144 replies to this topic
Posted 22 December 2002 - 10:06 PM
Gold is magical
Gold during Monatary/Debt inflation is an attractor of paper dollars because of Greed, due to decades of manipulation and propaganda this is a little hard to see but 1971 is where the 1000% inflation that has destroyed savings and maxed us out began and Inflationary Greed has worked it's magic...
Net result: Gold's relation to paper rises...
Gold during Monatary/Debt deflation is still an attractor of paper dollars because of desparation due to the collapse of manipulation and propaganda.
Net result: Gold's relation to paper rises even faster...
What causes Gold to Ultimatly drop in relation to paper?
The realization that the baker and the gas company will only accept paper in exchange for goods and services. (sell off)
Or confiscation/Centeral bank actions where the price of gold is set by law or manipulated.
I see at this time nowhere for Gold to go but up past it's recent historical highs...
I wouldn't day trade the stuff...
The demand for money never decreases, never... only availability and preference (Paper over gold or gold over paper)
Demand is very high and in a debt deflationary economic phase paper does not go up in price it starts disapearing, gold doesn't disapear.
The battle of paper vs. gold and gold is winning right now and will continue winning unless a machine that produces gold out of thin air is invented, France starts leaseing out their gold to save the US or some other miracle shows up. Or we reach the bottom at which point the gold holders/horders are convinced that an ounce of gold to buy a house is "worth it" and the sell off happens...
It's all nuts up down up down up down... pack the air sickness pills and a barf bag...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 22 December 2002 - 10:16 PM
[quote name='Jorma' date='Dec 22 2002, 05:52 PM'][/QUOTE]
Firstly this settlement was between New York State and the Street. The SEC had nothing to do with it. The settlement means nothing and will have no effect on the market. Nobody buys or sells on what the anal cysts say. Their pronouncements are just used by the casino players to game the market. The Street cannot be reformed. It's job is to sell the stock of it's clients, the corporations. Always was, always will be. Any reform meant to make it accountable to people would of necessity be socialism and is therefor impossible to consider. If the public would use the most basic common sense and understand that nobody employed by the Street serves the publics interest, but only their own, then everything would be fine. People however love to be conned.[/quote]
I think it's kind of of simplistic to say that these idiot anal cysts have no effect on the market. Maybe you've never been holding a stock that an ANALcyst upgraded or downgraded. I'll agree with you that the "independent" research is a "fartce", but the sheeple will listen to them nonetheless, for most don't think for themselves anyway.
Posted 22 December 2002 - 10:27 PM
I always thought the more tools you had in your tool box the better. Now I find out using fundamentals is dangerous. I have been long golds and short the qqq's since early 2001 based on fundamentals. I will remain so until the fundamentals and/or the technicals change. I think people like me scare Greeny much more than Greeny scares us. P.S. I resent the phrase "gold bug" it makes me seem like a "tech addict".
Posted 22 December 2002 - 10:33 PM
New stoolie here. Just made it official recently.
If possible, can someone here suggest the best way to buy physical gold? I see there are web sites, etc., but I wondered how the smart money buys. I also read a post where it was recommended to buy gold in a way that it is not traceable due to fears of a repeat of the 1933 ban.
If this answer is already posted somewhere else, perhaps someone can point me there.
Posted 22 December 2002 - 10:40 PM
Rayok, good one.
I'm looking to be a gold bug soon, just waiting for a sound entry point. It appears that you are a longer term investor, and that's great. You just got to have bearballs of steel and be willing to take all that our government has to throw at the velcro market vacuum. I will be using gold as just a hedge, though, so it won't be a major part of my account. I enjoy slinging the QQQ options mainly and just needed to hedge for currency devaluation in the near future.
I am real impressed with Doc's cmaps for the SPX. Too bad he didn't have any intraday for gold. I know, I'm asking too much.
Posted 22 December 2002 - 11:05 PM
US demand is holding up well, courtesy of SUVs. Remember that a lot of it's manufacturing has already disappeared overseas. Countries like China are importing more and more oil, so any loss of Western demand will at least be partially made up by these countries where the rate of car ownership is increasing.
I see the situation in Venezuela as being far more serious than the attention it is getting in the media.
The Gulf producers are afraid of increasing output in case the strike in Venezuela ends and the price of oil crashes by $10 in a matter of days with all the extra oil in the market.
There is also the question as to how much spare capacity the various OPEC countries have. The reality is unknown, theses governments keep figures about production/spare capacity/reserves very close to their chests.
There is also a time lag.
If the Gulf producers that probably do have a fair amount of spare capacity (Namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) decided that they would increase output, it would take quite a few weeks before this oil is being unloaded at a US port. The logistics are not simple. There are quite a number of empty tankers waiting to load Venezuelan oil. Tanker owners have to make some risky decisions. Do they wait? or Do the tanker owners with ships in or near the Middle-East load up and travel to the US?
Keep a close eye on the situation in Venezuela
Both sides have really dug their heals and there is a small but not tiny probability that this will take months to resolve (and don't forget Iraq!)
Worst Case Scenario:
I doubt that there is enough spare capacity in OPEC and non-OPEC to make up for both Venezuela AND Iraq. If both countries stop most of their exports for a few months, we will see a full-blown oil crisis in 2003.
I am currently long Santos (STO) and have a small paper profit.
(Australian Gas and oil producer)
Also have significant holdings of STO and Woodside Petroleum (WPL) in my superannuation (like 401k in Australia)
Posted 22 December 2002 - 11:17 PM
Again, I want to encourage all to open individual threads on Look Out Below or elsewhere on the board, when opening a separate thought. For example the the question about gold would be more likely to get an answer in the Gold Forum. Just go to the forum and click the new topic button to start a thread.
The board has an excellent search function as well. Click the search link above, and enter pertinent keywords, such as - buying physical gold. Something may come up.
One final thought. Doc has always taught that the sole function of analcysts was to be shills for the trading and market making arm of the borker. The borker loads up on inventory of a particular stock or group of stocks. The analcyst then goes out and tells the customers to buy the excess inventory, of course making up a bunch of convincing lies so that they will. The firm's traders then unload the stock.
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 11:33 PM
Don't know if any one is watching-but here comes the JAM JOB! Trade safe!
Posted 22 December 2002 - 11:58 PM
Merciless: Good to see you back. Without wanting to be abrasive I respectfully disagree with some of your points.
And it's not because the only time I have nearly been mugged was in CHICAGO - the shoe shine scam.
First on the tax effectiveness of a mortgage financed property.
Ordinarily I would agree. But everyone in America is thinking the same thing. Once everyone thinks the same thing, look out. Yes I know the tax deduction for my mortgage is nice and makes the net cashflow result better, but it is no good if you wear a wopping great capital loss.
Which leads me to my second point of disagreement - that
deflation can't result in property prices falling. Tell that to the Japs, Brits, etc.
As to the whole issue about our decline as a manufacturing force. I am unsure as to whether this is cause for long term
concern. Some of world's highest income per capita countries
are largely service economies. I guess I think we will be OK in the long term - at least I hope so for my kids sake. And I am certainly not packing my bags for China.
In relation to gold I am also confused. You have some great minds on both sides of the argument. For my mind I am bullish as their has been a worldwide consolidation of mining companies and whilst the world is using metals more effeciently, gold is clearly different to the other metals and
appears to have reached an inflection point. But I remain mindful of Brian4's 1920s/30s analaysis and the views of Vesselin.
Please feel to correct me, on any or all points.
But don't get me wrong I am still well and truly short.
Just not long on Gold (at least not yet) or positive on residential property.
Luck to all.
Posted 23 December 2002 - 12:18 AM
Like the thread and seem like a good bunch of people here, not to mention Eagles fans so I feel right at home.
My thoughts, if anyone gives a damn, are as follows:
Gold, love it. Caught the move in January (you dont know me so think I'm bullshitting, I dont care) caught it again by dumb luck in early October (my faves reached price targets). Loaded to the gills on October 12th because of the symmetric triangle on the HUI and have since been paring positions down since the big fat rally.
The chart looks like it has 195s coming, sounds crazy I know. What can I tell you...
daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J8967449,Y]&listNum=1]HUI Symmetric Triangle
This week's COT report showed the commercials go shorty like they haven't in years. We are talking about 72.19% of commercial positions are short. Blows away what was seen earlier this year in June when they were short to the tune of 71.2 - 71.4%. Since 1995 they haven't been as short as they are now by percentage. Closest was after September 11th when they took the percentage up to 72.03% on 135,505 contracts, now they are at 172,293 contracts. Gold promptly tanked afterwards as you can see below...
waclyyay[d20010801,20020101][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G]Gold after 9/11/01
Obviously, they are pulling out all the stops to keep gold down and this is where things start getting interesting. Fleischer comes out and says the strong dollar policy is still the law of the land, but Bernanke's speech said the exact opposite. The Ford adminsitration guys GDubs has put into place didn't know shit then and still don't so who knows what types of disasters they are brewing. Yet the masses are still trained to think gold only goes down. Most retailers are not buying gold and when I mention it to them, they ask if I am serious. I am.
We will get some garbage time type rally into the close of the year and the first week, just because so many dollars are pumped into the market by profit sharing plans, pensions, etc. This should keep the dollar from plunging into the abyss. Notice how it hasn't been able to cleanly break the lows seen on July 19th of this year and has been hovering in the 103s since. They have to keep it up, at least a little while longer.
A clean break below the 103s on the USD and it is time to make like Mr. T.
Posted 23 December 2002 - 12:25 AM
Well I see my charts look like catcrap, sorry.
And my computer is not helping, be right back with the correct links.
Talk amongst yourselves...
Posted 23 December 2002 - 12:45 AM
Back after a refreshing reboot...
Only to notice that my chart link is too long hence the problems. I'll beat this damn thing, just let me build up my strength.
The gold chart post 9/11 is significant because that was the previous high in commercial short positions as a percentage of total commercial positions (72.03%), until this week and the current figure of 72.19%. The POG dropped about 5.5% in three weeks following 9/11. Im expecting a similar trip this time around.
Im sure you guys can whip a chart up yourselves while I figure out a way to beat this thing....
Posted 23 December 2002 - 01:05 AM
Your spy graph, Bad link bud.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
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