Jorma Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 My first post here, so I'd like to bring up a topic which hasn't been discussed yet, the results of the SEC settlement. I've heard the pundits on Proctovision saying how this settlement will be good for the market, but I'd have to voice my opposition to this viewpoint, at least in the short run. I just find it hard to believe that ANALcysts will be able to continue to recommend buying stocks in companies with no earnings and selling at more than 5X sales. It could prompt wholesale downgrades based on valuation. I think we're just starting to see subscription to this new religion. Comments, anyone? Just another piece of a complex puzzle. As an addendum, wouldn't this ring even truer if fee-based research becomes a real occupation again, with those making the right calls being rewarded monetarily? Firstly this settlement was between New York State and the Street. The SEC had nothing to do with it. The settlement means nothing and will have no effect on the market. Nobody buys or sells on what the anal cysts say. Their pronouncements are just used by the casino players to game the market. The Street cannot be reformed. It's job is to sell the stock of it's clients, the corporations. Always was, always will be. Any reform meant to make it accountable to people would of necessity be socialism and is therefor impossible to consider. If the public would use the most basic common sense and understand that nobody employed by the Street serves the publics interest, but only their own, then everything would be fine. People however love to be conned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 B4, I always value your opinion. Tell me though, are you not concerned about the island top on POG? I wouldn't hesitate two seconds to bag profits now on the gold miners if we are likely to pick them up at a 10-15% discount on today's prices. Isn't that what we're all trying to do here - swing trade The charts suggest that the Hewey is due for a 15% retracement. Assume that quite a few people have caught onto the gold bull and looking to get onboard the bandwagon. Take RGLD for example. It has got support @ $18 and change. That's $4 or 18% south of Friday's close. Do the math - that's a lot of dough! I'm currently bidding 15% below market on the miners, but will buy with both hands as soon as the POG has confirmed that the break out through the Maginot Line was not a false break out and $325 is now support. Trade safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Pit Bull-I would suggest support is $321 not $325.- as long as POG stays over that number we are O.K.! Don't put to much faith in that island reversal-it's indicative of a change in short term trend-look at a 1 and 5 yr chart or the one that was posted earlier today and you can see the clean breakout. Also POG trades inversely with the $ which is in a clear downtrend-GOLD is clearly overbought and will go sideways and down a bit to work it off-conversely the $ is Dover Sole and due for a bounce-and will go sideways and up for a bit. Any out of the blue event on the international scene will propel POG upward wether it's overbought or not. IMHO this is only the beginning of the gold BULL not the end. Now RGLD is a gold royalty company that mines miners so it leads on the way up and it leads on the way down-much like the triple Q's relationship with NDX. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 . . . If the public would use the most basic common sense and understand that nobody employed by the Street serves the publics interest, but only their own, then everything would be fine. People however love to be conned. Jorma, Never were truer words spoken. It is so simple yet, so hard for sheeple to accept. These guys do not go on procto with their "recommendations" as a public service. Proctovision is nothing more than an all day infomercial disguised as financial news reporting. Most of the mainstream reportage (which is, of course, sponsored by the MFs and Brokerages) is this way. but, As long as one understands this and has a real understanding of what is going on in the market; why and where it may go (I subscribe to Dr. Stool's daily Anals and follow the various Stoolville threads to get mine), one can really play it to ones money making advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Kudos to whoever posted that e wave gold chart (I saw it this morning and am too lazy to go back and see who dunnit) it got me thinking. All of us gold bulls are taking a stand on gold. The market doesnt care what we think it should do. Are we letting our emotions as bears cloud our judgement? I spent some time considering this question. It was hard at first because I believe so strongly in the fundamentals and the inverse correlation to the broad market. However, in investigating the small caps which are great gauges, one can see that they are not telegraphing strength that is for sure. In fact those charts have been sick for quite some time and even after golds impressive move they cant even get close to their recent highs. What was a frenzy a few months ago is now barely even a pulse. It is ominous indeed that these shares are not making new highs along with gold especially after such an impressive and supposedly important breakout. It might be wise to take Adam Hamiltons fancy self important rhetoric with a grain of salt. The action is not supporting our stand and the action is all that matters. As we know "markets can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent." Lets Discuss. Also Id like to hear from some e wavers. I really hate e waves due to their subjective nature. If you zoom in or out you get a whole new count and the count can often be interpretted many different ways. If you look at the follow up chart that doc posted you can adjust the ewaves backward to make it look like it just finished and is now in a bull. The count on that chart looks suspect to me. Any thoughts on this? (After reading conquer the crash I believe there is a good case for ewave but Im still not convinced that they are useful for trading) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Flaming Turds- It's been quite awhile, but I recall having seen a table that tracked the increase in short interest on the leading unhedged miners. In some cases, such as for GG, short interest increased over the summer by approx 4000%. Not a typo, but my memory could be foggy on this. Because of the miniscule market cap of the entire HUI, these stocks are very easily manipulated. So, for that matter, is gold, but HUI lacks the international base of bidders that the yellow metal has. I have no doubt whatsoever that HUI and XAU stayed low despite the breakout in the metal because of aggressive shorting. This was but one small skirmish in a war. I have not sold anything on this runup. Don't like the chart? Follow the fundamentals. The fed is openly discussing "running the printing press" (Bernanke's words) and inflating itself out of a Kondratieff deflation. Gold is a buy. It has to be. Inflation? Buy gold and miners. Deflation? Buy gold and possibly miners. It's a commodity, it's nobody's paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Hamilton and Sinclair may have indeed dug deep graves for their respective credibilities........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Turds-Don't try to define the direction of the gold market by looking at small caps-most of the small caps mine the public not the metal-.. The problem with the small miners is they way to many shares outstanding and small ore bodies generally with lower grades-hence they do not make MONEY- Let's look at one that does- GLG just made a lovely new high because they are a small cap that heap leaches-the cheapest way to mine-and when the price moves dramatically upward they make the same or better dollars then a NEM or an AEM. Also a lot of small caps are exploration companies always trying to raise money to explore or try and define an ore body on a piece of ground they hold to catch the brass ring (most don't). The medium and big caps always lead the small caps day in the sun is at the end of a bull market when the sheep who can't afford the big caps pile in and buy the dream-just like it was on Nazquack-now Elliott waves- either work very well or not at all-generally at major turning points they are right on-their record on GOLD historically is absymal and ditto on stocks-two of Prechters calls on individual stocks this year - RD to collapse and EMC to soar-were laughably wrong. Just look at history-when times are BAD gold moves up-when times are good gold collapses-if you think there is a new bull around the corner avoid GOLD-if you believe the BEAR-then GOLD is your best friend. trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Greg that is something Ive wondered about. It seems to me that the boys would be shorting the hell out of them all. I agree with your take as Im a gold bull too but as weve seen fundamentals dont matter. What matters is the tape. It is discouraging to see such weakness in the face of gold making big moves. I may close some of my position to see how this resolves. Maybe shift it to short the S&P or some of my other targets. Brian Ill have to check out GLG. I prefer the small caps for the lagging reason you mention. If this is the great bull they will catch up and I'll see a better return by holding long since I didnt get in at the bottom for the large and mids. Small caps often achieve a higher return over the long run since they have more potential upside and are easier to get into for the herd. I just find it odd that they are reacting so poorly compared to just a few months ago. Its like a bug in the matrix. You are following some of the large caps closely I imagine, are they performing to your expectations? Do you have a source for commercial gold put info? That would be interesting Im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 It seems that there are a lot of gold bugs using fundamentals as a defense of holding a long position. Fundamentals matter for long term investors, as in investors that hold for years. It seems that most people here are swing traders. Fundamentals matter if you are swing trading a company's stock in the sense that you don't want to be holding stock in a company overnight in a company that may go bankrupt tomorrow. But if you are holding gold overnight based on fundamentals in the economy, you need to remember that markets can stay irrational for a long time, and you can be underwater waiting for the market to eventually be rational. Technicals is what matters. Read a book on Granville. He had some bad calls (as in missing the bull market in the 80s), but he did have a 9 year stretch of great calls based on technicals only. Trading based on fundamentals is very dangerous with guys like Greenie that can cause some serious whiplash. I trade the indices based on technicals only. Everything else is just noise. I just wanted to hedge inflation or deflation by buying some gold in the near future, but I definitely want to have a timely entry. The chart I posted earlier that had the ewave count on gold was mainly to show the trendlines on the monthly chart. I'm not an ewave guy, so for all I know that ewave count could be way off. I just wanted to see what others thought about the channel that gold was in on the monthly chart. Hamilton seems to be all giddy because the weekly chart's trendline was broken to the upside. I think the monthly chart is much more important, though. For anyone that missed it, here is the monthly chart of gold that I was referring to. Also, what do you all think about the COT Chart on gold? It appears that the commercial boys are incredibly short and they seem to be usually right, but maybe this time is different. <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 I just spent 15 minutes trying to figure out what the hell had been causing this thread to expand to double screeen width. I finally found it. OK guys, no more than 15 unbroken bwahaha's per line. Thankyou! (Not all of us have those fancy 21 inch flat screen monitors. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 23, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 I can't believe that some here cannot fathom the possibility of the gold stocks rallying more than a couple of weeks. PNRA can rally uninterrupted for 3 years, gaining 400%. QueerLogic can go from $18 to $45 in less than a month. YHOO can jump from $8 to $17 in less than two weeks. Yet you guys don't think that GG can make it from $10 to an area past $15 over the next couple of weeks? What are you guys smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 zzzzZZZ dull & boring here today on the market, the ticker barely ticking. Housework looks more exciting (yes THAT BAD). Can't say I'm surprised, early close tomorrow, 2 days off for Christmas which brings us to Friday where everyone will be too hungover to care so this week a writeoff tradingwise. Stocks are slightly up or slightly down (yawn). Golds are marginally green. I see POG doing a little rise. Will be back with a post if something riveting happens but don't hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Oh yeah it was slinger that posted that. Kudos for the cot too. Very interesting. I reviewed some mid and large cap charts today and the action just isnt like a PNRA (those stocks used to rally hard on good news and earnings-ok maybe not real earnings as in YHOO lol) maybe if people realized the only real bread is gold then we could get on with it Do any of you canadian types trade the TSE golds at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted December 23, 2002 Report Share Posted December 23, 2002 Jorma, that post you just threaded here should be a letter head for all the sites in my opinion. Doc should be alerted. If properly understood, it serves to take the emotion out of the trading game and just score the reality. It is priceless and needs to be read daily as a reminder in my opinion. It should be a watchword to our faith here at Bowel Movement Central, in essence it is our equivalent to the Gettysburg Address, The Torah and the Triangle offense all rolled into one. I nominate it for post of the year. May your Christmas droppings be solid,soft,smooth and easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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