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#61 wndysrf

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:48 PM

Brian4:

Pay no attention to mutual fund outflows. They have been very anemic give the 40% market decline from the highs.

And don't forget the HedgeHogs.

The massive Repo build courtesy of the GSE's has piled unlimited money into the institutional speculating arena, which I'm sure more than offsets Joe Retail's slow exodus from the fund complex.

There will be no real selling in the market until the dollar collapses and foreigners pull out, or if the liquidity bubble suddenly reverses and turns the GSE/Repo Circle Jerk from a virtuous circle into a vicious death spiral.

I don't know what will set it off, but for now, we can assume that the market can be Repo Pumped indefinitely, and individual mania stocks like PIXR can be driven to $100/share.
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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:57 PM

Pitbull, agree, no hurry to be a buyer right now but if already in, may as well sit tight...

B4, this from an article on Prudent Bear site:

"An USA Today survey of 143 new home buyers in the San Francisco Bay Area found a growing number giving up on the stock market and turning to real estate. 27% of the respondents said stock sales were a very important source of their down payment, which is four times the number just a year ago. "

Might be where some of the funds are flowing? This little horror story from same article:

"One sign that residential real estate in the Bay Area is getting frothy is that 56% of the buyers bought because they feared getting left behind. The article included a few highlights that capture the mindset of these homebuyers. There was a single mother of two that paid 17% over the asking price. She cashed in life insurance policies and borrowed from her 401(k) account. She was quoted saying, "I finally just decided: I need to jump in," and "Home investment is where the earnings are right now."

EEEK!

#63 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 09:13 PM

My friend who held NT all the way down recently decided to sell everything and put all of her money into a 1 million dollar house which she plans to refurbish and sell for a profit. Her sister, who paid 2 million for a HK apartment which is now worth half of that suggested the idea that she could double her money in one year. I have a feeling...oh yes...that sister number two might get whacked for a 50% haircut as well.

History rhymes. But having said that, I'd rather have my money in a house than in the stock market - IF I was planning to live there.

I believe that the abofve poster is exactly correct about what is fueling the housing market and deflating the stock market.

What do you think the next bubble will be once interest rates start rising, eh? Deflationary proxy stocks, then housing, then...umm...perhaps *cough* GOLD?

#64 PileDriver

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 09:39 PM

I laugh at all these people who once chased the NAZ bubble, got burned and are now chasing after the next bubble to burst Real Estate, willing to pay way over ask and go heavily into debt because of the great "investment return" potential.

Hey, let's really maximize our existing 401K stock investment losses. I wanna be poor!

#65 Ned38

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:06 PM

Greetings Stoolies

Happy Holidays to all.

I have been reading this board for a while and think it's great.
Thanks to all contributors, proctologists and interns.

If I may chime in, I see good arguments and charts for further continuation of the tankage as well as a breakout and rally for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks.

I know we are stitting on fib support on the Naz and just under the 50. I also see the bullish descending wedge on the Naz.

Flip a coin




One thing I have not seen discussed anywhere is the striking similiarity to 1990/1991. Bush vs. Hussein #1

Back then we spent the late summer of '90 and early fall worrying about the Mid East and the Naz went down from a 470ish top in July to a low of 322 in mid October.

It then ran more or less into December and then stayed flat until early January where it saw a little drop rather than a rally.

Gold also topped out late December 90

And here we are again with a Naz going nowhere and Gold looking toppy. And just like back then we are trying to guess if/when the war will start.

There was no rally the 1st 2 weeks of January

But.....................................................................

In 1991 the bombing of Baghdad began on Jan 16th.

Everyone knows you have to conduct war in Iraq during our winter because of the heat. The tension was building.

The moment the bombing began the Naz promptly went on a 3 month rocket ride gaining 50% !!!!!!

Gold promptly went into a tailspin finally bottoming in June.

America went long biggggggggggggg time.


Bush/Hussien/Fall rally to Dec/Gold rally to DEc./No Santa Rally/No Jan effect/Americans wintering in Iraq


Deja Vu all over again?.....Acid Flashback ?........Coincidence?

Opinions?

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:08 PM

Aha!! The NEXT bubble? Well, financialsense thinks it will be commodities...

"This brings me back to gold and silver, oil and natural gas, and other commodities. They are all in their first stage of a new bull market. This has yet to be recognized by the masses or those on Wall Street. Very few Wall Street firms even have commodity trading departments. Most of them were sold, closed down or abandoned years ago, so they arenít prepared for the new bull market in commodities. Despite the recent run up in precious metals, energy and grains this year, this is just the beginning. These markets, I believe, will continue to rise for the remainder of this decade. However, a word of caution--they wonít go straight up. "

Asset/Index 2002 Returns

Gold Bullion +18.96%
Silver +4.00%
HUI +109.92%
XAU +38.51%
CRB +21.60%
Oil +30.95%
Natural Gas +58.78%
Cocoa +75.10%
Soybeans +31.58%
Wheat +13.80%

So they saying bullmarket atm but said elsewhere could turn into a bubble because there's so much money sloshing around in the system.

http://www.financial...s/2002/0405.htm

In depth article for those with the interest and the time....

#67 PileDriver

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:18 PM

Here's my take on what will happen if war breaks out.

That which is currently in a bull market will soar, that which is currently in a bear market will crash.

#68 summoner

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:30 PM

Slinger well worth reading Adam Hamilton over at zeal for some perspective on gold
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#69 buttugly

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:46 PM

Ned38: After 9/11 the markets were closed for a while.
And I read an excellent article that analyzed stock market returns in various periods of war/crisis/shocks. Including such times as Pearl Harbour.

It's conclusion was that the determining factor was the prevailing trend. When the prevailing trend was up, then the market continued to rise after the war/crisis/shock.

The article concluded that as the prevailing trend prior to 9/11
was down they expected the market to continue trending down.

So the best a war can generate is a mini-rally before a resumption of the downtrend.

#70 slinger

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:52 PM

Thanks aussiebear and summoner for the replies.

It appears that Hamilton is looking at the weekly chart to determine the bull market in gold. I think the monthly chart is a better indicator, so until the monthly channel is busted higher, I will step back and be a gold spectator instead of a gold speculator. Until the monthly channel is broken to the upside, this recent rally could be proven to be a bear market rally in gold. I'd rather wait for a safer entry point, even though my entry point may be at a higher price.

Everything in the economy and news is pointing to gold going higher, but patience is a must, since I live by the ole Granville sayings that are in my signature.

Be nimble, enter cautiously, exit rapidly.

#71 summoner

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 10:55 PM

Slinger look for entry at the 200 dma IMHO
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#72 torah man

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 11:09 PM

well, i closed my qqq puts and some of the spx puts.

went to close thet klac puts friday pm and only sold one of the five contacts, the others are hanging. i will check the premarket and decide to pull them or let them go.

still holding hmy with jan 15 calls sold against it.

still holding spx puts in various denominations.

hope everyone maximizes their upcoming time off to be with family.

be well and trade safe.

#73 Ned38

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 11:12 PM

Re: similiarities between 1990 and now, some kind soul just linked me to this.

http://www.murphymor...rket_watch.html

Maybe I am not the only one thinking about this.

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 11:52 PM

John Murphy is a rational human so I'm interested what he says. The only thing is I'm not so sure the current market action, particularly gold, has much to do with war. I reckon its more of a reaction to the economy and a growing distrust of paper. I don't think Merciless's reasons for buying Krugerrands was because of the impending war but more because of a potential run on banks. Enlighten us Merciless..

Oil is a bit of a puzzle too. Oil futures may have soared but charts of individual oil companies listed here have been sideways to down for 18 mths or so. So maybe the oil futures traders have their own little casino, dunno... As I have said before if the US goes into the depression scenario then where will the demand for oil come from if 3 out of 4 factories are closed and the you-beaut motors are repossessed? Not to mention more than a few strict budgets on heating bills..

????

#75 brian4

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Posted 22 December 2002 - 12:06 AM

Just wait for the lousy retail numbers in January-As my wife and I finished off the final odds and sods for family and friends today-the malls were steady but certainly not busy! A Wilson ski parka I looked at 6 weeks ago at $199.- and a week ago at $99.- became mine today at $36.-. With forced discounting like that the retailers are whistling past the graveyard. You can move merchandise with deep discounts but you can't make money or repay debt. Cash is already KING-Trade Safe!





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