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#46 Wyatt Burp

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 02:00 PM

Has anyone else considered the possibility that we already had the santa rally? Could it be that with crapvision etal talking about it, "they" decided to push this pos higher than it should have gone in November instead, which is I think when the 10-13 wk cycle should have started heading down? I know Im probably asking for trouble but I'm still thinking that we go against public opinion and stay down the next week or so. Just my thoughts, enjoy readin' everyone's posts here. Happy Holidays to all.

#47 richmtn

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 02:16 PM

"My last thought is about Barton Biggs. This moron was once again paraded on Crapvision this morning as some sort of a guru. The man was bearish in the bull market and all of a sudden he is a genius. I dont get it. Anyway, he gets on TV and states that he thinks we go higher because everyone is bearish. This man is smoking the wrong stuff. Every one of my sentiment indicators is flashing red right now because of the extreme optimisim out there by the wrong-way crowd. Did Mr. Biggs watch as investors bought up 50 cent stocks and ran them up in the past few weeks? That's bearishness? How about every strategist, every person going on Crapvision and saying "I AM BULLISH." I really do believe it is medication time for Mr. Biggs."

Gary Kaultbaum of Tradingmarkets.com

#48 wndysrf

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 02:24 PM

Joe Retail continues to be Wall Struck.

The great ongoing saga of corporate swindles has no end.

Not a day goes by when we uncover evidence of hucksters, shysters, and charlatans raping the sheeple on Cheat Street.

The CEO's of our mania stocks consistently outclass all market technicians as the most reliable market timers.

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According to today's Barron's, the top two officers of Hotels.com were able to offload gigantic chunks of their stock at the EXACT TOP!!

Rob Diener (President) blew out 100,000 shares at $75/share for a cool $7.5 million on December 2.

David Litman (CEO) blew out 75,000 shares at $75/share for $5.6 million on December 2.
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#49 DrStool

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 02:30 PM

Because Buddhadopping's last post made me pee myself, I moved it over to LOB.

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 03:20 PM

Burp and others may have it right... If we end on a down to flat week, the financial press will become even greater carnival barkers. Afterall, from these lower price points, they will scream the 3rd year election cycle, and the first 3 or 6 or whatever days of the year indicator, etc, etc. As they ramp up the first two weeks of the year, it will all seem so consistant a playout with their predictions and historic representations. I imagine rumblings of cap gains reductions retroactive to beginning in Jan 2003 will also be openly discussed on the dog and pony shows, and that too will motivate folks to put those dollars to work right away..

Happy holidays to all of you, I have learned a tremendous amount from you all and my family and I am sincerely grateful. Health and prosperity to you.

Thank you Doc for this venue, my renewal started last week.

#51 DrStool

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 04:14 PM

Many tanks to you Hadjin!

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#52 wndysrf

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 04:32 PM

After reviewing the Weak End Anals, my conclusions are the following:

The Treasury Yield chart looks like AMGN. Just completed a 2nd wave down, and will be making a 3rd drive to a top to complete a bearish wedge.

This is consistent with a rally in equities into the year end.

After the "3 drives" is finished, the yields will tank and make new lows, as stocks go into a freefall.

Everyone is expecting higher interest rates. Maybe we will get the opposite, and rates could tank, causing all kinds of problems for the mortgage industry. The entire Mortgage Complex is currently hedged for rising rates.

The weekly HUI and XAU appear to have a doji top just below the prior highs. Its either a top or the halfway point of the move.

Given the price action of the individual equities in the HUI, I think they are consolidating, ready to advance on the next leg higher. Sentiment for this type of move is perfect, since most gold longs have sold to preserve gains.

So what makes more sense? A rally in Treasuries and gold at the same time? Or does gold collapse?

Feedback please.....
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#53 summoner

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 04:48 PM

Mark, Adam Hamilton discusses the new gold bull in his weekly editorial at ZEAL...wish I had started reading him a year earlier... I agree with Neely we push 950-980 and then down the tubes ...980 is currently the intersection between the long term downtrend resistance line and the current uptrend resistance and also happens to be an important fibernacho number...just havent convinced myself enuff to go long yet with spx calls. Covered all shorts and puts this week except my JPM puts. Wherever the next top occurs IMHO it will be the short op of a lifetime. Will be looking to add SPX puts and MXIM, and ELX shorts as those two will be taken out to the woodshed for the final time
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#54 brian4

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 05:41 PM

Mark- I believe treasuries will rally with the market into the 2nd week of the new year-Gold will consolidate during this time and drift lower and sideways-the dollar should rally with the market-then we top out Jan10-20-and have 3rd wave down with gold making new highs into March, April. From a technical persepective the WORST thing that could happen now is a dump-the market is just not set up for a large drop. DA BOYZ want to distribute into the high so they can be short for the big drop. Summoner- I am long SPX but adding SPX March and April puts as the market rises-seems the high percentage play to me! Trade Safe!

#55 Goldmember

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 06:27 PM

It would be nice to have catalogued and archived videostreams of analcysts lies and duplicity. Especially the "Queen of Distribution" Abby Justa Colon.

Techies and Doc, embedded videostreams on the website? No player needed, the juiciest of blatant lies right on the webpage, activate with merely a mouse-over the image.Clipstream has some interesting stuff that may be feasible. This could be outageous fun with accompanying Stoolville audio renditions blended in. Like the wet fart file right after Abby gives her latest, what, oh yeah, "S&P 500 to 1250" call. Where would the video clips be sourced and copyright issues would be possible hurdles. Info at Clipstream. :D
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 06:53 PM

Mark,

I think we'll see a pullback in POG to at least $335, since that would represent a healthy 60% retracement of the rally from the $323 low recorded on December 10. Preferably I'd also like to see POG test the support at $325-330. As the Maginot Line is approached we are sure to see a lot nervousness among the gold bugs. Some may bail and bag whatever profits are left. A lot of speculators have no doubt been attracted to gold. Even Comstock Partners have initiated a small long position despite remaining sceptic as always.

http://www.comstockf...roup=Home&aol=1

Sinclair advises against buying gold miners now and Bontchev is screaming from the top of his lungs - The technicals are a screaming sell! ThorAss is still holding off for another stab at 155 on the HUI, but considering the overbought indicators on all gold miners I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull back into the New Year. In conjunction with the completion of the right shoulder gold should take off again. The broader indices will tank and the dollar implode. By then I hope to be 60% long the golds, 20% short the broads and 20% in cash.

Happy Holidays :)

#57 slinger

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 07:53 PM

For the ones that think gold is in a bull market now, what do you think about this chart? Thanks for the comments. I was thinking about buying some gold on a good pullback, but I'm having second thoughts now.

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:21 PM

Nice chart Slinger..but note the downsloping channel, that's bullish. Sooner or later it should break through the top and I'm thinking sooner rather than later. Gold has made it's move imo. The 24 hr POG chart also making the same pattern, ie downsloping channel. The $USD chart is such a dog that I doubt there is any hope at all for meaningful upside and it moves inversely to gold.

Pitbull you said miners Dover Sole, do you mean overbought? If the latter I agree in the very short term but also have to be careful in bull markets of calling tops. Just when you think it's about to get the royal flush it pops higher.

We're all in different trading time frames here but I'm hanging on to my gold call which is well in the money now. Have to say part of holding is because I can't get a fair price. The punters are thinking a pullback too I would say so don't want to get involved. I'm fairly confident that gold will resume an upward trajectory shortly.

#59 brian4

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:23 PM

We all know the mothers milk that drives markets up is money! well listen to this-in the yr. 2,000 net inflow to mutual funds was 285.2 Billion-in the yr 2002 (this very year) the stats are in-outflow 27.2 Billion-inflow-13.4 Billion-net outflow for year 13.8 Billion-source Weiss Report. Now as old Ronnie Reagan used to say a Billion seconds is a 125 years-two years from now-I expect 75% of the funds will be belly up and the rest bucket shop status-Trade Safe!

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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:39 PM

aussiebear,

Thanx FUR pointing out my little mistake ;)

I believe the miners will be reluctant to break
out FUR REAL before POG proves that $330
has now become support rather than resistance.
I'm currently bidding 15% below market on the
miners, but will buy with both hands as soon as
POG has confirmed that the break out through
the Maginot Line was not a false break out. :unsure:





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