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Glossary Part 2


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#331 Sphinxter

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Posted 07 September 2003 - 11:06 PM

Well everyone. Looks like we have another week of 'sustaining the unsustainable' in front of us.

What will it be? Gold slams and dollar jams?

A bond rally out of nowhere?

Stock Market floors put in by our favorite mysterious future pit buyer(s)?

Economic reports reports routed through the WH, EPA-like, for the appropriate spin before release to the economic masses?

Fingers, toes, and noses jammed into every crack in the dyke. Sure hope a big-one doesn't spring open suddenly, 'cause we're almost out of appendages. :o

Good luck trading everyone. :)

#332 crooked_analyst

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Posted 07 September 2003 - 11:08 PM

Pidgeon...visit us in So Cal (yes...that is at least interest in a So Cal meet)

We are PSYCHO here!

We buy HUGE SUV's and think nothing of spending $50+ just to fill them.

We are narcissistic to the Nth degree, not even noticing anyone or anything.

We use cell phones EVERYWHERE literally hoping for a phone call from the same people we see all of the time.

We return big screen TV's because they "smell bad".

We clean our carpets until the water itself used to clean can be drank as "drinking water".

We buy marble tables and aristocratic furniture in hopes of later finding out that, we aren't dreaming, we REALLY ARE royalty...

We drive gigantic trucks with flying saucer rims and 20-26" wheels and tires. Meanwhile, the credit card bill for $8000 for the tire and rim combination comes in and we try to figure out how being a Circuit City camcorder salesman is going to pay the bills.

Out here, we live off our parents retirement savings (what little was left in their 401k) and their "housing bubble" priced home that they sold. Meanwhile, the poor parents move east and live in 200 degree weather in Las Vegas and Arizona where housing is still relatively cheap.

We buy huge diamond earing sets for $1500 dollars to wear even though cubic zirconias look the same except under a microscope.

We buy laptops, TV's DVD players, home theatre systems or virtually any electronic item we can get that will have that 0% for 12 months sticker on it.

We go on lavish vacations even though we have nothing saved, have car payments, haven't paid files for taxes in 10+ years, etc.


I personally am not a trader, (I am more interested in precious metals and maybe a few bond funds) but it would be interesting to meet people with some common sense in a world is insanity...

My Wife has a Company car.....not bad, insurance included....we just traded a 2001 Tahoe LT, 23K miles for a 2003 Subarine LT w/ entertainment pkg. $38K ...he paid $25K...cost me $13K cash.......he's happy, I'm ecstatic....what a crock. The game will continue until the last dollar is spent....what do I know?...I'm part of the problem.

#333 Crapper John

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Posted 07 September 2003 - 11:27 PM

This looks like an explosion about to happen.

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#334 5thelement

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Posted 07 September 2003 - 11:34 PM

OK, I'm taking inventory now.

Southern And Central Kalifornia Association of Short Sellers

SACKASS????

So far, we got:

wndysrf
Pee Brain
Crooked anal cyst
Scottcardiff
Old Habits
BartheBear
BARE (maybe)

All West Coasters please sign up here and add your name to the list.

We'll find one of the hot restaurants in Newport Beach and take some photos with some KLAC and NVLS look-a-likes.

You know the type:

1. Shrink Wrapped Rib Cage
2. Extraordinary Breasts
3. Stick Arms
4. Drywall Flat Stomach
5. Low Self Esteem

Wyndsrf:

I fly into LA la land every week for work.
If you're really gonna organize a SACKASS, I'd love to meet up!

regards, :D

#335 BarBu

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 12:11 AM

House price history

chart source (interactive)

http://www.economagi...e/cenc25/c25m01
http://www.economagi....exe/fedstl/pop

BarBu - those charts would seem to show that house prices are in line with population growth. Unfortunately, that's a trick o' the graph (note the very different scales on the left axes).

What's important are the relative slopes of the two graphs. Using the trusty eyeball on your graphs squint-estimating that the house prices go from 18,000 to 180,000 we can derive that the slope is equivalent to a growth rate (slope) of 5.8% over 41 periods (42 years).

Performing the same trusty calc on population we find that it's gone from 190,000,000 to 290,000,000 for an annual growth rate of 1.0%.

Is it reasonable to conclude is that 1% base population growth leads to 5.8% house price increases? :unsure: I'm not so sure.

Perhaps a chart of the M3 growth would have a slope that provides a better correlation?

Sphinxter,

Thanks your suggestion, I replaced Population with M3, here is the chart.

http://www.economagi...exe/fedstl/m3sl

The link http://www.economagic.com provides many interesting data, you may use Search function to find unlisted data.

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#336 BAREister

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 12:20 AM

aw, shucks, FURget Las Vegas...

There's a LOT of inexpensive housing in Appalachia!!!


Say! Would someone attending NYCASS please report back to The BARE whether Mr TwoScrewsLoose STILL has beady little eyes AFTER he's had three or four stiff drinks in 'im?

Tia!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#337 BAREister

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 12:24 AM

CrASSh™???

There ain't gonna be no stinkin' crASSh™!!!

The Shrub's behind the controls of the moon rocket!!!

Magoo is his copilot!


"Never short a Republican president."

Anyone heard from Martin Weiss lately?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#338

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 12:48 AM

OK, I'm taking inventory now.

Southern And Central Kalifornia Association of Short Sellers

SACKASS????

So far, we got:

wndysrf
Pee Brain
Crooked anal cyst
Scottcardiff
Old Habits
BartheBear
BARE (maybe)
Hadjin

All West Coasters please sign up here and add your name to the list.

We'll find one of the hot restaurants in Newport Beach and take some photos with some KLAC and NVLS look-a-likes.

You know the type:

1. Shrink Wrapped Rib Cage
2. Extraordinary Breasts
3. Stick Arms
4. Drywall Flat Stomach
5. Low Self Esteem

I'm in Corona Del Mar and would love to join the Newport affair. May I suggest Gulfstream, or the Quiet Woman or Josh Slokums ? Lots of "qualifying" venues...:)

#339 Jimbo

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 01:00 AM

WHAT A BOTTOM REALLY LOOKS LIKE

This is from a newsletter calling the 1949 bottom by E George Schaefer (any relation to Bernie???) - based on DOW theory:

An increasingly bullish factor in recent statistics has been the trend toward higher yields. At the intra-day lows of the past week, the 30 Dow-Jones industrials showed an average yield of 6.91%, while the 20 Dow-Jones rail stocks showed 9.12%. These high yields are approaching the extreme highs in yields recorded on only three other occasions during the past 17 years


Dividend yields of 7- 9% - those were the days.

These sought of yields are nowhere to be seen at the moment.
timoleon

#340 Metamucil

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 01:35 AM

Bullish foreign currency plays, quite soon.
Bull flags on monthly big picture. C-xeu is dollar, in Euros.









"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#341 Jimi

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 01:44 AM

I personally am not a trader, (I am more interested in precious metals and maybe a few bond funds) but it would be interesting to meet people with some common sense in a world is insanity...

Same here.

Groovy on the Westside,

Jimi
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#342 BarBu

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 02:02 AM

Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit

No worries. Everything is fine.


purdymouth
The whole commentary quoted by FY lacks of rigid data, could be written by an "impressionist".

The attached chart, gives some rough idea.

Federal Debt: Held by Foreign & International Investors; End of Month Totals; Billions of Dollars, NSA
http://www.economagi.../fedstl/fdhbfin

Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors
http://research.stlo.../FDHBFIN/5/5yrs

More detail data can be traced via

Posted Image

Office of Market Finance

http://www.ustreas.g...management/qrc/

http://www.ustreas.g...ve/2003-May.pdf

Their listing is a little bit late, only covers up to first quarter, hard to judge.

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  • s1.jpg


#343 Metamucil

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 02:08 AM

DROOY just cleared a longer-term fibo line. I own it and intend to own more, should ~2.59 hold as shport.
Monthly


XAU inverted head and shoulder pattern is powerful. A sharp pullback would clearly be within a secular bull, as Doc accurately points out. Daily and hourly for that.

Monthly


The trend is up, until proven otherwise. 13 day support must hold.
Daily


Morning shakeout? :o
Hourly

"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#344

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Posted 08 September 2003 - 05:15 AM

Maxxi, thanks for posting the helpful link to the gold/PM charts. The comment on BGO's chart -- that while many are looking for a sector pullback, PM stocks seem to be signalling otherwise -- is noticeable even to a non-technician like me.  Assuming it starts at 205, where do you see the A-B-C pullback on HUI?  Would this be around 160-175 range?

A point 120.44

B point 157.82

C point 140.68

A 1:1.618 gives you a target of 201 and change.

A 1:1.618 equals an immediate reversal.

As has been discussed earlier there's a lot of rotation going on in the golds.

That said there may still be bargains out there but on the whole HUI should correct soon.

XAU is not that stretched. It can still keep trucking north but will likely pull back or consolidate at best if HUI corrects.

I bought AEM last Friday (in case gold shoots straight to $400).

AEM is one of very few gold equities that's not stretched and does not have a lot of unfilled gaps below.

For targets I use fibonaccis (the only forward looking indicator) ie. 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 but also pay attention to confluence (agreement between two trends) and pivots.

Remember, this is traditionally the strongest month for golds and this is a roaring bull market.

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  • hui.jpg






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