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#46 Yaryman

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 10:37 PM

When does news like this finally collapse the matrix?

"SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Gray Davis strongly suggested Wednesday that he will propose tax increases to address the state's budget shortfall, which he said has soared to $34.8 billion nearly $14 billion more than was estimated four weeks ago."

http://www.latimes.c.....ome-headlines

The government of the 5th largest economy in the world is facing a budget short fall equal to 1/3 its previous year's budget.

Is this what Easy Al calls a soft spot?

#47 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 10:39 PM

Choose your picks carefully, should you be foolish enough to decide to go long...
The current state of business in chips, for example, is such that the T.A.M. (Total available market) is still shrinking, along with A.S.P.s (average selling prices). This morning I exchanged greetings with one of the leading chip merchant's WW VP of Sales, bottom line - the only way to gain market share is to take it from your competitor...

I fully expect a few chip companies to announce bankruptcies in the first quarter... I'd be real careful buying some of the star names of yesteryear that now trade in the penny (sub-$5 ) as they may soon fold...

MU's burning a lot of cash folks, don't be surprised if things don't turn around in a hurry if they go bankrupt as well... It's a dangerous time out there, things look cheap, but they ain't...

#48 PileDriver

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 10:47 PM

Sure there is always "pop risk" but I wouldn't be caught dead being dong this POS. Hence there's my answer: short/bear fund, like it or not.

Butt, those eco numbers are candy-ass spun, twisted, distorted lies.

http://www.safemoney.../home/daily.asp

#49 The End

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 10:55 PM

Pile and everyone,

Even though i say we got a shot at going up a bit, know this. I believe we have to go to 4000 on the dow and i fur one will NEVER be 100% long. 30% maybe. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#50 buttugly

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 10:59 PM

"Banks Are Havens (And Other Myths)," Gretchen Morgenson writes: "Since the bear market began in March 2000, investors have been told that even if the economy suffered, the risks of investing in bank stocks were far lower than they had been in the recession of 1990....

As of June (02), banks had $1 trillion in outstanding commercial and industrial loans, according to Federal Reserve data.

http://www.themilita...632/663256.html

Looking to add to existing bank shorts with a short position on XLF. The top ten holdings of XLF include C, AIG FNM, AXP and JPM.

#51 sheet4brain

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 11:20 PM

Aussie, what is a chook? When we know that, I assume we'll know why it would lie under a house..... :D

'Chook' is the aussie slang for 'chicken'. Some of the older houses here (presumably Aussiebear's also) have some space underneath. In the terrible heatwave we've been having (since yesterday 40 C/104 F), under the house is not a bad place to be for those 'chooks'.

#52 sheet4brain

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 11:25 PM

Phew in a heat wave here...all the chooks lying around under the house looking half dead. How you holding out S4B?

The market here is looking more bullish than it has for the last few trading days. The index has moved up to the next line of resistance and attempting to break through, in fact it just has, let's see if it holds. The golds are holding firm if not exactly green. Looking at the DOW chart on signalwatch it seems to be on support so could be an attempted jam in the next session. Market here seems to be expecting some sort of upside. Nothing much to report really, back in wait mode.

Surviving the heatwave, thanks to central airconditioning in the house :) .

Market action here is really option expiration related. Monday and half-trading Tuesday should see more red, after all the expiration-related activities been filled.

#53 anoscope

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 11:47 PM

Jimmy M.,

Now if only I could figure out how to get a pic attached under my name we'd be in business.

:P

image shows how to enter/change your avatar :)
Posted Image

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 12:00 AM

108 degrees here in West Oz at 11.50am - another Oz slang - we are dropping like flies, but at least resource stocks are hanging in, expected more damage after yesterdays tocom madness.

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 12:11 AM

Al Green is out on the rescue again: "cautiously optimistic about the economy." His timing is unbelievable. What a manipulated market...

#56 The End

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 12:24 AM

Neely and what Ike thinks about him. Keep in mind, Since that interview, two days ago, He's been stopped out and it is clear that his count might have to change but, He is very smat and very rich. :grin:


From: ike
Subject: RE: Ike whats your take on Glenn Nellys recent interview
Views: 149
Date: 12/18/2002 9:25 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All of us at one time or another get it wrong. I do not know if Glenn's forecast will turn out to be right, or, wrong. However, this is what I do know about Glenn, first hand. He has made two predictions the last 18 months which at the time raised eye brows, and both turned out to be correct. In late July of 2001, he predicted a water fall type of decline going into September-October due to a catastrophic event. on quote. Then on 3-14-02 , he predicted that the SP will experience the fastest, most devastating decline we have seen in years on quote (this interview is still available in the Best of The Best section of MarketViews). As you know, both predictions came true, both were questioned by many at the time. So, I would at least consider the possibility.

======================================
summary of interview: S&P up to 980+(apparently it is evident) in the next 3-4 weeks then down to 600 next year.
Gold up to $355-365 within the next 2-5 weeks.He says this is the last leg up.Gold to then decline to below $200 .

i have great respect for the guy but was stunned with his analysis especially the gold market.

what does anyone think-Ike?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#57 brian4

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 12:36 AM

Yep-as I said the other night Gold may well go to $200.- bucks but deflation means 500k homes can't get sold at 100k-the return of the nickel cigar etc-if POG goes to $200.- rejoice it will in value-real value-buy more than $1500 buys now. Deflation is coming hard and fast you see it now but you don't notice it. There is nothing, zero, zip, nada that costs today what it did 5 yrs ago, computers, autos (o down, 3 months lease paid up front-0 finance-just take the god damn thing etc.-everything you name. Yesterday on procto the CEO of Super Valu said we are losing MONEY because the consumer is cutting back on food purchases-essentials only and cheap house brands etc-Yaryman posted how the price of DRAM is dropping to nada and NO ONE can mak a buck selling it. Gold wherever it goes will SAVE the NECKS of those WISE enough to HOLD IT! Trade Safe!

#58 roidrage

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 12:38 AM

Here's a link to followup on a discussion earlier:

Stoolie Swisswatcher

rr

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 01:04 AM

POG is getting slammed as we speak. Humm

#60 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 20 December 2002 - 01:36 AM

Here is what I saw today (from memory): AMAT is fumbling around 13.24 on the open, I get a good fill under the current price (warning number one), they run it up for an hour to 13.4, then down to 13, take one order at 12.99 (warning number two), then meander around for a while, then gradually run it up to say 13.55 on the close.

To my thinking, the let me in easy before the run up because they knew they were going to drop it lower to flush me out before they ran it up. All known in advance. The bottom is *in*. Gap up tomorrow and into Jan is my take on that action. No chance to position properly. Gap down on HUI for the correction the goldbugs have all been fearing.

This is all based on seeing how they acted, and that is exactly the way the stock would act at a real bottom. BWTFDIK?

Edit: I certainly hope I'm wrong, because I'm positioned ALL wrong for that! Which is why I know it will happen. :shocked





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