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#301 Down Jones

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:19 PM

Isn't that where the talks betwen the Big 3 and the UAW are going on? :ph34r:

Yes, the Big 3 and the UAW are "negotiating" here in Michigan. Their talks aren't supposed to heat up until after Labor Day. In the meantime the auto plants are pumping out a bunch of cars and trucks filling up the dealer's lots (strike bank?). Now that the power has been restored, the "show can go on".

#302 DrStool

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:19 PM

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#303 wndysrf

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:22 PM

TE:

Thanks for the tip.

CHP looks good on a weekly, may be the start of a significant move.

Lots of these power company related plays may be good for a decent trade the next few months......

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#304 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:30 PM

Yes, the Big 3 and the UAW are "negotiating" here in Michigan. Their talks aren't supposed to heat up until after Labor Day. In the meantime the auto plants are pumping out a bunch of cars and trucks filling up the dealer's lots (strike bank?). Now that the power has been restored, the "show can go on".

These talks should prove to be much more frustrating to the unions than most previous negotiations. This is BY FAR the weakest position they've had in years, especially with underfunded pension issues, overcapacity, full dealer lots, rising interest rates, rising health insurance costs, and lack of profit from the core operation (less finance arms). I wouldn't be surprised to see them attempt to shutter 20-30 plants before all is said and done. Once the current contract expires, we'll find out what their true intentions are.

Would the UAW be stupid enough to call a strike in this environment? YUP! Another word to add to the vocabulary along with "quagmire" is "lockout". :ph34r:

#305 Down Jones

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:46 PM

These talks should prove to be much more frustrating to the unions than most previous negotiations. This is BY FAR the weakest position they've had in years, especially with underfunded pension issues, overcapacity, full dealer lots, rising interest rates, rising health insurance costs, and lack of profit from the core operation (less finance arms). I wouldn't be surprised to see them attempt to shutter 20-30 plants before all is said and done. Once the current contract expires, we'll find out what their true intentions are.

Would the UAW be stupid enough to call a strike in this environment? YUP! Another word to add to the vocabulary along with "quagmire" is "lockout". :ph34r:

I agree 100%. Typically the UAW "targets" one of the Big 3 and begins to negotiate with them first. My hunch is that they will choose GM, since they are the deepest pocket, and they are currently in the mode of buying market share (incentives) and forcing Ford and Chrysler to follow suit. The current UAW contracts are structured in such a way that it is cheaper for the Big 3 to keep producing cars vs. laying off the production people (because they still have to pay UAW members a large % of their salary while they are laid off). So if the UAW call a strike, the automakers won't have to pay their hourly employees and they can work off some of their excess inventory. It should be interesting to observe. I have a particular interest in these talks as I am the CFO of an auto parts supplier in Metro Detroit so I try to keep an ear to the ground to see how our company (and I) will be effected.

#306 crapax

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 10:57 PM

I am looking to research if there actually exists "safe-harbor" currencies (those that the government protects vis a vis the USD).
I think a good opportunity exists in the USD-EUR-INR triumvirate - any ideas where I can get some decent historical data of the cross rates between these currencies? TIA.

#307 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:02 PM

I wonder if they'll fire workers as soon as the current contract expires. I'm sure there have been plans on the table for months now to determine which plants will be closed.

#308 purdymouth

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:16 PM

Homeownership in a Bubble: The Fast Path to Poverty?

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#309 The End

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:18 PM

CHP was not ment to be a recomendation to go long or short. Do your own research.

This post is not directed at any one individual.

Doc,

Check the validating list. It's three pages long on my computer.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#310 mjkst27

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:29 PM

Certainly existing mines can ramp up their production. However, unlike gold exploration, gold discovery is not something that be ramped up due to increased demand.

An rough analogy would be new drug discovery. A ten-fold increase in resources allocated does not result in a ten-fold increase in the discovery of new drugs.

"The market will seek equilibrium if left to it's devices."

Yes. But then there's the questions of time lag in response to changes in demand and volatility about the equilibrium value. If the time lag is too long, then this could cause real economy-damaging stresses. Also large volatility would make conducting business and settling accounts more difficult. Not unlike todays fiat yen-euro-usd situation.


I disagree. Many (most? all?) mining companies have reserves that could physically be put into production at any time, but are not because at current prices it would not provide sufficient profit margin, due to characteristics of the particular project. This could be relative to other more attractive projects the company has available to it, or simply because the POG is so low that the given project would be a money loser. Keep in mind, it's one thing to find the gold, quite another to "produce" it. If POG went high enough, it would make sense to start panning for it in California again.

The gold mining industry is (and would be under a true gold standard) as forward-looking as any other. Exploration would proceed apace in good industry times or bad (exploration companies are certainly always chasing the holy grail discoveries that have allow fat profit margins, just like any business does with their R&D), and production would proceed based on which mines are most economic, just like any enterprise exploits its best opportunities first, as well as always looking out for more and better ones. Nothing unique here just because its gold, its all just basic business.

#311 Jorma

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:33 PM

You can read my butt scratchings weekly in Fed Turdsday Releases, which of course were withheld until Friday this week. :wink2:

The markets will tell the tale first. M data has a 10 day lag. Should start leveling off any week now.

If it doesn't there is only one conclusion that can logically be reached.

The theory is wrong. :lol:

Somehow I missed it this week Doc. That's why I asked.

The lag is to be expected but a drop will tell the tale on your analysis. I think it's right, it should be right if Credit Bubbly analysis is valid, and I fear it's right. Fear for everyone. But then, then, then I think somehow rates will plunge again and we go one more round.

I'll note that your gnawing the tires off the car bearishness on this issue, the credit bubble, doesn't quite square with your market work, if I'm reading that right. Not a criticism in any way. Just an observation which reminds to let the market prices tell us.

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#312 mksloth

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Posted 17 August 2003 - 11:55 PM

I am looking to research if there actually exists "safe-harbor" currencies (those that the government protects vis a vis the USD).
I think a good opportunity exists in the USD-EUR-INR triumvirate - any ideas where I can get some decent historical data of the cross rates between these currencies? TIA.

By INR, do you mean the Indian Rupee? If so, I am doubtful that the Indian govt. is protecting it vis-a-vis the USD. Considering that it was granted free float status only a few short years ago...

#313 alceringa

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Posted 18 August 2003 - 12:00 AM

Been a tough 6 months for bears. First the rally from March lows, then this sideways market for what 2 months?

Lots of stoolies must be feeling the strain. The most common short around here is a short temper. :o

My guess is the patient bear will do well. But I've been wrong before.

In the meantime, its a wonderful, beautiful day where I am. Just the faintest hint of springtime in the air. Does a soul good.

Think I'll take a walk down to the beach and check in later.

Good luck in your trading.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson

#314 Whadda I Do Whadda I Do

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Posted 18 August 2003 - 12:12 AM

FWIW: I haven't been here long (this board) but the last time tempers flared along with a low volume of posts, the markets went down.
I have a bit of profit in RGLD that I just might rollover into RYVNX, in the morning.
(Don't ask me any questions, I can barely read a chart)

Go ahead, void the warranty...


#315 BudFox

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Posted 18 August 2003 - 12:24 AM

What the....did we just lose another one? Come on people, is it the money or just the pride? I don't get it.

Before I was lurking here, some 6 months ago, I spent a long time lurking on the Longwaves board....some really advanced discussions by some very intelligent, forward thinking people discussing long term economic cycles and trends. But it eventually degenerated into childish bickering and posturing, albeit with an advanced degree vocabulary. It seems to be happening here. Too many fragile egos, too many taking their opinions too seriously.

There's so much to be learned here but the bickering is such a turn off. Kind of reminds me of my earlier relationships. Unlike those relationships, I'd hate to grow out of this board. I'd like to grow with you all.

So please stop with all the drama!

(rant off)
"Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." - Gordon Gecco





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