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#361 PileDriver

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:20 PM

I felt stupid for missing the last uptrend! I will not miss this downtrend!

VectorVest ! :lol:

Don't know how long or deep it'll go and I don't need to know until we get there.

As soon as they are indiscriminately selling I'm buying with both hands :P B)

#362 Butterfield 8

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:27 PM

Re Hyper's posts: Having a hard time understanding how both debtors and savers get beaten by the same stick. If 5000 banks go under, debtors get a free ride, no?

#363 BudFox

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:30 PM

Fed Questioned After Bond Market Rout

Saturday August 9, 7:45 AM EDT

By Tim Ahmann

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The blame game in the wake of the bloodiest U.S. bond market rout in nearly a decade is in full swing and many of the fingers are pointed at the Federal Reserve.

Accusations are flying that the central bank overplayed its concerns on deflation in a manipulative effort to push long-term interest rates lower to goose the economy.

Now the Fed has been "caught out" -- as Melvyn Krauss of the Hoover Institution put it in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Friday -- some argue its credibility has been damaged.

"The Fed whipped up a positive frenzy about deflation," said James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. "To my mind not the least of the sins of the Fed in this period was its cavalier willingness to suppress, manipulate and distort what had been more-or-less free prices."
"Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." - Gordon Gecco

#364 slinger

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:45 PM

RSA: Are you recommending that your readers buy into this market?

JR: I have been a net seller since the middle of June. As the market was rising from the middle of March till the middle of June I have been employing cash and the cash position carried toward the successful test of the bottom in March dwindled as we approached the near term top in June. Today as a result of market action the cash position carried has swelled to about 60%. Given the realistic possibility of higher prices in October through March of next year the cash on hand will be employed to pick up bargains and rotate into the segments of the market that will lead the next bullish charge. I suspect -- but don't know for certain -- that the leading names will emerge from the secondary issues. The best deals out there will likely be found among secondary and tertiary issues. Keep eyes peeled for action in the small caps and mid cap environment. That is where the best returns can be generated over the course of the next bullish wave.

Meanwhile on the short side of the equation look for stocks that are in the process of breaking down. Breaking down means falling below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. A good example of that is CCU. That stock is rolling over and the declining stage is just beginning. Here is a fine example of where to position yourself on the short side. Other examples of short plays are IBM if it breaks below $79, IFF right now with a toe in the water and shorting hard below $29.5. SYY dropping on a close below $29. and PG shorting aggressively on a close below $86.5. The 200 day moving average relative to PG is $87.50. A drop a point below that level and you catch the outset of the decline. If you are an owner of PG then place a stop at $86.5 or if you like just sit back and watch the value of the asset erode for the next six months or more. Those stocks cited are examples of many issues on the verge of giving way. It pays to be short in a down market and hedge your bets.

rightsideadvisors.com

#365 supercolonblow

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:47 PM

VectorVest !  :lol:

Don't know how long or deep it'll go and I don't need to know until we get there.

As soon as they are indiscriminately selling I'm buying with both hands :P  B)

That vv market timing graph is awesome. 7% gain in lowenthal express port evaporated. Holding for overbought signal or 2% loss...... which ever comes first.
Have not shorted individuals before but just ran piles short strat.....wow! ....tempting

agreed, cant say when trend will change but I will never trade against it again!

#366 BAREister

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:51 PM

So it's "everyone gang up on the FED!!!" now, izzit?

What would bearz, and, now, FURustrated bond or, rather, bagholders DO if they "didn't have Alan Greenspan to kick around anymore" a la that late notorious President we had 30 years ago?

gimme a BREAK. HRFF feels like that grumpy? federal judge who threw out the clASS action lawsuits against the big Wall St FURms saying it was plaintiffs' own damned FAWLT and GREED that got them in that jam in the FURst place.

Frenzy, schmmmmenzy!!!

Whatever became of poisonal responsibility on the part of investors? Or due diligence? Or prudent ASSumption of risk?

And itSNOT that Magoo & Co don't have a large part of the blame, butt: it takes two to tango.

The bond boyz bet BIG, GUESSED wrong, and now lost BIG. And the caterwauling is reaching a CRASH>>>END?>>>Oh!!!™

Even Grant is jumping on the pile! (Sorry, Pile!)

LMAZZOFF
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#367 dumpabuck

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 10:59 PM

The logo for the 2008 Olympics to be held in Beijing was just unveiled.

Posted Image

Video about the logo by Zhang Yimou

[Edit: Find the logo under "Culture" and click "Play". Sorry for the first bad link.]

Spot the famous actress.

The "art house" types will howl, but I've always thought of Zhang Yimou as China's answer to French director Roger Vadim as Zhang discovered both Gong Li and Zhang ZiYi.

I don't know who the actress is, but appreciated the video of ancient Etruscan gold!

#368 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:01 PM

Attn Riverboaters:

Will the stochastics remain in the basement? Or will Scam Week play out in Boner Fashion as usual?

Anyone here got the nerve to play the bounce??

http://www.saavycharts.info/
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#369 BAREister

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:07 PM

Snot I, said the sparrow,
With his little bow and arrow.


Mark Young's "smart money" is predicting a rally, early in the week.

Back to bondz: Looks like the Fed may be trying to discourage speculation there
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#370 BudFox

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:09 PM

Attn Riverboaters:

Will the stochastics remain in the basement? Or will Scam Week play out in Boner Fashion as usual?

Anyone here got the nerve to play the bounce??

http://www.saavycharts.info/

Might as well play the pullback on miners at the same time. :blink:

Due middle of the week, for those who are really that insane. :ph34r:
"Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." - Gordon Gecco

#371 Hypertiger

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:14 PM

"Let's assume that your conjecture regarding FRB is correct.

I have one question, one that I haven't yet seen addressed by you or other posters.

What system should be put in place of FRB? "


I've been wondering that myself.
Once the current system collapses the standard of living will be in the toilet anyway don't you get it yet?

Yes I'm going the be teaching physicists how to dig ditches with their bare hands... "effectively" once the welfare money they extract off of everyone else in society for their employment schemes runs out.

I'm beginning to get the unfortunate impression that you're far more interested in seeing the current system collapse (and those that didn't heed your warnings severely punished) than coming up with an alternative scenario.

(Not unlike religious ascetics who begrudge the fact that those around them are enjoying life while they themselves practice denial and thus consol themselves by happily imagining the punishments awaiting those who did not join them.)

You also seem to have an inordinate dislike of physicists.
Which, to put it in the most favourable light, is rare.
Sounds like some physicist(s) have taken you to task in the past over some of your claims. :)

However, before drawing any conclusions, I'll repeat my question:

Do you have another model for making capital available for investment that would be a viable alternative to FRB?


This is a minor example of how the system works...

You need income, so you get a job and do it...you get better at it until you have mastered it...

You want to buy a house but don't have $200,000 so you go to a bank and ask them for a loan... you put down $20,000 and get a mortgage for $180,000

After 1 year what is the cost of borrowing $180,000?

...The "loan" is at 6% for 30 years

the monthly payments are $1079.19

When you go to a bank for a loan the bank doesn't have anything to loan you because it is you who have the income that the bank wants.


The $180,000 was created out of thin air...the income the bank recieves is created out of thin air do you create your income out of thin air? or do you work for it?

Another example you ask me if you can borrow $100 and I say "Your in luck because I'm a banker" I whip out a napkin and write $100 on it and put my official stamp on it, then hand it to you...

You are shocked and say "This is only a napkin it is not worth anything"

I say "But I am a Banker and all the bankers accept my napkins because I accept theirs"

Then I get you to sign a piece of paper agreeing to pay me back plus interest of 10% after 1 year, you owe me $110 after 1 year but I only gave you a napkin with $100 written on it with a crayon...

What's a better system than Fractional Reserve Banking? all consumers including Govermnents are hopelessly dependant on Bankers for their power to create "money" out of thin air...So if Bankers are the Hand that gives and consumers are the hand that takes then Bankers are above everyone else...So to answer your question...You would have to ask a Banker what a better system is, and the answer will alway be "There is no better system"

What the bankers don't inform the consumers of though is that the system has a maximum potential to produce debt inflation...

The system runs needs debt inflation to function...Consumers (You and me) are dependant on debt inflation to pay for our existance and to produce our income. But when the maximum potential for the system to produce debt inflation is reached the debt begins deflating and the ability for consumers to exist becomes harder and incomes begins to dry up...

We are at the point in the lifespan of the system where the consumers have basically run out of their ability to borrow ever greater amounts of debt to support their income...

The current debt backed by debt fractional reserve system is based on debt inflation to service the money supply which is debt...

A consumer must use present income, Prevoiously created debt, as collateral to service newly created debt which is future income... or some other piece of debt inflated collateral to create future income...

If consumers began saving instead of borrowing the system would begin to collapse.

If consumers do not borrow enough to sustain exponential debt inflation the system would begin to collapse.

If consumers reach their maximum potential to use present income to service future income the system begins to collapse.

If consumers save don't borrow enough or reach the maximum potential then debt deflation begins and will eventually pass the point of no return where debt deflation or contraction of the money supply which is 97% created out of thin air debt becomes unstoppable and debt deflation runs to it's maximum potential...

The education system which is funded by banks produces ignorant victims for the banks...debt sponges would you submit to a system that has a 100% chance of collapsing if you knew about it?(The basic mechanics of the system have not changed for 1000's of years and has collapsed each and every time it is in use...it is based on systemically flawed logic) That is why you don't know about it...No sane human would submit to such a system...

Alternatives?

The present system has 2 alternatives Inflate Debt...or Die

If you can not inflate debt by the required amount to sustain debt inflation you die

Changing the system? there is no way to change the system while it is in opperation...after it collapses there is a slim chance but the general population is desperate to get back to the good old days and Fractional reserve banking is the only solution offered...

The money supply starts out as barter until the maximum potential is reached then it is a gold and silver money supply until the maximum potential is reached then it is a fractional reserve gold and silver system until the maximum potential is reached then it is a fractional debt backed by debt system until the maximum potential is reached...

Then it is game over or the last system is a hyperinflationary system where non debt backed by debt printed money is basically dumped on street corners by dump trucks in a last dich effort to ignite exponential debt inflation for the last time...

The longer Fractional reserve banking is in operation the weaker it becomes...

from 1692 to 1971 the Gold backed system was used and collapsed many times but was reconstructed after the power consolidation phase... from 71 to now we have been operating with a debt backed system for 32 years which is basically at the maximum potential if a hyperinflationary system is put in place we would get maybe 2 years max...

The gold and silver money supply system lasted 100's of years and the barter system lasted 1000's

Until we break free from FRB there is no effective way to sustain the modern civilization we have grown to love for very long...

We are just are lucky enough to be alive at this point in the lifespan of the system on the verge of a complete and total collapse...

But since the education system doesn't devote 1 milisecond to the study of the basic mechanics of fractional reserve banking very few human beings can even begin to comprehend the realities of it or find a solution to it...

Try to find a solution to the problem of having to breathe, stop breathing...it will only be a matter of time untill the only conclusion you arrive at is "inflate lungs or die..."

FRB is the most diabolical manmade construct in the history of human existance...

It is a paragon of evil.

You are just confused by the effects you see around you...soon it will all change...

You and everyone else on the planet are at the complete mercy of a system which has no mercy.

The system could be changed if there was awareness of it's mechanics by enough people but so far the information age has to date produced ZERO.

Most people are far too smart to do anything about their stupidity.

Will I laugh? You bet... I've been called a Communist, an anti American anti capitalist terrorist, recieved death threats, and did some jail time trying to change the system... Just by trying to inform people of the truth...no one cares really.

Fractional reserve banking is the cause and when you open your eyes in the morning that is the effect...

right now the only alternative is inflate or die and I'm looking for the miracle that I'm wrong every day...If it doesn't show up in 6-10 months then it never will...

When my children turn on me and demand to know why the world is so fvcked and want an explanation as to why I let it happen...I'll inform them that I at least tried but no one cared, they are just too afraid of dying.

It's almost over...

Once the system collapses the owners will have a free hand to shoot first and ask questions later...


HT: When you go to a bank for a loan the bank doesn't have anything to loan you because it is you who have the income that the bank wants.

EFK: I'm sorry, but there is no a priori reason that this should be the case.
People with mortages on their homes apply for and receive other types of loans
including business loans.

Unless, of course, their credit rating is horrific. But from what I've read, in the current US lending enviroment, if one has a pulse, then one is eligeable for a loan.

HT: The $180,000 was created out of thin air.

EFK: Regretably, this is also incorrect. In a traditional bank, the $180,000 came from the depositors that belong to the bank. Ie., their deposits. Or a credit union if you prefer.

To simplify the current model, I've ignored the current trend to "securitize" everything that isn't nailed down (and even things that are). Btw, most of this securitization will probably be exposed as fraud.

An international bank has to keep 8% of assets on reserve as specfied by the BIS - Bank of International Settlements.

Two issues here.

o Is 8% too low? Probably.
o What are the nature of the asset that can be counted as reserves. In Japan, the banks were permitted to count company shares at purchase value as reserves. This was great while the market was rising, but has proven to be problematic as the Nikkei has fallen.
In the US, securitization, mis-evaluation of the securitized assest, and their multiple round-tripping or leveraging will probably lead to problems.

However, this is not a problem with FRB per se, but rather bad judgement at best and fraud at worst related to assiging appropriate value and risk to various asset classes.

HT: If consumers began saving instead of borrowing the system would begin to collapse.

EFK: Consumers do save in the the US. On average about 4% of income. What level of consumer saving would cause the economic system stress is what's important here.
100% would cause economic collapse anywhere. What about 8%?16%? 32%?
What is the threshold?

HT: If consumers do not borrow enough to sustain exponential debt inflation the system would begin to collapse.

EFK: What is enough? Again, what is the estimated threshold?

HT: money supply which is 97% created out of thin air

EFK: The money supply is a different issue then FRB. Noland has argued, correctly in my opinion, that the GSEx, which are not bound by any FRB requirements, have been major contributors to the rapid increase in the money supply. Btw, which type of "money" are we talking about here? MZM, M1, M2, and/or M3?

HT: The gold and silver money supply system lasted 100's of years and the barter system lasted 1000's

EFK: I think it's a safe bet that most people would not wish to return to the barter system. I don't care much for the idea of raising chickens to pay for the gas for my car with eggs. As for gold and silver, I've outlined the problems with such a system in a previous post this weekend.

A " Monetary Unit" with value fix to a quantity of commodities such as specified by the Roger Raw Materials Fund is one alternative that I can think of off the top of my head.

Rogers Raw Materials Fund

HT: Will I laugh? You bet...

EFK: It would appear that my initial impressions are correct.

HT: I've been called a Communist, an anti American anti capitalist terrorist, recieved death threats, and did some jail time trying to change the system... Just by trying to inform people of the truth...no one cares really.

EFK: From your sig, it appears that you are Canadian. From my experiences, Canada is a liberal and civil country with a legal code based on British Common Law. What did you do to receive jail time? Did you break a law? Laws? Did you threaten someone? With violence?

Throughout history, countless men have suffered imprisonment, been tortured, and killed for their beliefs. Unfortunately, this says nothing as to whether their beliefs were right or wrong.

HT: It's almost over...

EFK: 6 to 10 months by your reckoning. So your conjecture will be put to the test shortly.

I'm not going to go into detail I've already wasted enough time but...

At 8% reserves you "mistakenly" believe that for every $100 of deposits that 8$ is held in reserve and $92 can be lent out.

The sad reality is that for every $100 in deposits at a bank held the bank can create out of thin air just under $1,300 with compound interest attached to lend out...

$1,300 is the debt inflation $100 is the fractional reserve...

and that is at 8%

US banks have a 3% reserve requirement...Canadian and German banks have no reserve requirement and can lend as much money (create debt out of thin air with compound interest attached) as the economy can absorb...

The vast majority "assume" how banks work and what the reserve requirement means...

The banks have special powers above what the government or citizens have...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#372 Hairy_Dent

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:22 PM

I have read Peter Bernstein's AGAINST THE GODS three times now, because I find it so challenging and intriguing. In my estimation, it neither supports nor discredits the ability of derrivatives to manage risk. It simply explains the theory, and notes that it is the latest and greatest of the "new, new thing" in risk management. Just as "modern portfolio theory", another Nobel Prize-winning system went awry in the 1987 meltdown (according to Bernstein), the jury is still out on the use of derrivatives, and the understanding of the system by its many new practioners.

Personally, I welcome books and articles that go against my bearish inclinations. I have long realized that my personality is biased toward skepticism, and that has kept me overly pessimistic on many issues.

And what if the widespread use of derrivatives actually does what it promises, i.e. spread risk so wide and so thin that individual catastrophies are offloaded in very small chunks to a very wide cohort of risk takers? I certainly would want to become aware of that. As an options trader (writer!) for 25 years, I absorb as much as I can, pro and con, on the stupid risks that I take every month!

Thanks for the tip on Bernstein's other book(s). That guy has something to say.

And one more thing......Buy the books from DOC!

#373 Stoolander

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:27 PM

any thoughts on the last 2 candlesticks - inverted hammer and then regular hammer. have seen these patterns for years and really cant get a read on them. maybe there is a volume component... biggest volume eventually wins?

PeeB

Hammer in an uptrend doesn't mean much, really only a signal in a downtrend. Inverted hammer (shooting star) in an uptrend speaks volumes.

#374 Hypertiger

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:27 PM

Re Hyper's posts: Having a hard time understanding how both debtors and savers get beaten by the same stick. If 5000 banks go under, debtors get a free ride, no?

No... the paperwork still exists and is taken over if 1 bank has a piece of paper that says you owe them but goes bankrupt then another bank will either buy that piece of paper for pennies on the dollar or have it assigned to them by default...

If you can not pay the new owner then they will foreclose on you...

someone will always buy the paperwork and try to collect whatever they can get...

Even though it makes logical sense that banks will fail I even have a hard time believing it will happen...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#375 Jimbo

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Posted 10 August 2003 - 11:29 PM

ASIAN LADIES SEEM TO BE FORMING A HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN

SOHU, SINA AND NTES all appear to be forming head and shoulder topping patterns. The volcano had exploded and now the ash is falling.

EBAY continues to decline nicely - no one appaers to want to be left holding the bag on this one.
timoleon





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