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#16 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:14 AM

I can't help it. That one's my favorite. The devil made me do it.

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#17 sweefraapp

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:15 AM

My wife called from the Best Buy check out lines. Her daughter is getting the items while my wife stands in line. She got a ton of stuff for almost no money - some free after rebates. Long lines - they really aren't able to handle a crowd crush like that. I used to do almost no shopping. I kind of enjoy the excitement these days (I have a retail background). Didn't go this year though. Did much of what I needed on-line.

Heard one poodit this morning say the season should see retail up maybe 4% this year. Another said -1% to -2% ex Walmart and autos.

Markets: I'm trying to go with the flow and hope for a low risk set up for day trades.

#18 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:23 AM

Doc's Tanksgiving wish.

Posted Image

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#19 simple guy

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:24 AM

SG weighs in FWIW

1. Doc is the man, and everyone is responsible for their own trades and risk tolerance. Trade accordingly. Be willing to accept ST losses, and dont game the tape daily. I have only made a few trades since the Oct 10th bottom, and I was out of my shorts several days prior to that bottom. All of my trades were profitable (Bearish) except for the very last ones last week... and even with that, Im donw net of 1% since Oct 10th bottom....

2. Dont fight the tape

3. Be open minded

4. Realize that the NDX crossed just over its 200da MA on Wednesday, and the likelihood is more uptrend for a few more days before she tops out... so Im staying OUT OF THE WAY

5. I went long a few small caps on Wednesday, wont tell you which... but I do realize that even in bear markets 20% of the stocks will be rising

6. I'll update later... but unofficially... DOW should go well over 9000 to 9200-9350 range near term. NAS should see at least 1520-1530... with shot at another 80-90 points from Wednesday close before topping. SPY to 955-970.

7. Intel reports on Dec 5th, which is 1 day after the next turn window... hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

#20 GregFokker

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:26 AM

LOL Doc!

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#21 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:27 AM

9200 is the outside 10-13 week cmap on the Dow. I never thought it would get there.

Oh well.

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#22 simple guy

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:29 AM

Case in not fighting the tape on Nasdaq e.g.:

RYVNX is RYdex Venture 100, 200% inverse the QQQ index. So if you are a bear, you can buy this fund and profit, trade it twice a day.

The attached chart CLEARLY shows the downtrend (meaning uptrend in q's) is intact... and the clear gap is around 48-50 on this fund. The fund closed at $57.72 on Wednesday.

A move to 48-50 is the equivalent of a 7.5% upward move on the Q's from Wed close of 27.91. Thats exactly $30 per QQQ share. Any monkey can see that gap up on the chart.

So I stood aside and covered on Wednesday morning, and will likely re-short at 50 ish on that fund (Going long the fund).

Other measure is VNX, if she sees anywhere near 40... go short. VIX anywhere near 20, go short.... its coming... be patient, but dont jump yet...

#23 simple guy

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:31 AM

Sorry, forgot the chart... see below (note the 48-50 gap on RYVNX, trade accordingly IMHO)

Attached Images

  • ryvnx.gif


#24 PileDriver

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:32 AM

Doc, actually if we're still in wave 2 up with wave 3 down ahead then that chart won't be too far off the mark when this thing finally tops. Wouldn't you agree SG?

"Quick moving downdraft in wave 3 of 3" ahead.

But as along as the technical trend indicators still point up then you have to expect the upper limits to be hit.

#25 Bearman

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:33 AM

Hi to all.................. Bulls are talkin reflate

P.Eliades and me say sell open s-peeeeeeeeee 941
stop at 94850

Tank this pos

#26 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:34 AM

SG, Intel reports in January... they do have a mid-quarter update around the time you mentioned normally...

#27 simple guy

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:35 AM

Pile Driver and all

Yes, I agree that 3rd wave down is coming and soon enough.... I dont expect it to go full blown heavily down til Mid January, but it will START Down as early as next week, like wednesday at latest IMHO.

The heaviest of selling is likely to occur mid January to mid March taking all indices to lows.

Thats my unofficial position.... but I will also monitor the tapes accordingly and wait for the confirmed downtrend.

Risk management is crucial, but Im clearly a BEARR

#28 simple guy

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:37 AM

Fartpolio-RE Intel

I think I realize when they report earnings

and THEY DO have a update on Dec 5th, that is FACT.

Its interesting that its the day after an important turn window... depending on who you listen to.

It may be "sell the news"... as everyone has already gamed Intel stock up on the expected "upward guidance" news.... and INTC is a huge component of the Q's.

That could be a hint as to my plans for next week...heh heh

#29 GregFokker

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:38 AM

From optioninvestor.com: Equity mutual funds reported net cash inflows totaling $3.5 bln for the week ended Wednesday, November 26. The largest percentage went into non-domestic funds. Technology had inflows of $274 million, the largest since 4/15/02.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#30 aureleus

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:38 AM

Well, looky there, another piece of the puzzle.


Global Asset Managers Shift to US Stocks
http://biz.yahoo.com...set_poll_1.html


Must be the same guys who upped the stock-allocation ratio for the first time in '99.

Harhar





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