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#1

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 08:32 AM

Good morning, everyone.

Hope you all had a very safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving without the intrusion af any market-ralated emotional angst.

Perhaps you remember what I wrote in at least one of my prior commentaries - that two of the very real occupational hazards of this game-in-common we all play are the risk of becoming a compulsive gambler and the risk of becoming dehumanized.

There were signs Wednesday afternoon of the latter. And I know from observation that there is a very positive correlation between the two.

One of the things that's important to know is that no system, no person - no matter how good - is perfect in this game.

And Doc is good. Very, very good. One of the best I've seen in the decades of my experience. And in the end we each must take responsibility for our own actions and conduct ourselves in such a way as to be able to cope successfully with the times that stool happens :angry:.

As I said in my late Wednesday afternoon post:

Folks, please remember that Doc is doing the best he can under very difficult circumstances. Remember what BARE has said a number of times - about the market wanting to devour both bulls and bears before this was over? Eventually the long term and secular term trends will reassert themselves and value will in fact out, hopefully sooner than later. Meanwhile it's important to do whatever you have to do in order to get through this period.

The current market insanity can not, will not go on indefinitely. It has an appointment with gravity (thanks again for the phrase, Greg!) which it is destined to keep. It's not Doc's fault that he's not batting a thousand in being able to forsee to what extent the inmates have temporarily taken over the asylum. Getting angry about it and lashing out at others over it amounts to throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

For over and above the analytical work done here this community that Doc created serves as a powerful support system (on all levels) for each one of us. A support system that can be the major defense against the twin devils I mentioned in the third paragraph. A support system that under stressful conditions such as now could become fragile and especially vulnerable to angry and unkind words. Something that not only must not be taken for granted but constantly nurtured.

As Doc said about three-quarters of an hour before I posted:

I would really hope that all of us are big enough and smart enough to think for ourselves, and manage our trading wisely. That means please, do not overleverage, and always use protection.

To which I would add if you find that you're repeatedly not getting it right no matter what you do then back off, at least for the time being, and go into Observational Mode. Don't paint yourself into a corner, either financially or emotionally. Always have a plan in place for those times when stool happens :angry:. For times like those are the only guarantee the market provides.

Posted Image Wonmug, a member who joined us in June, celebrated his birthday yesterday. Happy Birthday, wonmug!

And lest I forget, Big Bear will not make his usual appearance at 12:45 PM today 'cause The Circus is over today at 1 PM. :)

So with that I wish you all a good trading day and a very safe and enjoyable weekend!

#2 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:04 AM

Stoolwethers look real interesting this morning. There are a couple that are extended to or beyond top of channel. Low risk short entry with obvious protective buy stop levels. Doc will let you figure out which ones.

Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool

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#3 sweefraapp

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:30 AM

8:30 AM ET. USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Report

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTM Business Barometer (last +0.3%)

12:00 PM ET. Ag. Markets Close

1:00 PM ET. Stock Market Closes

2:00 PM ET. Bond Market Closes

4:30 PM ET. Money Supply

#4 sweefraapp

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:47 AM

Market Status (11/27/2002) :
As we mentioned in yesterday's Market Commentary, the market did move higher today. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes moved higher there was some resistive volume, but relatively it was not very much. The lower volume today could be due to traders taking time off for Thanksgiving. Even though we only had small VMA spikes to the upside, the market may move lower in the short-term before moving up, but we feel that it is more likely that the market will continue in it's current upward trend.

#5 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:51 AM

What annoys me most about barfing.com isn't the bullish slant. It's the 5th grade level riting. <_<

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#6 rog

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:51 AM

Doc,

re: Today's Anals

Just wanted to say thank you very much for the great work you share with us every morning and continously during the day. I can't speak for others, however, my own timing has improved many times over since I found this site. Of course your input is one of many I evaluate each time I make a trading decision.

Many firms on the street offer similiar but less insightful analysis for many times your modest price. I receive that material for free but gladly pay for your excellent analysis.

Please keep up the excellent work.

Regards,
Roger

#7 richmtn

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:52 AM

With apologies to all you parrot lovers. :)

A man named Jon received a parrot as a gift.
The parrot had a bad attitude and an even worse
vocabulary. Every wordout of the bird's mouth was
rude, obnoxious and laced with profanity.
Jon tried and tried to change the bird's attitude
by consistently sayingonly polite words, playing
soft music and anything else he could think of to
"clean up" the bird's vocabulary.
Finally Jon was fed up and he yelled at the
parrot. The parrot yelled back. Jon shook the parrot
and the parrot got even angrier and more rude. Jon in
desperation, threw up his hands and grabbed the bird
and put him in the freezer.
For a few minutes the parrot squawked and kicked
and screamed. Then,suddenly there was total quiet,
not a peep was heard. Fearing that he hurt the
parrot, Jon quickly opened the door to the freezer.
The parrot calmly stepped out onto Jon's outstretched
arm and said "I believe I may have offended you
with my rude language and actions. I am sincerely
remorseful for any inappropriate transgressions. I fully
intend to do everything I can do to correct my rude and
unforgivable behavior."
Jon was stunned at the change in the bird's attitude. He
was about to ask the parrot why he had made such a
dramatic change in his behavior, but the bird
continued..."May I ask what the chicken did?"

#8 Jorma

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:54 AM

Futures and bonds up a bit, gold down a bit. Meaning nothing except to give a warm feeling to the bulls that all is well.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog


#9 PileDriver

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:55 AM

go dumb asses, buy, buy, chase those tech stocks...its a new bull mrkt :P

#10 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 09:57 AM

rog- sincerest tanks! :D

Doc wants to thank everyone for the encouragement and notes of support he received over the holiday. He really appreciates it!

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#11 GregFokker

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:04 AM

NDX Future
Posted Image
Credit: http://money.cnn.com

S&P 500 Future
Posted Image
Credit: http://money.cnn.com

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#12 DrStool

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:08 AM

Wow! Check out the Nasyak!

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#13 torah man

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:09 AM

greetings,

i seem to have missed some local insanity friday afternoon, just as well.

this is one of those days where you have to ask yourself, "why am i even watching this thing."

i can't think of anything that would happen today that would make me sell or buy.

i am going out for coffee with my wife, see you later in the morning.

#14 GregFokker

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:10 AM

Wow! Check out the Nasyak!

I agree. The Nasdaq is like some kind of obscene abomination, like a huge pus-filled whitehead or a massive goiter. I just can't stand the sight or even the thought of it anymore. Who on G-d's green earth is buying that shit?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#15 PileDriver

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 10:12 AM

on the second chart ...
http://www.vtoreport...t/sentiment.htm
do we hit the red line before the madness stops?

This is encouraging but do we hit 0.50 on the blue chart here ?
http://www.decisionp...filiate/pc.html

This also brings to mind the nagging observation of how everyone keeps saying that we're climbing a wall of worry and that this rally will last becasue there is so much skepticism. Skepticism my ass.





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