Jump to content


Photo

Trend reversal


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
412 replies to this topic

#61 machinehead

machinehead

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,180 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:15 PM

From the "Dead Bodies" link:

"It is over for bonds. Bill Gross has nowhere to sell his bonds because Wall Street is now going to be his enemy. He has to put his stuff on Market Access, and Wall Street is going to front-run it all."

In the history of portfolio management, it has been unusual for a bond manager to become a public figure. Bill Gross made it for a couple of reasons, one being that he really is talented.

But the other reason was that a 22-year bond bull, coupled with his own outperformance, propelled his fund into the largest on earth. And Pimco got bought out by an acquirer.

These are classic signposts at the end of a secular bull market. The bond bull market is over. By the end of the Twenty-teens, when the luckless Baby Boomer cohort slams into the Medicare wall, Treasury yields will be setting record highs.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#62 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:22 PM

Agreed that yield will be MUCH MUCH higher in years ahead. But, becuase of the events unfolding, I can see a lower low in yields at a point. I hope I am not wrong and I will NOT be holding long if wrong for long. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#63 Ned38

Ned38

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,460 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:23 PM

While we're posting lyrics...

Allman Brothers "Hot 'Lanta"



and "In Memory of Elizabeth Reed"



:P  :P

qo

Those are my kinda songs. Matter of fact IMOER is my absolute all time favorite piece of guitar literature. A true work of art. A masterpiece by anyone's standards.

For some interesting commentary on that......the Bros........Duane etc.,read the liner notes from the Miles Davis' Kind of Blue album

#64 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:24 PM

For those who have not seen the COT.

http://www.traders-t...6962&folderid=1

They are adding shorts to the big contracts. :wink2:

I was looking at that also. Wasn't sure if it was ok to post such a link here.

How about this one? Looks like the commercials are short short short the metals.

COT

Did not look at that until YOU posted it.WOW. :shocked :shocked :shocked
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#65 Hypertiger

Hypertiger

    Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,270 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:24 PM

Liquidity is borrowed money... The FED can only expand the base or reserve...It is up to the comercial banks to entice everyone to load up as much debt as possible...

It's been going full blast for 3 years now...

The system is breaking down because there is not enough debt inflation to sustain debt levels...liquidity...

What most people fail to realize is the fed can only increase the debt based fractional reserve...it is up to the consumers to multiply that to create a wall of money (Debt)...

Consumers use current income (Previously created debt) to service future income (Newly created debt)

Once you reach the point where the maximum potential for current income is used to service future income, future income drops...

It becomes impossible to sustain debt inflation... once you reach the maximum potential of debt inflation then the next stop is the maximum potential for debt deflation...

There is no escape... in an inflationary phase you are forced to borrow more to sustain it but when you have borrowed all you can borrow then you are forced to borrow less...

The system has rules and if consumers can not borrow enough to sustain their wages then their wages have to drop...It's as simple as that.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#66 BAREister

BAREister

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,469 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:29 PM

Is Hot 'Lanta an ALLMAN BROS tune?

The BARE just LUVS them Southern bandz...

well, MOST of 'em.

Skynrd excepted.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#67 machinehead

machinehead

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,180 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:30 PM

In his latest column, Bill Gross reproduces some handwritten notes that he made on an Alaskan cruise:

1. We live in a finance-based economy with excessive debt - must use all means including "ceilings" to keep the cost of financing low.

2. Rentiers (debt holders) must be reflated away - so while capping their returns via "ceilings," inflation erodes the purchasing power of their principal.

3. Must depreciate value of currency (dollar).


No wonder he didn't add any commentary. I guess he figured it was enough to post the handwriting on the wall.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#68 Ned38

Ned38

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,460 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:34 PM

Excerpt from Miles Davis liner notes:

Palmer:

Playing gigs at the Fillmore East during the sixties made it easier for you to get in and catch other bands, even if tickets were sold out. As a young saxophonist in a rock band, I played there several times and attended numerous concerts; the one group I never missed (unless I had to be on the road) was the Allman Brothers Band. More specifically, I went to see their guitarist, Duane Allman, the only "rock" guitarist I had heard up to that point who could solo on a one-chord vamp for as long as half an hour or more, and not only avoid boring you but keep you absolutely riveted. Duane was a rare melodist and a dedicated student of music who was never evasive about the sources of his inspiration. "You know," he told me one night after soaring for hours on wings of lyrical song, "that kind of playing comes from Miles and Coltrane, and particularly Kind Of Blue. I've listened to that album so many times that for the past couple of years, I haven't hardly listened to anything else."

Full Text

:D

#69 mjkst27

mjkst27

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,012 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:41 PM

Short-term, oil would be reacting to supply-demand. It's not as if a lot of money could be parked in the crude oil futures.

But the rejection of paper dollars by oil suppliers in Oil Shock I (1973) could happen again on a larger scale.

Wal Mart Shock I. It won't be pretty.

what are you suggesting, mh? that China would demand payment in gold for its goods?

#70 BAREister

BAREister

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,469 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:41 PM

HRFF is sure glad he got to see Miles play once in Seattle, beFUR he died.

Seen the A Bros several X at Key Arena. Only moderately impressed. Albums r better...

Too bad Duane died so young. He and Jimi and Jim and Janis and...
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#71 machinehead

machinehead

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,180 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:43 PM

Is Hot 'Lanta an ALLMAN BROS tune?

The BARE just LUVS them Southern bandz...

well, MOST of 'em.

Skynrd excepted.

You shock me, BARE. Didn't think you had ever heard of "Learned Skurned," as my high school girlfriend used to call them.

You strike me as more of a Ray Stevens kind of guy:

Guitarzan
He's a jungle man ...


But maybe you're just suffering from mondegreen -

Mondegreen for dummies
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#72 mjkst27

mjkst27

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,012 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:46 PM

For those who have not seen the COT.

http://www.traders-t...6962&folderid=1

They are adding shorts to the big contracts. :wink2:

I was looking at that also. Wasn't sure if it was ok to post such a link here.

How about this one? Looks like the commercials are short short short the metals.

COT

Did not look at that until YOU posted it.WOW. :shocked :shocked :shocked

more fuel for the upside, IMO

#73 Sigmoid Friend

Sigmoid Friend

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 548 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:49 PM

For those who have not seen the COT.

http://www.traders-t...6962&folderid=1

They are adding shorts to the big contracts. :wink2:

I was looking at that also. Wasn't sure if it was ok to post such a link here.

How about this one? Looks like the commercials are short short short the metals.

COT

Did not look at that until YOU posted it.WOW. :shocked :shocked :shocked

Are the commercials too big to squeeze? What would it take? :blink:

#74 Tchaikofsky

Tchaikofsky

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,244 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 10:00 PM

But maybe you're just suffering from mondegreen -

Mondegreen for dummies

Santana/ Abraxas:

Got a black magic marker
Black Magic Woman

Eat your coco-puffs
Oye como va

#75 alceringa

alceringa

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,125 posts

Posted 01 August 2003 - 10:08 PM

Stoolies, please remember...........


It is violation of intellectual properrty rights to copy and repost, in full, material published by others.

Snippets of copyrighted material and link backs to the original web page is best.

Doing that keeps the Internet Police at bay.

TIA
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart