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#46 mjkst27

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:16 PM

Crude oil closed at $32.22/bbl today.

Crude oil chart

An unfilled downside gap remains from March (about the time the Iraq incursion started). If crude goes any higher next week, it would start filling that gap. The highest spike in February was around $40 per barrel.

Needless to say, this shouldn't be happening. A deflationary oil shock? I don't think so ...

possible that some of the bond liquidation money is headed into Earl?

#47 strikerm3

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:19 PM

M.H.,

I don't know if you answered the question concerning a LOW. I know your high target of 1170ish by election. I see a move down to the 850 area by year end.

Where do you stand on a potential LOW before a rally next year?

No idea really. Below 962, there was a minor low of 912 on May 20. And we started the year at 880.

The "Dead Bodies Behind Mark to Market" linked by Golden Stool (at first I thought they were talking about our thread!) sounds a little sensational. The bonds have had a big move down, and it's being extrapolated to disaster. All of this will happen over the next 2-3 years. But meanwhile the bonds get a little respite here before the death march resumes, I think.

But I'll say this -- to those who fully accept the "Dead Bodies" scenario in the bond market -- it would provoke a wave of liquidity that makes LTCM look like an eyedropper. Keeping a "seized up" market liquified is the First Commandment of Central Banking (brought down on a stone tablet by Mr. Walter Bagehot). And that wave of liquidity would have to go somewhere.

gold? :unsure:

#48 BudFox

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:19 PM

This is a K-Winter, folks! The current interest rate spike perfectly mirrors the spike in '31, about three years after the stock market top.

This bull market "correction" in bonds has pricked the speculative housing bubble and initiated the deflationary process. What follows is another stock market crash, a credit crunch, increased unemployment, depression. The Fed will have to come to the rescue of bonds, consequently causing the dollar to tank, and send the POG skyrocketing. Bonds will resume their bull market rally through the end of the K-Winter as the stock market rises from the ashes.

Cycles, man. What comes around.....
"Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." - Gordon Gecco

#49 Sigmoid Friend

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:20 PM

Merlin strikes (out) again.

I don't normally bash bad calls, but I have found Merlin to be particularly worthless, and some people here on M2M occasionaly mention him.

Besides, I subscribed to Merlin's pay service for a short while (pre-Stool), and when I canceled he stiffed me for ten bucks.

In addition, at one point Merlin sent out a weird email to his subs claiming to have invented some kind of receiver--microwave? geomagnetic fields? it wasn't clear--he was using in his garage to collect data for his "neural net" model.

If posting this information is inappropirate, please remove this message. I will understand. But I feel it's important to alert Stoolies to what is, to my mind, pure charlatanism.

#50 The End

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:25 PM

S.F.,

Glad some stoolie spoke up.

There are alot of people out there. I will follow those who I can agree with. Doc, Curry, Tomlinson and Neely.

Stick with the best, you won't go wrong for long. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#51 The End

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:26 PM

This is a K-Winter, folks! The current interest rate spike perfectly mirrors the spike in '31, about three years after the stock market top.

This bull market "correction" in bonds has pricked the speculative housing bubble and initiated the deflationary process. What follows is another stock market crash, a credit crunch, increased unemployment, depression. The Fed will have to come to the rescue of bonds, consequently causing the dollar to tank, and send the POG skyrocketing. Bonds will resume their bull market rally through the end of the K-Winter as the stock market rises from the ashes.

Cycles, man. What comes around.....

Good post and glad to see ya BUD.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#52 The End

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:28 PM

Target on PIXR, the 120 dma. Around 57.

Again. Don't follow me.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#53 mjkst27

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:30 PM

This is a K-Winter, folks! The current interest rate spike perfectly mirrors the spike in '31, about three years after the stock market top.

This bull market "correction" in bonds has pricked the speculative housing bubble and initiated the deflationary process. What follows is another stock market crash, a credit crunch, increased unemployment, depression. The Fed will have to come to the rescue of bonds, consequently causing the dollar to tank, and send the POG skyrocketing. Bonds will resume their bull market rally through the end of the K-Winter as the stock market rises from the ashes.

Cycles, man. What comes around.....

great post.

#54 machinehead

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:37 PM

possible that some of the bond liquidation money is headed into Earl?

Short-term, oil would be reacting to supply-demand. It's not as if a lot of money could be parked in the crude oil futures.

But the rejection of paper dollars by oil suppliers in Oil Shock I (1973) could happen again on a larger scale.

Wal Mart Shock I. It won't be pretty.
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#55 QuantumOnion

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:53 PM

The Doors/ Take it as it comes.


While we're posting lyrics...

Allman Brothers "Hot 'Lanta"

 


and "In Memory of Elizabeth Reed"

   


:P :P

qo

#56 The Mad Hungarian

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 08:55 PM

BudFox,
You are in pretty good company with your scenario! :)

Here is what Richard Russell had to say tonight:

"I've said all along that the primary trend, which is bearish and deflationary -- is more powerful than the Fed, the Treasury and the White House all taken together. And I'll stick to that stance."

"Here's another opinion -- the Greenspan Fed blew the bull market all out of proportion because Greenspan never realized or recognized that he was creating an equity super-bubble. And now there's a good chance that the Greenspan Fed is losing control of the situation (did they ever have control?) on the downside."

"Another opinion -- Before this bear market is over, Greenspan's legacy will be summed up in one word -- Incompetence."

#57 Pee Brain

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:01 PM

Short-term, oil would be reacting to supply-demand. It's not as if a lot of money could be parked in the crude oil futures.

But the rejection of paper dollars by oil suppliers in Oil Shock I (1973) could happen again on a larger scale.

Wal Mart Shock I. It won't be pretty.


MH,

maybe not just OPEC. holder of agency and treasuries have first gotten creamed by the devaluation of Uncle Buck and now the rapid rise in rates. if there isnt a "flight to quality" to drive treasury yields back down, then i could see some furners just taking their lumps and seeling into any UST rally. if you consider first the currency thunp, then the principal value loss on bond positions, Wimpy is killing them.

sorry abou the typos: i only finished two semesters are the capitalstool sekretarial sckool.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#58 The End

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:02 PM

For those who have not seen the COT.

http://www.traders-t...6962&folderid=1

They are adding shorts to the big contracts. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#59 The End

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:09 PM

By October, those commercials will be over 60,000 contracts short and we will fall till year end. IMHO an Doc's and Curry's and Larry's and Glenn's and Carver's and Prechters and Russel's and....
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#60 BartTheBear

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Posted 01 August 2003 - 09:13 PM

For those who have not seen the COT.

http://www.traders-t...6962&folderid=1

They are adding shorts to the big contracts. :wink2:

I was looking at that also. Wasn't sure if it was ok to post such a link here.

How about this one? Looks like the commercials are short short short the metals.

COT





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