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#61 coboy

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 08:43 PM

Check out that chart on SNDK.

What a shame.


There are many stocks like that.. Check out 52- week highs list from
http://stockcharts.c...servlet/SC.scan

Same stocks day after day make new highs..

Charts don't get any better than that one.

Looks like its about done for now.


That's exactly the kind of thinking that makes us miss those moves.. It seemed it was done one month ago, too..
Look at the weekly chart, it can go so much more.. October 2000 highs should be tested at 70..
I bet a lot of bears shorted the high volume gap in April, I used to do it..


What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move?  On so many stocks?  The best buying opportunity of the year?


Crash Complex ! The best buying opportunity was the time they look very sick, but at that time everyone was expecting crash, don't we remember Arch Crawford call, a 100 % probability of crash due to some planet angles... I personally bought it, never again ! :(
When it starts moving it moves very fast, everyone hesitates to buy high and so the story goes..

Last year I remember we used to have so much fun with IBD's high volume breakouts, shorting them was the money trade, this year seems like the joke is on bears..


And the year before that was the October lows?

And the year before that the 911 lows?

Spectacular moves each year.



We don't need to buy the bottom, opportunities are there every day..

How do we make sure we don't miss the next one?


This is a bear board, I am not at liberty to tell you ! :lol:

How do we make sure we don't constantly short into a Parabolic Blowoff like we may be experiencing now?


By shorting only the stocks lagging, that are sold on high volume in confirmed downtrends if you absolutely have to short..
It's not gonna give the same high as shorting EXPE, PNRA or any other high flier though..

#62 strikerm3

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:10 PM

What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move?  On so many stocks?  The best buying opportunity of the year?

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20

In every chart, the 20-period MA crossed over the 50-period MA in early April.

The trend is your friend. (Please remind me of that next time I'm fighting it.)

Thats what everyone was saying in March. Stay short the trend is your friend.

Is it true this time?

If you are a short-term trader (that's most of you), you better be following the shorter-term trends. The long-term trend has remained down, IMHO, but that's of little use to most.

not to get yelled at by everyone but I gotted called out on that. The definition of a bull market was met already...not that it matters now.

#63 Old Habits

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:24 PM

I know nothing, so please don't follow me. MSFT news should have set the market on fire, as should INTC news. Neither caused a major rally, the Naz sold off at the close (albeit only a little).

If you want to MAKE money, it might be wise to do the opposite of what I think.

But this is what I think. Today was the last day for bulls to get out for the next few weeks. Methinks we go down from here, with a vengeance.

Of course, I'm always wrong.

#64 summoner

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:26 PM

Spin everywhere...listened to Neely's interview twice...followed that with Krudlow and Creamer while on the treadmill...couldnt keep a straight face watching E Gharezelli...aka...the JOKER. According to Creamer anyone who believes the markets are overvalued is an IDIOT....at least we are in good co. Gammage as well as a few others I read expect downmove into early August followed by another run at the highs.....just waiting to see if Doc confirms!
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#65 mksloth

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:43 PM

We will NOT have infaltion until jobs are created.

"excluding the volatile food and energy components" of course...

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:46 PM

I know nothing, so please don't follow me. MSFT news should have set the market on fire, as should INTC news.  Neither caused a major rally, the Naz sold off at the close (albeit only a little).

 If you want to MAKE money, it might be wise to do the opposite of what I think.

 But this is what I think. Today was the last day for bulls to get out for the next few weeks. Methinks we go down from here, with a vengeance.

 Of course, I'm always wrong.

We're at a critical juncture imo Old Habits. All Ords is forming a possible double top but so many of the double top formations have been blown out lately that I'm cautious. There are many overbought stocks but also quite a few that have languished at the lows, not partaking of the rally. If there's more upside the Dover Sole stocks will be taken up.

Posted below is the DOW daily, currently in a triangle. The encouraging thing bearwise is that the triangle is tilted upwards slightly. This could mean that once the DOW approaches the apex it will break downwards. On the other hand the DOW could be consolidating at the high preparing for another upward push *sigh*

I've dipped a toe in on some shorts but remaining largely aside at this point.

Posted Image

http://www.signalwat...markets-dow.asp

#67 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 09:59 PM

Where is a link to that the comparison between the '30s Dow and the Nasdaq or SPX?

#68 3Martinis

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:00 PM

Posted Image


Would an 8% growth in money supply not, by definition, indicate an inflation rate of 8% ? ....... massaged statistics / ex this-n-that is just noise, no ?

inflation
noun
1 inflating, being inflated.
2 general rise in prices.
3 increase in supply of money regarded as cause of such rise.
inflationary adjective.

Is there not an 8% growth in the money supply (measured from same period last year) ergo: an 8% inflation rate ?

#69 RockLedge

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:16 PM

Another tragic recession victim -

Penthouse on the ropes

Saw the picture MH. One question. Was Bob Guccione the inspiration for the movie The Planet of the Apes?

Read the article.
Definitely a blow for the irradication of prostate cancer.

I think he or his son was the inspiration for a Guns 'N Roses song called Get in the ring.

I still have an issue from 1974. Guess I'll hang onto it.

Bart, re: Your 1974 issue: If it's kept you cancer free so far, I say stay with what works! :lol:

LMAO!

Whatta crew.

#70 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:21 PM

How do we avoid missing the next rally? Buy when Kramer and Krudlow are bullish.

#71 coboy

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:25 PM

How do we avoid missing the next rally? Buy when Kramer and Krudlow are bullish.


So, just close your eyes and buy buy buy ! :lol:

I think the defining moment for the bottom was Crapvision touting short selling for J6P.

#72 purdymouth

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:31 PM

POG 425 by Oct. 10?

Posted Image

#73 machinehead

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:33 PM

Is there not an 8% growth in the money supply (measured from same period last year) ergo:  an 8% inflation rate ?

Sure. Money supply growth in excess of GDP growth is inflation.

But the government has redefined inflation as rising prices, which can be blamed on the usual suspects -- hoarders, speculators, unions, oil companies, you name it -- instead of the money printers who really create it.

There's a further problem. The government is measuring only consumer prices, mainly of traded goods, which are in oversupply. But money inflation goes into rising stock, bond, house and property prices, too. Ignoring asset inflation was the main reason the Fed failed to realize it was feeding the 1990s Super Bubble.

Looking back today, we are appalled at the Fed's inaction and ignorance as a third of the money supply evaporated during the bank failures of the 1930s. A few decades hence, Magoo's blindness to asset inflation will be regarded as unimaginably incompetent ... particularly when papers were being written about it at the time, even within the Fed. And it's happening again now, as a gigantic real estate bubble has continued inflating (with Greenspan's enthusiastic encouragement) even during the stock market bust.

It's almost the inverse of the Thirties error. This time, they're wildly inflating the money supply, while the narrow traded goods sector (full of cut-price Chinese imports) convinces Magoo that there's "no inflation."
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#74 depends

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 10:46 PM

My indicator is still on a sell signal. (click below to see it)

When Doc said in stooltrading today to be careful putting
on new shorts I tightend up and even set some reversal
covers on. It worked and I got upswings on three issues.

Stool trading is helpful to me because it is a lean forum and
I can get the latest from Doc with no wasted time.

#75 wndysrf

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 11:23 PM

Another sector which looks like it is breaking out is the defense sector:

LMT, LLL, RTN, NOC, GD

I was looking at these about a month ago, but lost interest.

These stocks have been in a downtrend the last 12 mo. and are probably heavily shorted.

Keep an eye out on this sector as well as the OSX breakout today.

If these start moving, it could add more fuel to the cyclical bull case, or signal a sector rotation out of tech and into something else.

Allways a bull market somewhere.

No need in getting constantly squeezed on short plays.
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