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#46 Charliss

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:04 PM

ski, anyone?

#47 machinehead

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:16 PM

Wouldn't a retest of 1015 now send us over the much needed 9352 figure to trigger more buying?

It would. And despite all the churning this week, the proverbial S&P 1015 resistance is less than 22 points away ... a day's journey, with a decent boost from volatility.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#48 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:17 PM

What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move? †On so many stocks? †The best buying opportunity of the year?

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20

In every chart, the 20-period MA crossed over the 50-period MA in early April.

The trend is your friend. (Please remind me of that next time I'm fighting it.)

Thats what everyone was saying in March. Stay short the trend is your friend.

Is it true this time?

If you are a short-term trader (that's most of you), you better be following the shorter-term trends. The long-term trend has remained down, IMHO, but that's of little use to most.

#49 wndysrf

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:19 PM

McClellan Analysis by Kennedy Gammage:


The Short-Term Outlook: As anticipated, a sharp selloff in the market produced the second spike low on the McClellan Oscillator today with a preliminary spike low reading of -244 (ahead of tomorrow's [Friday's] options expiration).

The previous preliminary spike low reading a few weeks ago was -231, setting up the possibility of a formation seen frequently on McClellan Oscillator Complex Bottoms -- namely, a reverse head-and-shoulder. In this case, the left shoulder would be the -231, the head (if indeed today was the low reading, which may not be the case, since tomorrow, options expirations COULD see the Oscillator go to a closing reading LOWER than -244) , OR a reversal tomorrow to the upside could confirm today's low at -244..

No matter --today, or after a trading session or two, such a 2-5-day upside reversal WILL occur, on, or shortly after, options expire. Nimble speculators may wish to play the long side when that rally occurs, taking the McClellan Oscillator up toward Zero, but with the ability to get in and out only once a day on the Rydex and ProFund funds, it'll be dicey. Follow our telephone Hotline messages for Swingin' Riverboat Gamblers ONLY!

IF history is followed -- and it doesn't necessarily have to be, but if it is -- after the 2-5 day rally which takes the McClellan Oscillator back up toward the Zero Line poops out, we could see another drop, this time to a HIGHER spike low than -244. That drop would represent the right shoulder spike low, and take us down into the NYSE 20-week Hurst Nominal Market Cycle lows around early August, as projected by our colleague and cycles expert 'Frisco Jim.

Off of those early August NYSE 20-week cycle lows, which could coincide with the final third "right shoulder" spike of the current McClellan Oscillator Complex Bottom, we could see a gonzo rally of at least several week's duration, carrying the McClellan Oscillator strongly and decisively above Zero.

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#50 Fukui-san

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:22 PM

China TV: English Language Internet Broadcast

Gov't owned, but interesting nonetheless.

Business currently being presented in the "Asian News" stream.
A Shrug of the Shoulders.

We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.

An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.

#51 machinehead

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:38 PM

Another tragic recession victim -

Penthouse on the ropes
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:41 PM

Another tragic recession victim -

Penthouse on the ropes

Saw the picture MH. One question. Was Bob Guccione the inspiration for the movie The Planet of the Apes?

Read the article.
Definitely a blow for the irradication of prostate cancer.

#53 machinehead

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:46 PM

Saw the picture MH.  One question.  Was Bob Guccione the inspiration for the movie The Planet of the Apes?

Actually, no. The Planet of the Apes is alive, well, and enormously entertaining:

Congressional food fight

'By any standards, today represented a low point in the history of congressional comity. Democrats accused the GOP of running a police state; Republicans recounted how one Democratic member of the panel called a Republican colleague "you little fruitcake" in the midst of the standoff.'

:lol: :lol: :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#54 BartTheBear

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:47 PM

Another tragic recession victim -

Penthouse on the ropes

Saw the picture MH. One question. Was Bob Guccione the inspiration for the movie The Planet of the Apes?

Read the article.
Definitely a blow for the irradication of prostate cancer.

I think he or his son was the inspiration for a Guns 'N Roses song called Get in the ring.

I still have an issue from 1974. Guess I'll hang onto it.

#55 wndysrf

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:49 PM

Bears need to wait another 6 weeks or so, according to Lance:

Hopers just arenít going to give up and sell hard until we get closer to the fall, and that will make any decline that we get be a labored one (assuming I am even correct in thinking that exhaustion has finally set in. So, the bottom line is that until we get closer to the end of August and early September, the risk/reward ratio is still not in favor of the bears. As for myself, I continue to sit in gold shares and sit on my hands as far as short selling goes (although I do own a few deep out of the money October puts on some tech names, as I mentioned the other day). I still believe that regardless of whether we are lower or higher from current levels, the time for selling short will be in the fall when the second half recovery makes a no-show and hopers toss in the towel. There are no extra points given for catching the peak and being first to the party in this game (especially if youíre too early). Thatís the way this bear is approaching things at least for those that are interested.
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#56

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:51 PM

Another tragic recession victim -

Penthouse on the ropes

Saw the picture MH. One question. Was Bob Guccione the inspiration for the movie The Planet of the Apes?

Read the article.
Definitely a blow for the irradication of prostate cancer.

I think he or his son was the inspiration for a Guns 'N Roses song called Get in the ring.

I still have an issue from 1974. Guess I'll hang onto it.

Bart, re: Your 1974 issue: If it's kept you cancer free so far, I say stay with what works! :lol:

#57 BartTheBear

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:54 PM

Re:  Your 1974 issue:  If it's kept you cancer free so far, I say stay with what works! :lol:

:lol: :lol:

#58 Charvo

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:56 PM

I've been reading this forum for a few months, and I just wanted to add my thoughts to the forum every so often. Here's something to think about for Monday's trading. When the NDX has closed below its open on options expiration Friday, it has led to more declines almost every single time the following week. I believe December 20, 2002 was an exception, but the rally that followed was only for a couple of days before new lows ensued.

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 07:58 PM

What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move? †On so many stocks? †The best buying opportunity of the year?

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20

In every chart, the 20-period MA crossed over the 50-period MA in early April.

The trend is your friend. (Please remind me of that next time I'm fighting it.)

Thats what everyone was saying in March. Stay short the trend is your friend.

Is it true this time?

If you are a short-term trader (that's most of you), you better be following the shorter-term trends. The long-term trend has remained down, IMHO, but that's of little use to most.

Moving averages follow price. So just because some moving averages are pointing up is not a good reason to go long right now.

I didn't want someone to read that and say great I will go 200% long on Monday. I am with the trend so there is not much risk.

Right now the market has come a long way since March. It can go higher, but the risk going long now are much higher. Momentum has declined significantly since the top in the Dow and SPX in June.

Market can go either way from here but the odds are down due to the size of the advance in the timeframe. Best to stay flat until a clear trend can be identified.

We have gone sideways for the last month.

#60 alceringa

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Posted 18 July 2003 - 08:19 PM

Hello, Charvo. Good to hear from you.

Welcome to stoolville. Feel free to join right in.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson





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