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#106 Olduvai

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 03:25 AM

i  think INFLATION is killing us.....my gas natural bill up 35% in 2 years....gasoline up,electric up,cable up,home ins up,car ins up,food,doctor visits,heatlh ins has doubled in 2 years..average car prices are insane,house prices are insane,going out to dinner is outrageous,even a mcdonalds "value meal"is pushin 7 bucks...i can go on for hours :angry:  :angry:  :angry:

I don't know where this deflation is,i guess its just me gettin screwed!

all the things you have listed are not made in China. We have inflation on goods and services in which the Chinese don't export.

We have deflation in everything that the Chinese do export.

#107 ThorAss

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 03:37 AM

All hail the Austrians, and save an assassin for Neely for those who follow him into the Next BULL Market in a few months time will lose their shirts and will want blood. Most of the conditions for the end of the bear have not been met and will not be met in such a short time. A tanking of Gold ahead of the tanking of the markets and a surge in bonds would just be evidence of continuing faith in paper, debt and the US$. His scenario will not come to pass in the form he frames it. It is inconsistent and narrowly focused.

Long-term short the US stock market and long gold and PMS. Hang the Neelys and the Proctors. (I don't mean that literally.)
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#108 rayok

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 03:40 AM

....Funny board...never seen so many bears afraid to short parabolic stocks in my life..playing bear funds and indexes that can be manipulated while parabolic stocks collapse and provide bears massive gains for those with the bear balls common sense to short high and hold on.........The majority on this board seem like nothing but a bunch of nickel and dime scalpers of indexes...so anyway PD, you want that bet?

mobha, could a big shooter such as yourself explain to us little shooters how indexes such as the QQQ's are more easily manipulated than big ballsy stocks like PIXR? Teach us to be brave bears, thanks :P



#109 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 03:43 AM

Fast food prices insane? You can get a McBurger for $1, the same as you could about 5 years ago (sale price). Not sure where you live, but I find food prices absolutely stable. Was amused recently to go buy coffee (I use so rarely), and the price was on the can I was replacing from 3 years ago. The new price was lower. Just bought 18 eggs for 99c on sale. Was bemused because I know I paid more for those years ago.

House prices, college tuition, health care are up. No doubt. Insurance too, because the companies are compensating for their stock market losses by raising premiums.

But...gasoline? I have records since I bought my current car in 1996. Was paying $1.29 then. Couple months ago $1.39. Nothing to get excited over.

"Average car prices are insane?" Well, in 1996 I paid $30K out the door for a new Explorer. That was the best deal I could find, $200 over invoice, that kind of thing. I'd venture to say if I went out to buy the exact same car today, 2002 model, I could get in the ball park of the same price. And we are 6 years later.

Movie ticket in the local cheap theater $3, $1 on "Terrific Tuesdays". If I recall, those were the prices 5 years ago too.

Rent a DVD for $1 per night from Wherehouse. That seems lower to me that the $3 I remember it being a few years ago.

Paying 2.5c per minute for my nationwide long distance today. Used to pay 10c.

#110 BAREister

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 04:09 AM

Anyone with a scintilla of exposure to Washington knows white is black and VICE versa! Thus hASS it always been and shall be! Just LIVE there FUR more than a few weeks, ass hass HRFF done.

Our government lies its GODDAMASSOFF when it suits itz PURPOSE to doo-doo sew. Here's a RECENT example, from the mouth of Mr Rumsfeld, a fellow PRINCETONIAN:

"This (dispute and soon-to-be WAR) w Iraq/Saddam Hussein is SNOT about OIL."

HORSESHIT!!!

A hundred thousand times, HORSESHIT!!!

even 60 MINUTES seems to think sew, TOO! LMAZZOFF

now, back to the daily rap of Wyndy:

Some fellow of foreign heritage? ALLEGEDLY dictating? the agenda at one of our nations most venerable investment bonks once UDDERLY dominated by WASP's and Jews!?! Be he upstart? Parvenu? Arriviste?

How richly ironic.

o tempora! o mores!

Hilarious.

What is the measure of all things?

OLD money? or .... NEW?

Let New YAWWWKURRRZ, those FINAL? arbiters of matters monetary, decree!!!

LOLOL

In case y'all hadn't NOTICED, HRFF has a burr up his COUGH COUGH SPUTTER SPUTTER tonite.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#111 mobhasmorescruples

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:13 AM

Ruyak......ever heard of a company called MSFT? or how bout an oldie but a goodie INTC....Doesnt take too much to hold up the QQQ while NVLS tanks 10 dollars......amazing aint it?

#112 Jimbo

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:00 AM

THE GOLD MAGINOT LINE BREACHED

It appears that the gold Maginot line of $325 has finally been breached.

See Adam Hamiltons great article over at ZEAL of 27 September.

We are going to see lots of commodity beakouts, interest rate increases, debt defaults, inflation, stagflation, defecit spending, weak $US dollar from now on.

All this instability directly flowing from the excesess of the 90's.

A reprise of the 70's appears imminent.

I wonder if we will get the crappy fashions as well.

The 70's were the decade good taste forgot.
timoleon

#113 Goldmember

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:15 AM

Uncle Al Greenie has reached the top of the growth channel for FEED, exactly where it was December 2nd. We know what happened after that distribution top don't we? Let's see: Japan and HK a bloodbath, Futures on S&P DOWN five points, gold up a bit, and I wager Al Greenie does a little draining tomorrow to help da Boyz make some coin in their trading departments, as in short the crap out of it! As Mark's fabulous intro illustrates, GS has a hotshot head trader and guess which firm trotted out that hideous analcyst Abby Justa Colon recently, once again spewing utter lies and crap about "Buy Tech, blabba, valuation model, blah, blah, 30% upside from here, yadda, yadda, yadda," and other blatant outright lies. Meanwhile head trader wants to unload a bunch of CRAP onto the unfortunate unsuspecting dolts who may still listen to Abby, they were all fleeced on Monday and have visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads. AH HA HAH HA HA HA HA HA HA!!! Guess what GS head trader is going to do for the rest of the week? He's gonna be FULL SHORT ALREADY!!!! I will step back and watch the action. It is scam week after all!

Wadda: Looking at that list, and having faith el stock market is going down the drain, and fast, I would stick it in the money market account until you could roll it over into something that can work for you. Like BEARX or those Rydex funds some stoolies here love. I'm Canadian so I'm not really familiar with how you could do this. If what you listed is through your employer and only have those choices, I'd go for the money market until July 2004. Cash is KING for at least another year and a half. Precious Metals Fund if you want to retain your money's value whether inflation or deflation or both occur. The ultimate hedge! Funds like Rydex you can short the stock market with100% or 200% and nimbly move in and out into long funds, as you desire and whatever timeframes you may determine by hangin out at the Stool and preferably subscribing to Doc's Anals of Stock Proctology for better timing confidence.

I still firmly believe we start sinking from here, which should take a good many people by complete surprise, right up to Christmas. After that, who knows? A brief 2 day relief rally and then a serious week of plunging!! Good plunging too. Well, it's late, I'm rambling, and I'll wake up at noon and check out the action.
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#114 Goldmember

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:28 AM

I wouldn't short Pixar yet! Added to S&P 500 AND 4000 mutual funds that track this index are nowhere near finished buying it yet. I think they have till the end of the year to get into it and I'm sure some are pausing, hoping for a better entry. Your first gift of the new year would be to short all the crap recently added to the index, Pixar included, as all buying will surely be exhausted at that point. Early January has a good shot at a being serious sliding time for a little while. F!ck seasonal B.S.
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#115 HiHat

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:48 AM

Neely may or may not be proven correct.
He still comes off like a fruitcake without nuts.

#116

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 07:31 AM

Why not start an Internet Fund that stays in cash and looks for the inevitable short squeezes on the likes of EXPE, EBAY, YHOO, and ROOM? A 40% return while in the market for 45 days is a easy play. The rest of the time, the fund manager can stay in cash.

You're very right about that - except that your 40% expectations are waaay too modest, believe it or not.

Are you familiar with Wealth-Lab? They sell a product for development and testing of mechanical trading systems - but one can use it (less conveniently and with some limitations) on their Web site for free. Many of the visitors contribute their own systems, which are publicly available and regularly tested by the site.

Well, some of the most successful systems there are betting on "reversion to the mean" in falling markets. Yes, they go long in bear markets and make tremendous profits. The funny thing is that these systems suck in bull markets! They perform the best on the most crappy stocks that are falling the strongest - e.g., they will make more profits trading a basket of the stocks on the ISDEX index than those on the DJIA.

Let's take one example - Lindq MP PT=5 - or just about any of the lindq-type systems. As I said, you get the best results when applying the system to a basket of crappy stocks. In order to test the systen on a basket of ISDEX stocks, you need to get an account at the site (they are free), then bookmark the script and bookmark a "watchlist" of these stocks. It's a bit complicated to explain in details here, but click your way around the site and you'll figure it out.

If you don't feel like doing it, you'll have to take my word that a 1-year backtest of this system on these stocks results in 54.42% profit. Alternatively, you can simply plug individual stocks (e.g., the ones you mentioned) from the Web page that describes the system and see how they perform. You don't even need an account at the site, in order to do this. The profits won't be that big, but the winning rate will amaze you.

Or, you could click on the Historical Performance link in the upper right corner of the system's description. It runs a 1000-trading days backtest of the system on a basket containing the following stocks:

AA AAPL ALTR AMTD AMZN AOL ATML AXP BA BAX BBBY BEAS BMET BMY BVSN C CAT CCU CE CHKP CIEN CL CMCSK CMGI COST CSCO CTXS DIS DISH EK ERTS ET FISV GE GENZ GM GPS HD HNZ HON HPQ IBM IDPH INTC INTU IP ITWO JDSU JNJ JPM KLAC KO LU MCD MCHP MEDI MERQ MLNM MMM MO MOLX MSFT MXIM NETE NTAP NVLS NXTL ORCL PCAR PEP PFE PG PHA PMCS PSFT QLGC RATL RFMD RSAS SANM SAPE SBC SEBL SONE SPLS SPOT SSCC SUNW T TLAB TMPW USAI UTX VIAB VRTS VTSS WFC XLNX XOM YHOO

Well, guess what, for the 1000 trading days ending on November 30, the system makes 1700% profit.

Now, before you all get too excited about it, have in mind that the system is almost impossible to trade manually. You'll have to put a Day Buy Limit order for every single stock in the basket every single trading day. Easy to do with a computer, though.

Oh, and before you start thinking that the profits are too high, take a look at this other system. Same idea, but much simpler. Buy extremely Dover Sole crap (that has fallen 6% from the previous day's close) and sell the next day. 120,144.94% profits when trading the above basket of stocks for the 1000 trading days ending on November 30. I kid you not.

No wonder that the trading robots are overtaking the market and that the volume and volatility have gone sky-high...

Regards,
Vesselin

#117 Goldmember

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 07:32 AM

Happy belated Birthday Mark!!!! :D

Conseco declared BANKRUPTCY after midnight.

Here's a classic for one of your beach days:


Posted Image
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#118 Goldmember

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 08:00 AM

I'll be damned! James Bridges, gold anal cyst for JPM, says gold's got legs and if one is bearish on the U.S. dollar to buy lots of gold. Actual physical!!!!!! THIS COMING FROM JPM????????????????????? ON CRAPVISION????????? All be it on the early early show with duh redhead.

Uncle Al must have guaranteed their losses or they shipped one hell of a loot of gold over to JPM. Or do they actually support the dollar since the FEED has not really been reflationary at all? This the moment to suck in the gold longs and launch the dollah up for a little while? da Boyz has me wondering now! BIG DRAIN on the FEEDO coming up! FUR SHUR! Dec 2 again alright!
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#119 GregFokker

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 09:06 AM

I heard a similar rec from a JPM anal cyst when gold was at 295. I've never heard a bearish comment on gold from JPM.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#120 rayok

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 10:32 AM

Ruyak......ever heard of a company called MSFT? or how bout an oldie but a goodie INTC....Doesnt take too much to hold up the QQQ while NVLS tanks 10 dollars......amazing aint it?

NVLS and PIXR can not be manipulated the same way as MSFT or INTC ? All overvalued and manipulated stocks come down eventually. What is your point?





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