This Time It's Different
121 replies to this topic
Posted 18 December 2002 - 12:48 AM
Can anyone point me to the Rogers Raw Materials fund, or how I might purchase a CRB type instrument that is not a Futures ? Any Mutual fund suggestions I might look at that have a wide components inclusion ? Thanks.
Oh, BTW, in his latest comments (not the newsletter) Marc Faber says gold will be "significantly" higher.
Posted 18 December 2002 - 12:52 AM
Mob shorted 5000 shares PIXR today ....hope you win the bet ,still short MXIM and looking to reload ELX ...Down from here till end of year IMHO
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
Posted 18 December 2002 - 12:52 AM
Bottom line, everywhere else in the world Gold is money....and right now paper money is being printed into worthless village....covert you dollars into Gold and over the next decade you will become severely wealthy. Gold stocks overbought short term possibly, but monthly charts show RSI 7>14RSI>21RSI for the first time in 5 years...whats it mean? It means it would be hard if not damn near painstaking to wreck the new long term bull that is forming in Gold right now...Traders and near sighted investors disregard this message
Posted 18 December 2002 - 12:56 AM
I am happy with the PIXR short too........Looking on the monthly chart and weekly chart, I will look to cover low 50 range...If we have the allout crash I am expecting then screw it....Also buying puts on ZMH....200 million in net assets, and 7.5 billion mkt cap...something wrong there too.....cant put my finger on it exactly in the books, but cash flow way out of whack with earnings....
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:01 AM
inflation NO deflation NO inflation, futures up/down on MU debacle. The illogical becomes logical...shrimps learn to whistle (Leo Kotke)...
is this the making of a new bull market?
My patience for trading the long side is about 2-3 hours. For the permabull: this is roughly equal to the neuronal transmission velocity beginning with the sight of KLAC going green to the "buy" reflex (located deep in the cerebellum), to the seriously damaged, cocaine-blighted area of the dip-buyer corrtex, wherein the "Oh SHIT!" set of brain cells reside. Like a paleazoic squid, when you know the reflex, you can kill the prey. Just don't hang around for the funeral.
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:01 AM
Disregard? Never... we're due for a nice shakeout... I got short on that 340 print today... There's nothing sacred about any of this stuff, it's all stool to me even gold. I can't eat it and I can't take it with me, so in the long term it's nice to talk about, it's nice to look at the stock certificates... in fact, it has a lot in common with some tech stocks I bought a few years back... Come on MHMS, it's all stool, put a label on these things, I could care...
Let's face it, gold had a nice run and a breakout, what are the chances it won't pull back?
I see it's OK to short term trade short a tech stock like PIXR, but shorting gold or mining stocks is sacreligious... hehehe.
Not in my book.
Oh, but I forgot to add, I have a long term position in miners too, but I bought my long term positions a year ago... I'm up 500% on one of them at today's ridiculously inflated prices... but I'll hold it.
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:23 AM
"While most attempts to explain market failures search for triggering mechanisms in the hours, days or weeks before the collapse, Sornette argues that the underlying cause can be found months and even years before — in the build-up of cooperative speculation. He provides a step-by-step analysis, using cutting-edge statistical modeling techniques, as well as insights from physics."
This quote is from the article, "Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable; Major Decline Is Coming in 2003 and 2004, Says UCLA Physicist"
Here is the link regarding Didier Sornette's work:
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:25 AM
I am interested in a little gold stock I bought CBJ....trades at about 1 times sales...maybe a bit more now, but has earnings and could be a doubler over the next few years, and if Gold starts acting like PIXR or MXIM, it may just doubl ein the next few minutes......ehhehehehhehe...just kiddin...aint in GOLD to hit homeruns, just hedge my cash position...its either that or in my mattress.....no bank will see money in their speculative money market derivative debocles waitng toi shrink my beloved dollar into 65 cents....
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:29 AM
fart, I agree that GOLD stocks could pull back here....especially the likes of RGLD and ones like it...however, I was merely stating that based on some posts it seemed that many couldnt see the long term bull market forming which would allow them to buy at bottom trendlines....I am a trader too...although I take longer term positions many times...thats how I made 70 points on SCON from 85 to 15 on 4000 shares and 200 points on MSTR back in the day....aaahhh the accounting degree along with some common sense paid off....Not to include the stochasics on the weekly charts were 98, 97, 92, ....not unlike my favorite short to hold into 2003 PIXR...
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:43 AM
Lots of brave bulls with huge balls went long CSCO at 80 on margin and rode it right down to 20. I met one of them in an Asian Massage Parlor where she was turning tricks to make back the 100,000 she had lost. Has a lot more balls now than before.
A juvenile sense of humor is tolerable. Attacking, taunt and denigrate others is not. Perhaps there is a way to hide posts from selected individuals?
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:45 AM
why is there rarely a mention ogf the austrian school of economic analysis which i be;ieve will replace the Keynsian underpinnings of all modern day analysis-- for an example an austrian perception of the future of the automobile market will go as follows (i.e. if i understand it properly)
Near the end of the boom suvs and other mobile whales will be purchased by the millions by real estate bloated dufuses in an manner bordering the extravagantly orgiastic--then in the intermediate phase 0% interest and other market puffing incentives will foster more mindless buyong coincident with a diminution of capexpenditure--the hollowing out phase if you will--the lots will fill up with unsalable beauties and will commence to obey Says law of markets and will achieve their clearing price at negative ,say, negative %50 of cost of manufacturing--meanwhile plant aftr plant will shut down and the numbers of shiny new cars will begin to be noticably smaller--until they become rarities--
at this stage we shift into what the austrians would call a narrow production cone--more places making htings closer to the so called king consumer--the primary industries ,steel,glass,smelting etc begin to dissappear-and then like magic we notice the alteration of what passes for manufacturing--VOILA---REBUILDING USED CARS become a massive industry with an army of self-employed back yard mechanics working feverishly letting a thousand flowers bloom(where have we heard that before? could it have been Maos china with backyard steel mills?) w2ho knows any how the major secondary industries become remanufacturing brake pads,recycling tires sewing seat pads--This limited example that i hav laboriously drawn is what is gently referred to in Austrian parlance STRUCTURAL PRODUCTIVE DISFIGURATION----AND this is what i envision happening to our econome
As i like to say i see myself inthe buisness of recycling used baby diapers or FROM HI-TECH TO LO-DRECH!!!!
why an i so excited? Wouldn't u be if someone put paprika in your jock strap?
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:56 AM
Beardrech, you come up with great stuff. As I was reading your post, I was thinking "this sounds like Cuba" and then you bring up Mao - had forgotten the back yard foundries. Sillyness aside, the process will be a devolution from big to small and on such processes is our hope imo.
It seems clear to me that any mention of the Austrian School of Economics immediately relegates one to the "Nut" pigeonhole and is not appropriate for discussion in any media except as a target profile for Homeland Security. A clear understanding of Austrian economics is the most deadly poison to the current PTB and not to be tolerated.
Posted 18 December 2002 - 01:59 AM
this is just one of many industries future---ther is no oversupply of goods and services--and why becuse tha alleged oversupply was a function of eating our investible seedcorn--what you will see is shortages of every kind everywhere because of the very disfiguration i mentioned--the surplus while real is momentary--what is illusory is the reference to its perpetuity--
please do not get me wrong i am essentially inthe long run an optimist but for now the logic of surrealistic fiannce the vacuum cleaner in the shape of INFOTECK ,which absconded with all the money that would ,ordinarily, have been invested in breadmaKing machinery;welding equiptment;new power generators whatever life needs ,and will,FOR MANY YEARS, dominate the logic of production; and we will pay for it; through our assholeS; with compound interest
Posted 18 December 2002 - 02:06 AM
so certain am i of the correctness of the austrian analysis that for the time, when this over, and we see the economic landscape with absolute transparency ,i will senf into battle what i am currently lining up:namely a group of assasins for taking care of certain members of my extended family who have been mocking me for all these many years
Posted 18 December 2002 - 03:25 AM
Here's the choices in my Principal Financial Group 401k.
I'm 100% in the Principal Bond & Mortgage Separate Account.
I'm afraid all the funds that haven't been shot already will soon be leaving only the stable group where you only get 1.5% return if you're lucky.
The question is, "Do I move into a low rate now or sit and wait awhile?"
Guaranteed Interest Account 5 year
Principal Money Market Separate Account
Principal Bond & Mortgage Separate Account
Principal Government Securities Separate Account
Principal Bond Emphasis Balanced Separate Account
Principal Large Cap Stock Index Separate Account
Principal Medium Company Value Separate Account
Principal Partners Large-Cap Blend I Separate Account
Principal Real Estate Separate Account
Principal Stock Emphasis Balanced Separate Account
Principal Medium Company Blend Separate Account
Principal Small Company Blend Separate Account
Principal International Stock Separate Account
Go ahead, void the warranty...
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