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#46 Yaryman

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:38 PM

I think I've figured out Micron's problem.

On 3/26/00 I purchased 64MB SDRAM PC100 from Micron for $50.39 plus shipping.
On 5/29/01 I purchased 128MB SDRAM PC133 from Micron for $35.99 with free shipping.
On 9/4/01 I purchased 128MB SDRAM PC100 from Micron for $18.89 with free shipping.

Today on ebay you can buy Micron 512MB SDRAM PC133 for $45.00

It's hard to make money when the price of memory falls from 78.7 per MB to 8.8 per MB in 33 months.

Maybe Joe Osha didn't know that when he came up with this insight yesterday.

"Merrill Lynch anal cyst Joseph Osha said he expects Micron, of Boise, Idaho, to post quarterly sales of $951 million
and loss of seven cents a share.

For his bullish forecast, Mr. Osha cites better average selling prices for dynamic random access memory, or DRAM,
and the company's speedy transition to DDR memory."

http://biz.yahoo.com...51000518_1.html

#47 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:40 PM

For what it is worth, I just got off the phone with a trader whom i dubbed Mr. Big. The guy has been wrong twice in three years and he sees 980ish as well. So Listen to Neely or Don't, I will, with a % of $.

Good luck to all.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#48 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:47 PM

For those of you who won't press a few keys or don't have speakers, Neely said that after we get to 980+ we will promptly go to 600 (spx) +- 50 points. "too bullish"?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#49 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:50 PM

Re: Neely

We had all better HOPE he is right. If he is, dollar up, oil goes down and *maybe* the economy avoids the 30's scenario. If gold goes over $360, dollar down, oil will go over $50/bbl and we go into the pooper.

I suppose that Neely is saying that gold will start following stocks, rather than doing the opposite - as it has been in the recent past. So perhaps the "tell" would be that if the SPX, DJI and NDX indeces AND gold AND gold stocks start running together, we are very near the end for gold, and stocks. When gold is no longer seen as the anti-stock, it will pop and drop.

If gold goes over 370, we have the 70's. If it stays under and drops, we have the 90's again?

A depression is merely a bad recession made worse by flawed government policies.

P.S. If Neely is right about gold, you should avoid BEARX because the 10% gold component will probably make it underperform the reverse index funds.

#50 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:52 PM

For what it is worth, I just got off the phone with a trader whom i dubbed Mr. Big. The guy has been wrong twice in three years and he sees 980ish as well. So Listen to Neely or Don't, I will, with a % of $.

Good luck to all.

980 is just a number, I got no problems with it, lots of silly things happen during these holiday trading sessions... who remembers 97 and 98 over these holidays when the idiots ran the Y2K software stocks to the moon?

As far as Pixar, why short Santa Claus? Pixar is going up because they are getting a pump from all the movies and characters they've created, the holidays is a natural time for the stock to run... Again, boyzngirlz, silly stuff, who remembers 4 Kids Entertainment over some friggin japanese toy every kid had to have...The stock went ballistic over the holidays

So why be short this trash? Let em have their Lobster at the Beach (Sandy Claws) rally..

When the real traders return in January, though, it's going to be a whole different story. Meanwhile, take a vacation, draw some bucks down out of your trading account, don't let a silly ass market ruin your holiday... JMO, FWIW, and please use protection if you decide you HAVE to trade this POS...

#51 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:54 PM

For those of you who won't press a few keys or don't have speakers, Neely said that after we get to 980+ we will promptly go to 600 (spx) +- 50 points. "too bullish"?

You forgot about the part where Neely says then we'll have a 4 or 5 year bull market after it bottoms...

#52 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:59 PM

Fart,

I did not forget. This is a bear board and things change. Neely might well change as well.

Let us pay attention to the shorter term, OK?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#53 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:02 PM

Fart,

I did not forget. This is a bear board and things change. Neely might well change as well.

Let us pay attention to the shorter term, OK?

OK, I'll listen to Neely, but he's not one of US... Da Bears. Just so we got that straight, he's long term bullish.

#54 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:08 PM

Fart,
Agreed. Also I ain't saying anybody should follow anyone. Just hear the guy out.

In this market , or any market, it pays to have an open mind.

Peace fellow stoolie. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#55 PileDriver

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:09 PM

...and what happens if it doesn't go there first (which I give a 0.000001% probability) but goes down from here? Then what? Chase it?! Doubtful.

That's why I'm playing BEARX for now. After leviation act is over and I've thoroughly enjoyed my holidays I'll switch to a pile-driving shortfolio of turds. :lol:

#56 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:13 PM

Pile,

I got NO problem being short. 980 ain't the moon. and 600 is very tantalizing. :grin: :grin: :grin:

As long as we don't freak out, and cover, should we get there.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#57 PileDriver

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:16 PM

TE, I know that...just had to put in my two cents. :grin:

Thanks for the Neely link. I've been prepared for that possibility all along, but many may not be...good idea to post it. Open mind at all times, alwys looking over your shoulder.

Luck buddy!

#58 The End

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:22 PM

Stoolies,

Nobody seems to understand me. I don't know why. I don't flip, flop around. I don't get wishy washy. I just am here becuase NOBODY around me seems to understand my bearishness. (plus doc is great).

I am a realist. I see the market as over valued and i see it going down to 606-444 (spx) eventually. But, i lost 250,000 last year being a bear. (i was up for clients not trading options, however).

Alz i nose iz, you got to know when to hold em' and when to fold em'.

I hope i learned that leason. Bin straddled for weeks as this pos has gone noware.

Will go net long and then short soon.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#59 brian4

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:25 PM

Assmaster_ Gold may well go to $200.- an ounce-because we probably will go the deflation scenario. When (if you're lucky enough to be working) your wages are cut by 1/2, a six pack is a buck and the nickel cigar returns and the 500k house is trying to be sold for a 100k.-GOLD will KEEP it's relative value-that's what GOLD is VALUE denominated relative to the economy of the day... It wasn't just the dirty 30's in 46 and 47 the vet's would knock on your door offering to garden, rake leaves or clean house for a crummy sandwich. You and many others are the children of a privileged generation who are about encounter reality as your parents and grandparents felt it. Get Ready and Trade Safe!

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 11:25 PM

The Nikkei had its first gain in ten sessions yesterday. Today it's back in the dumpster and is already 139 points in the red @ 8371. The Japanese wants a weaker yen but apparently President Bush wants a strong dollar now. Wasn't the dollar policy one of the reasons why he swapped economic teams in the first place?

A weaker dollar will help avert deflation in the US for the time being but not forever. As long as the Chinese Renminbi is pegged to the US dollar, the whole world will get flooded by cheap Chinese products. A weaker dollar will hurt first and foremost Europe and Japan. We've got to let the Renminbi float and appreciate in value like the market would have it do.

Anyway, the US needs a softer currency to eliminate the trade deficit and bolster US manufacturing. There is repatriation of foreign funds but not yet at an alarming speed. That may change as we move closer to "neutralising" Saddam. I won't change my bearish mindframe until we see 5,000 on the Dow and gold @ $500





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