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Bubblemania, Big Time


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#16 wndysrf

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:47 AM

There is no stock bubble. Most stocks are moving up in an orderly, predictable manner typically found during cyclical bull markets.

Decent gap up on USNA, ISIL to new highs.

SUNW and BEAS look like the next stocks to break out and start moving.

I presume that reallocation from bonds to stocks will start accelerating now.
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#17 wndysrf

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:54 AM

Dan "The Greaseman" Niles coming up on Crapvision......
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#18 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:02 AM

Wndysrf

The 12-month change in CPI was 2.1%. Thus the current 3-month T-bill rate of 0.9% is -1.2% in real terms.

Negative real rates (monetary stimulus) plus 5% of GDP budget deficit (fiscal stimulus). That's one of the most balls-out stimulative stances in history.

What's it imply? Probably, artificial stock market boom this year; artificial economic boom next; then another worse bust in both. We are burning the furniture to make a nice bonfire at the lawn party. Enjoy.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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#19 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:08 AM

The whole commentary is published on a website (maybe without permission), but it's a site that can't be linked from Capitalstool.

Just go to tinyurl.com and tinyurl it. They will never know of the link.

#20 Ned38

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:11 AM

Odd that gold isn't getting slammed

#21 soup

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:13 AM

machine: all that stimulus and the economy continues to detoriate. Throw in the fact that 10s are now north of 4%, and you get one big mess. No more re fi bubble, no more liquidity for stocks. Repeat after me, all the kings horse and all the kings men can not put humpty dumpty back together again. You can not cure the patient with the same medicine that nearly killed him. No way this works in a world swimming in overcapacity and supply. EOR.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#22 crooked_analyst

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:13 AM

There is no stock bubble. Most stocks are moving up in an orderly, predictable manner typically found during cyclical bull markets.

Decent gap up on USNA, ISIL to new highs.

SUNW and BEAS look like the next stocks to break out and start moving.

I presume that reallocation from bonds to stocks will start accelerating now.

100-200 point openings is orderly?

24% - 45% increase in a 2-3 month period is orderly?

I trust you are kidding....

#23 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:14 AM

Richard Russell July 15th commentary:

http://tinyurl.com/h3ls

Host site contains other content that may be offensive to some. No endorsement implied.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#24 DrStool

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:14 AM

Today's Bear Zone Stool For those in the know.

Everybody else stay here at:

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If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#25 gruff

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:14 AM

9:15am Industrial production and Capacity utilization reports
10am More Greenspin gobbledegook
10:30am Energy Dept. oil stocks

BBZ
ES 1004.705 ~ 1005.144
NQ 1309.589 ~ 1310.153

USD higher
Yerpean bourses up

#26 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:14 AM

There is no stock bubble. Most stocks are moving up in an orderly, predictable manner typically found during cyclical bull markets.

A bubble, as I use the term, means that prices have far exceeded the fundamentals and will eventually decline greatly and painfully for everyone involved. How orderly the rise isn't a factor.

#27 Fukui-san

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:15 AM

Weill Steps Down as Citi CEO; Prince Named as Replacement

Posted Image

This is getting funky.
A Shrug of the Shoulders.

We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.

An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.

#28

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:18 AM

Odd that gold isn't getting slammed

It's still early. :unsure:

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:23 AM

machine: all that stimulus and the economy continues to detoriate. Throw in the fact that 10s are now north of 4%, and you get one big mess. No more re fi bubble, no more liquidity for stocks. Repeat after me, all the kings horse and all the kings men can not put humpty dumpty back together again. You can not cure the patient with the same medicine that nearly killed him. No way this works in a world swimming in overcapacity and supply. EOR.

Who said that it had to work? You think that the monetary and fiscal madness is more than a desperate delaying action? All these guys are doing is keeping the wheels on long enough to loot the treasury and get out of town. :o

#30 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 09:28 AM

You can not cure the patient with the same medicine that nearly killed him.  No way this works in a world swimming in overcapacity and supply.

You're right. The patient is terminal.

But a triple dose of Oxycontin, crank and BC bud will have him feeling fine for a few hours, before he checks out for good.

Enjoy the last party; that's our future going up in smoke.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss





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