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Bubblemania, Big Time


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#1

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 06:40 AM

. . Posted Image

These NASA Hubble Space Telescope snapshots reveal dramatic activities within the core of the galaxy NGC 3079, where a lumpy bubble . . .

#2 Bird D Durr

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:28 AM

JPHearWeGoAgain.......................................

Moon Bound.............................

#3 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:42 AM

"I just find it amazing that even as [Greasepan] sits here and predicts this whopping economic growth [3.75% to 4.75%] he sees greater risk of deflation in 2004 than in 2003,'' said Karl Haeling, head of fixed-income sales ..."

Bonds Crater Worldwide

So true, Karl, so true. One of those choices -- growth or deflation -- is an utter fantasy. The markets think it's the latter. We'll see what Mr. CPI has to say about that at 8:30 a.m.

If CPI comes in strong the day after Greensin was talking deflation on TV, his last shred of credibility would be destroyed. Surely he got a peek at the number before entering the Congressional jackal cage?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#4 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:44 AM

tress test for bears:

everyone breathe deep, -g-

:D

#5 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:51 AM

wtf was that in the es futures?

#6 GregFokker

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:53 AM

wtf was that in the es futures?

The reason why I'm starting to just set stops and targets and walk away. Made me nutso yestiddy.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#7 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 07:58 AM

The reason why I'm starting to just set stops and targets and walk away. Made me nutso yestiddy.

sometimes walking away best thing to do. those spikes either way are frustrating

#8 OceanBound

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:12 AM

wtf was that in the es futures?

That is simply 1500 contracts changing hands. Do not be all-armed! :shocked It is only a test. :unsure: NO meltdown is possible,:huh: everything is under control. Go long and buy the future. :) You are safe now. Sir Greeny will protect you. :ph34r: He has unconventional methods to protect you. :o Buy now and buy lots. It is safe. :blink: :ph34r: :blink:

#9 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:22 AM

From a July 15th commentary by Richard Russell:

"So, how am I celebrating 79 years on planet earth? One way is that I made a decision. Today (I've been thinking about this for weeks) I sold ALL my bonds, every last one.
 
"Why did I do it? I did it because the US is heading for maybe the greatest financial mess in world history. The US is far too extended financially, militarily and socially (socially in the way of entitlements that we can't afford and can't pay for)."

The whole commentary is published on a website (maybe without permission), but it's a site that can't be linked from Capitalstool.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#10 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:27 AM

latest investors intelligence #'s

bulls 57.4 from 56.5

bears 17 from 18.5

#11 DrStool

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:28 AM

Good morning and Good Stool to all!

We had some ugliness in gold and the PM's yesterday. To worry or not to worry. That is the question. Download your Golden Stool now and that's one less worry for today.

If you're not a subscriber, Click Here and download your Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

And please remember to at least look at the ads on this page from time to time! Support the Stool. Read the banner ads! You never know when something might interest you. :wink2:

machine- why not? Russell is saying exacly what I've been saying.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#12 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:37 AM

CPI +0.2%; core 0.0%

Yield on the tens hit 4.02% this morning.

4% yield, 4% GDP??? Supermodels say "I don't do math. All I wanna do is dance."
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#13 Idumpdaily

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:39 AM

The bottom line here, is that none of you are right. The market is right, Doc is not right, OY, SG or anyone. The problem is that when we follow one of them because they are right sometimes, we tend to overallocate based on their guesses and that is where we get hurt. Fib numbers, Gann, stars, moon, its all a joke when you lose and they are gods when you win.
I have traded with some of the "best" and it all comes down to one thing, ALLOCATION.
Over allocate and you WILL lose.

Set stops and create a system that eliminates discretion at the operating level. It has been fun reading this thread.

Have a good life.

#14 machinehead

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:43 AM

Have a good life.

That's what a cafe waiter said in Amsterdam, when I was confused about the dollar-guilder exchange rate and tipped him almost 15 dollars.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#15 coboy

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Posted 16 July 2003 - 08:44 AM

From Brian Reynolds in minyanville.com


Remember that Treasury yields had already moved to low levels in April before we got the rally in May from amateur bond speculators who piled into the market.

To me, that rally was like pouring gasoline on a smoldering fire, and refis surged to record levels because of it. Now, those amateurs are gone, chased out of the market yesterday when Greenspan dashed their hopes that the Fed would start buying Treasuries hand over fist, and bond yields have risen to where they were in May before that last rally began.

That rise in yields shuts off new fuel from being added to the fire, but it doesn't remove what was added. We've had two months of super-strong refi applications that are locked in and will close sometime between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, and refis will still continue at a well above normal pace with the 10-year at around 4%. I don't think that the Treasury market even begins to impinge on the economy until approaches the 4.50% area (and that is subject to change, and is a function of how quickly it moves).

As I've written numerous times in the past, I think the major driver in this type of environment is the corporate bond market, not the Treasury market. In order of importance, I'm looking at the tone of the market (can companies access it after being shut out last year?), spreads (how risk-averse are investors) and, in a distant third place, price. All three factors are much better than they were a year ago. The yield on a typical junk bond has gone from 14% in October to 9% now; a few basis points in yield on Treasuries one way or the other isn't going to make a big difference when compared to that kind of move.





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