What do they know that we don't know?
312 replies to this topic
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:02 PM
Looks like the ramp up!
Notice that Thursday is 89 trading days from the March lows and 21 days from the 1015 high in the Spoo. Both fib numbers. Could be an orderly turn day.
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:05 PM
The banks produce a consumer product out of thin air called DEBT it's main selling feature is "It'll make your dreams come true" and they attach a charge called interest to it that is not created out of thin air...
The only way to make your dreams come true is if you pay the interest charge and the only way to do that is by consumption of more debt with interest charged on it...
Rates are lowered to entice consumers to consume more debt to increase volume so that banks can stay solvent based on increasing volume... If you have a product that is not being consumed in great enough quantities you have to lower the price to increase volume... Eventually the majority of the consumers have consumed the product and the remaining consumers cannot provide more volume... Then you have to raise the price...
Fact: Intrest due to banks is the price you pay to make your dreams come true...
Fact: The only way to pay interest due to banks is by consuming more debt with interest attached...
Fact: Banks can not survive if the rates aproach ZERO unless the volume increases...
Fact: Once volume dries up banks must raise rates but then volume will dry up faster then they can raise rates...Rates must hold or keep dropping forever...
Fact: The product known as debt is the money supply and as long as it is inflating prices will rise...when volume dries up prices, wages and or employment will have to drop to survive on a smaller volume of debt in circulation.
Once the ability for consumers to consume debt reaches it's maximum potential there is no way to maintain the volume to sustain real estate price inflation and equity which is the dream coming true evaporates rapidly... Cascading defaults will begin as the process quickens as more debt creation is impossible to sustain or overpower debt deflation it will climax in a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt... 97% of the money supply of the US is debt which will be wiped out...
Fact For this debt inflationary game to continue "forever" intrest rates have to be lowered forever which is impossible...Are we at the point of the beginning of the end?
If Real estate pops there will be no turning back... So the FED better drive all rates down as low as they can go... and quickly...
what happens when rates have gone as low as they can go and consumers have consumed the maximum amount of the product known as Debt which makes their dreams come true?
Fact: Game over, debt deflation will be impossible to stop...
Beginning of the end now? or in the next 7-11 months it doesn't matter time is very short to come to grips with the grim realities of a vaporising money/debt supply.
The current system has a maximum potential and we are very close to reaching it.
Hyper...How will we know when we have reached it?
When you are crying...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:06 PM
Personally I wouldn't fault the Fed etc for this. Probably the big boyz in the gold pits. They would like to shake out the weak hands so that they can buy more at lower prices AGAIN.
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:06 PM
You're correct, I don't even trade futures..
So, yesterday those MM's suddenly disappeared ?
All I am saying is that, if your agent (broker or MM) doesn't have to make you a market (like specialists of Nasdaq dealers have to do) there may be no bid situations, yesterday probably was one of them.. Also, I am saying that brokers (or MMs) in futures markets usually execute orders for their clients, if you want to sell a contract they don't take the other side of it, order goes to the pit or to globex..
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:10 PM
I hope none of you guys think I've been making big coin in this market. I've been holding my own so to speak but big money. NOT.
ps I know you guys are just kidding me. Let's hope this market turns down finally.
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:11 PM
Rich,I hope none of you guys think I've been making big coin in this market. I've been holding my own so to speak but big money. NOT.
yes, I am kidding...and also grateful for your charts...even if you took my $$
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:13 PM
Shorted INTC into the close. We'll see how that turns out.
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:15 PM
Looks like "beat by a penny" madness is on.
Seagate beats, Motorola, no doubt INTC will do the same.....
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 15 July 2003 - 04:30 PM
That's very different from your first statement that MMs don't exist on electronic exchanges because orders are matched electronically.You're correct, I don't even trade futures..
"So, yesterday those MM's suddenly disappeared ?"
Yes -They probably pulled their bids. If you look at the typical sizes on the bid and offer on ES, they are regularly 300-1000 at the first 5 price levels (that's all they let us see now - it used to be more).
So, if at least 1500 - 5000 contracts disappear all at once, without a corresponding sell order, it's likely to be the MMs pulling them rather than because 5000 independent traders pulled their one lots in unison.
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board