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Mark 2 Market Weak End


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#46 3Martinis

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 08:51 PM

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#47 Hypertiger

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 09:03 PM

I'm being too hard on machine... I flipped sorry... his commodites play is the right path... I figure cans of chunky soup has more pricing power then the auto industry...

Debt will be vaporized but cash will be king...unless they try the dumptrucks full of cash dumping on street corners trick...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#48 mjkst27

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 09:26 PM

Hyper makes an iron clad case, IMHO. Any legitimate muddle-through scenario (forget bullish scenario) case must be able to explain convincingly where and how the next asset bubble will occur that will pick up the ball from housing. What funds will fuel it? What "I'm getting wealthy" fallacious belief on the part of the sheep consumer will drive the necessary volume of transactions with religious zeal?

#49 BAREister

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 09:32 PM

HRFF increased his USPIX position by 50% this day...a "FUR"day lol
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#50 depends

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:03 PM

Surprise, surprise.

The market meter I keep has just given a preliminary
sell signal. (click below)

So, I don't hate it anymore; at least not today.

#51 Fukui-san

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:20 PM

i spit in Wimpy's direction... :lol: he has declared war on savings, thrift, prudence and common sense.

BTW, i was in canton in the 1980's and it looked like a low-grade tijuana. i assume its much better now, but id have never considered living there, even if they were accepting PeeBs.

The gov't and Wimpy are telling everyone that "black is white".

The disinformation is as bad as in any country I've been to, including ones with
real or defacto dictatorships.

Btw, back in the 1980's most streets in Beijing were dirt roads. The coastal cities are changing very rapidly. The further inland (west) one goes, the more things are as they were.

Shenzhen today in Guandong (Canton)
A Shrug of the Shoulders.

We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.

An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.

#52 Pee Brain

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:31 PM

i spit in Wimpy's direction...  :lol:  he has declared war on savings, thrift,  prudence and common sense.

BTW, i was in canton in the 1980's and it looked like a low-grade tijuana.  i assume its much better now, but id have never considered living there, even if they were accepting PeeBs.

The gov't and Wimpy are telling everyone that "black is white".

The disinformation is as bad as in any country I've been to, including ones with
real or defacto dictatorships.

Btw, back in the 1980's most streets in Beijing were dirt roads. The coastal cities are changing very rapidly. The further inland (west) one goes, the more things are as they were.

Shenzhen today in Guandong (Canton)


f-san,

thats amazing. where are all the bicycles?
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#53 doniam

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:31 PM

I remember Black Monday pretty well. I was dabbling in futures at the time. (Small amounts, and ended up losing small amounts)  I had some IRA stock funds as well but didnt' touch them. My focus wasn't on stocks, it was on bonds.

etc etc

I recall that time as well. I had written quite a few naked puts. Don't recall the stocks but they were going badly that Friday afternoon and I bought them back.
When I got the fill report i was upset about how much I had to pay and had the broker challenge the trade.

Turned out on Monday that I had bought them back just in time or I would have been really hurt.

#54

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:34 PM

Shenzhen today in Guandong (Canton)

What a difference, when I was there the first time (12 years ago) it was nothing. and the last trip (4 years ago) I was amazed. Now it just unbelieveable.

Thanks for the pic's as I haven't been to the far east since my forced retirement.

P.S. Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1994 doesn't even show Shenzhen on it.

#55 BigWave

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:39 PM

I, in partnership with 2 people, own a small manufacturing business which makes a semi-specialized, low tech part used in the replacement of roof top HVAC units. We design the part specifically for the application, but can then resell it again when the opportunity arises as these applications can repeat. Nothing fancy, plasma cut or shear various types of sheet metal, break into shape, and weld together. Certain barriers to entry exist as the design of the part requires an expertise that is more experience than knowledge, but the part is VERY important to the proper operation of the new HVAC unit so we are compensated well, 40-50% gross margins. (Of course when we f*ck-up, it's fixable but expensive.. Have 15 shop workers and last nite, we had a big project that had to ship by 1:00 am in order to meet the customer's expected delivery time in Oklahoma. Freight carrier is standing by and my guys are working like spartans in 100 degree, 100% humidity conditions. I'm wilting just standing in the shop. As I watched these guys, who make from $8-14 an hour, working with such purpose and getting it on the road by Midnite, I thought about how what we were doing was such a basic and fundamental way of making money. Since the beginning of commerce,men and women have turned raw materials into finished goods employing tools, labor, experience, and ingenuity. Like the trading of gold or silver, this has been a constant thru the ages. In the Hyper scenario, this will also survive. During the day, I sit in my office and occasionally trade as time permits and when I make some coin, I feel good (as Fast Eddie said, "money won is twice as sweet as money earned), but not like when we ship a project successfully and the funds clear. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I like the thought of being part of what's left of American manufacturing.

Some times when we bicker on CS, I think of my guys covered in sweat and grinding in the heat and then I remember how good we have it.

Pile- I think you might be right on the ELP concert, pretty sure it was 1977. Keith Emerson's piano levitated and then started spinning. Of course that was a lot of fried brain cells ago :lol:

Best concerts- 1977 Springsteen in MSG-NYC, 1976 The Who in the inaugural event in the Houston Summit.

#56 Slothrop

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:44 PM

Big Wave: solid, well-written, heartfelt post. Thanks for sharing.

#57 PileDriver

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:45 PM

Surprise, surprise.

The market meter I keep has just given a preliminary
sell signal. (click below)

So, I don't hate it anymore; at least not today.

Depends,

On the weekly and even daily graphs note the massive negative divergences on BSR, RT, MTI.

All while insiders selling like mad and Commercials still heavy short.

These opps don't come along very often.

Seize them when they do.

#58 PileDriver

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:49 PM

Bigwave,

July 9th, 1977 Madison Square Garden

Saw Pink Floyd July 4, 1977

Lost many brain cells and hearing between the two.

Tickets cost a whopping $10.50 for loge seats!!! :lol:

#59 BigWave

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:52 PM

Thanks Sloth..don't get me wrong, I admire and respect the ability of many of the traders here, yourself included, and even aspire to be one someday when I sell this company :lol: . The knowledge shared here certainly improves my odds.

#60 BigWave

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Posted 11 July 2003 - 10:58 PM

Never saw Pink Floyd and still regret it. 2 concerts in 5 days, yikes...Ah the days of our youth.. Saw The Stones this year and my ears were ringing for 2 days. But they rocked.





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