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#286 Pee Brain

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:13 PM

I don't know how many of you have read PB's link to the Dallas Fed-but you should! By the very FACT this crap is posted on a FED website indicates we are not near the cliff but OVER it! What they are saying is " SPEND IT OR LOSE IT" PB's comment rings true doesn't it! Trade Safe!


B4,

thanks for the referring others, your opinion carries a lot of weight.

BTW, its not just posted there, one of the guys that wrote it ( koening) i think is like vice governor.

just how bad does it have to be, or anticipated to get, to be floating those types of remedies.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#287 Fukui-san

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:15 PM

Interesting chart of the price of gold versus dollar based liquidity, link courtesy of Mishedlo at TMF:

http://www.bcaresear...RE-20030623.GIF

I would love to see this chart, or something similar to it, updated frequently by Doc :grin:

Thanks for the link.

Very interesting chart as was the insider trading chart.
A Shrug of the Shoulders.

We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.

An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.

#288 Goldmember

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:28 PM

Simple chart for deaf eyes, deaf ears, and deaf minds, as Realist put it, realistically...

....given the doubters the bear camp seems to contain.

Dow chart:

.....cmap projection close enough, where two mathematically derived moving averages cross would mark the half-way point of the move....

.....as far as green fucutures go tonight, they are only of a fucuture nature, if one disregards the rising 3-day cycle, within the context of a descending 8 and 13-day cycle....and if one read my earlier post where $SPX would be a sell-athon between 1002-1005....then green fucutures are nothing more than a gift....to sell into....don't miss it!

....as far as continued silliness by the bull camp.....fugedaboudit...


.....note the green ma is not even a threat to cross the magenta ma....therefore, hasta la vista silly bullies......

.....remember, there's more to the Anals than an awesome FEED analysis....psst...it's the cmaps, follow the cmaps.....follow the cmaps....follow the cmaps....

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Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#289 BAREister

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:30 PM

re attitudes of labor in IND

HRFF comes FURom the Upper Ohio River Valley. His mother's family was in big steel.

His father represented many of the local corporations. He's plugged in to the circle that runs things and they ran it (with the energetic assistance of their union employees) straight into the ground. They AND labor. The mentality of confrontation has always appalled him - still does. Instead of cooperating, they fought AND fought AND fought some more. Instead of innovating and modernizing they clipped coupons and siphoned off profits. The Europeans and the Japs were modernizing furiously under their schnozzola's but they might as well have had blindfolds on. Then FUReign competition ate their lunch. The unions were so damned greedy, it was ridiculous. Then recession kicked them ALL in the ass and they made SOME adjustments, butt too little, too late - witness the HOWLING (successful) FUR trade tariffs FUR steel, just and, from a LEGAL perspective in terms of interpreation of WTO provions, almost certainly rightly repudiated as illegal under the WTO paradigm.
HRFF can just imagine the caterwauling in the local papers about THAT. Americans are, belatedly, waking up to the horrendous implications of a free trade/WTO regime IF it goes against THEM, which, of course, THEY never REALLY thought would happen, or, if it did, they could, as in the case of steel tariffs, somehow, miraculously, micromanage to their advantage and to HELL with the WTO. Theory and reality often don't mesh very well, wot? Last time HRFF wuz home Wierton steel was hoping FUR some mASSive subsidy FURom the govt (federal, he thinx) FUR an arc furnace they probably should have invested in MUCH sooner. Are we Yanks learning lessons that this brave NEW WORLD dissORDER is bringing into our back yards, with increasing frequency and harshness? Not too well.
Innovation? The last generation in the area to do that were in their prime beFUR WWI. Everyone else has been coasting, since. Seattle reminds HRFF of his home area circa 1960. Storm clouds gathering on the horizon but still prosperous as all get out and not really sensing any mounting danger from gathering trends, still smug in its affluence. The people up the river in Pittsburgh got the message and responded with much success, but even they are in trouble. There are precious few young people to support an aging populace. The young'unz think their FURtunes lie elsewhere and are leaving the area in droves.
Cry, The Beloved Country
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#290

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:44 PM

State Unemployment Fund is Running Out of Money
If you work, your employer pays into a state fund that covers the cost of unemployment benefits in case you lose your job. Now that fund is running out of money at a time when businesses are being asked to pay more.

http://www.kxtv.com/...ull.asp?id=4844


Sure with the sheeple won't start paying attention :(

#291 BAREister

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:46 PM

Remember, nobody is stupid enough to have a running of the bears.

Jorma

ROFLMAZZOFF


We could start by having the Government mandate that we all ride bicycles


uh, think again.

Today HRFF got hisself down to the funky counterKULTURE musical joint on the corner FUR some brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrRRRRUNCH and looked FUR the FURst time at one of the many freebie magz available. One pertained to the jazz scene (Winton Marsalis has shown up next door and Heart, inter alia, plays (rarely) at the joint HRFF was frequenting. Some well known jazz bASS™ player in Seattle just got KILLED riding his bike to wurk. Smacked by a truck.

Good way to shorten your life expectency or stay in one piece in THIS country, anyhoo.

Until Americans throw over their automobiles, thatiz.

HELL will FUReeze™ over FURst™ beFUR™ THAT happens, if the penchant FUR Seattlites for materialistic Thorstein Veblen conspicuous consumption, Bertie Wooster ONE UPsmanship typez who buy the fanciest vehicles you've ever clapped a pair of eyeballz on in amazing nos. are any indicia.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#292 mjkst27

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:48 PM

The people up the river in Pittsburgh got the message and responded with much success, but even they are in trouble. There are precious few young people to support an aging populace. The young'unz think their FURtunes lie elsewhere and are leaving the area in droves.

Yup. I'm one of them few yungunz that managed to find good employment in the Burgh. Most of my childhood mates however, did not and are long gone. :(

I'm hoping for some good deals on real estate in the years to come though B)

#293 Kid

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 12:25 AM

Simple chart for deaf eyes, deaf ears, and deaf minds, as Realist put it, realistically...

....given the doubters the bear camp seems to contain.

Dow chart:

.....cmap projection close enough, where two mathematically derived moving averages cross would mark the half-way point of the move....

.....as far as green fucutures go tonight, they are only of a fucuture nature, if one disregards the rising 3-day cycle, within the context of a descending 8 and 13-day cycle....and if one read my earlier post where $SPX would be a sell-athon between 1002-1005....then green fucutures are nothing more than a gift....to sell into....don't miss it!

....as far as continued silliness by the bull camp.....fugedaboudit...


.....note the green ma is not even a threat to cross the magenta ma....therefore, hasta la vista silly bullies......

.....remember, there's more to the Anals than an awesome FEED analysis....psst...it's the cmaps, follow the cmaps.....follow the cmaps....follow the cmaps....

Don't forget that the boyz are heavily short and added more contracts last week. The hopers can hope all they want, but the fact that the big boyz are heavily short and that insiders have been selling like crazy indicates that the market is toast imo. If you are not short this may be the last opportunity before the thing flushes down the ol turlit

#294 longOnUranus

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 12:25 AM

.....as far as green fucutures go tonight, they are only of a fucuture nature, if one disregards the rising 3-day cycle, within the context of a descending 8 and 13-day cycle....and if one read my earlier post where $SPX would be a sell-athon between 1002-1005....then green fucutures are nothing more than a gift....to sell into....don't miss it!

Roger that. Greenspan's Humphrey Hawkins will be re-named HumptyDumpty He-Haw. There is no way his rose will bloom again; he will be shown for the dour octogenarian he is. The crooks with the tables and water glasses, as well as the viewing millions, will finally see this sham for what it is: a hail-Mary pass to save the American Way.

#295 Hypertiger

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 12:25 AM

slightly dated, but a MUST read... particularly check out the savings carry tax to solved zero bound. this our government. roger arnold's sunday show is now archived. 1% a month - gun sales will skyrocket!

http://www.dallasfed...hot/bd0503.html

Not one mention of the maxout effect... spending is not the problem... borrowing is...

once the system reaches maximum potential that's it. it does not matter what you do... the only way for money, which is debt, to exist to be spent is for it to be created by consumers by borrowing... Even money borrowed at 0% has to be paid back. once a consumers disposable income approches the point that debt servicing consumes above 50% of it the consumer can't borrow enough to keep debt inflation going.

The more a consumer borrows the harder it is for them to keep up with the price inflation until it becomes impossible...maxout

Again the basic mechanics of the system...

Step 1 inflate and/or hyperinflate debt and destroy savings...

You accomplish this by systematically lowering interest rates and reducing or removing barriers to consumer borrowing...

Once the maximum potential is approached or reached self sustaining inflationary consumer debt creation becomes impossible... which leads to...

Step 2 debt deflation and the destruction of equity...

If there is no or not enough debt inflation then interest payments due on previously created debt can only be paid from existing debt in circulation or by the selling of collateral/equity as this process grows exponentially it quickens and finishes off in a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt... which leads to...

Step 3 Bankruptcy of the banks and collapse of the economy...

We visited step 2 at the end of 2002 but all the cuts and actions to date have pulled us back into step 1...

If rates don't significantly drop soon, especially mortgage rates the current basis point induced consumer debt explosion will subside and visible debt deflation will begin and quickly become unstopable... It has only been slowed to this point and it took a chop of 500 basis points to get us here... there are 100 left...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#296 ongoldenstool

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 12:49 AM

what a thread!...no offense but ...test of top, pull back then ramp to tell your grandkids about..back in ought three early summer i think it was, after the winter i had to walk through 10 miles of snow to school, there was a triangle formation beginning and....get higher baby

At bridge benefit in 97 David Bowie comes out for his accoustic set and half way into it rips this haunting China Girl that to this day gives me shivers. Unfortunatly he was followed by billy idol...ouch

:grin: :blink: :ph34r: :shocked

#297 BAREister

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 01:09 AM

no ramp, Champ.

history won't rhyme THIS thyme.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#298 chibear

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 01:37 AM

Bare,

Re your steel story:

I was never madder than on a day in August in 1973, standing at the east end of Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, viewing stacks of oil pipe as far as one could see. The pipe was awaiting resolution of the Alaska Pipeline environmental debate. US oil companies had all told us how wonderful the pipeline would be for the USA. But, every piece of that pipe was plainly stamped Nippon Steel. I never saw that reported anywhere in our press. It was at a time when, as you write, big steel was headed straight into the ground.

#299 ThorAss

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 02:17 AM

Machine Tools,

What a laugh. How could America be a player in the area of machine tools when they cling to an outmoded system of weights and meaures long ago abandoned (or simply never adopted) by the rest of the world?
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#300 Bird D Durr

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Posted 14 July 2003 - 06:22 AM

The people up the river in Pittsburgh got the message and responded with much success, but even they are in trouble. There are precious few young people to support an aging populace. The young'unz think their FURtunes lie elsewhere and are leaving the area in droves.

Yup. I'm one of them few yungunz that managed to find good employment in the Burgh. Most of my childhood mates however, did not and are long gone. :(

I'm hoping for some good deals on real estate in the years to come though B)

Bare................MJ.....................

I'm one of the youth in Pittsburgh........................educated...............and just dying to get out....................

Pittsburgh............

- Worst for being Single.........

- One of the Worst Tax bases around..................

- No growth.....................

- The second eldest county in the US...............primarily poor elderly................the rich live in FL...............or AZ.............



Baaaa...............Baaaaaaaaaaa...............BOOM...............................


If your lucky with employment here...................all appears well............................

But if you're starting out....................FuggadaBoutIt.........................best to look and go elsewhere................

The sunny Southwest raises my ire............................

Is the grass greener?.................Who knows?

Can it be less green than Pittsburgh, PA?...................Not a shot in hell..................


Things are tight everywhere...................Growth is almost non-existent.......................

But if any good ever appears in the economy.................PA will be 48th to 50th in line to receive it..............


- Vegas Bird.................





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