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Mark 2 Market Weak End


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#271 Old Habits

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 09:25 PM

Nice Auntie Septic - you are spot on. Surpluses, deficits don't mean a damn thing, unless they involve your personal finances. As long as the machine keeps running, who gives a rats ass?

B4 - all that nuclear waste sure is making our kids grow taller and stronger isn't it? :blink:

Bare- as usual, you nailed another political piece, good job! I wonder who would like to be the first family to give up energy? We could start by having the Government mandate that we all ride bicycles, while they use their taxpayer funded SUV's and jets.

I wonder what happened to market talk?

Clearly "the best site for people like us" means pessimists. Are we all cynics and pessimists here? This doomsday stuff gets funnier by the day.

In the mean time, bears just keep getting slaughtered. :cry:

#272 mksloth

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 09:26 PM


This timely article is for you:

The White Man's Burden

DBS, much as I like to read Henry Liu's notes and articles, he appears to be suffering from the onset of the same disease that afflicts the chattering class (cf talking heads on radio/tv) all over the world - he sounds as if he is an expert on every subject under the sun, and has a disturbing ability to digress very rapidly. He may well be better off sticking to his original profession - economics.

I agree.

However, some of the posts I read on this board also seem to suffer from the same afflictions as the "chattering classes".

Especially engaging in broad, uniformed, stereotypes about various countries and their peoples.

A significant part of my business is in Asia and my first-hand experiences there are quite different than "leave Japan alone and they dump rocks in the sea and build a sinking airport."

Btw, the airport is Kansai

Kansai 1

Kansai 2

Kansai Airport

I fly there regularly.

DBS, my experience with Japan is non-existent. However, it's a bit better with India.

In any case, wanted to mention that I once saw a program on the genesis of Kansai airport on the Discovery channel. Truly remarkable. What struck me was the hydraulic joists (apologies if I'm butchering the terminology - I tried my best not to learn enough of mech engg in school) that would raise the lower floors up a couple of inches a couple of inches. Amazing stuff they did. And the terminal building is actually pleasant on the eyes, unlike a few others in the western hemisphere.

#273 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:07 PM

US May machine tool demand off 36.4 pct from yr ago


Although my experience nowadays in this field is limited, 5 years ago I wouldn't even consider buying a US-made machine tool, nor would most smaller to midsize machine shops. The Japanese machines were better quality, better design, and just all-around a better value- the Toyota's of the machine world. I wonder if it was a coincidence that Toyoda was named so closely, which also happens to be the machine most of the car parts in Japan are made on.

#274 Jorma

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:15 PM

This is really bad, not a good sign for the bulls!

US May machine tool demand off 36.4 pct from yr ago

U.S. machine tool demand fell in May from the year-ago month, and also fell slightly from April, two industry trade groups said in a joint report on Sunday that underlined the sluggishness of the economy.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=3080944

I've commented on this before. I don't mean to discount the drop but it is the absolute numbers which tell the sad tale.

$140 million, down from $221!!!! America spends more on slurpies every month for cripes sake. (As Doc, a former slurpie schlepper can attest) Either number is so pathetic that comparisons lose all meaning. Noland reports that Countrywide had an average of $3.2 BILLION mortgage aps a DAY in June. Now there is a number.

A machine tool seller, or buyer for that matter, is a pathetic schmuck. A loser. Why make things when financial 'profits' are so easy, so clean, so smart?

This is the denoument of a story 50 years in the making. Not mentioned in the numbers is that most of that tiny $140 million is imported. American machine tool making is dead dead dead. The makers themselves stopped investing and upgrading in the 50s as cost accountants and marketing started to rule American corporations, and the slow death of the industry and American manufacturing followed suit.

I'll grant the percentage drop means something but it doesn't mean something we don't already know.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

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#275 Pee Brain

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:26 PM

slightly dated, but a MUST read... particularly check out the savings carry tax to solved zero bound. this our government. roger arnold's sunday show is now archived. 1% a month - gun sales will skyrocket!

http://www.dallasfed...hot/bd0503.html
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#276 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:29 PM

This is really bad, not a good sign for the bulls!

US May machine tool demand off 36.4 pct from yr ago

U.S. machine tool demand fell in May from the year-ago month, and also fell slightly from April, two industry trade groups said in a joint report on Sunday that underlined the sluggishness of the economy.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=3080944

I've commented on this before. I don't mean to discount the drop but it is the absolute numbers which tell the sad tale.

$140 million, down from $221. America spends more on slurpies every month for cripes sake. (As Doc, a former slurpie schlepper can attest) Either number is so pathetic that comparisons lose all meaning. Noland reports that Countrywide had an average of $3.2 BILLION mortgage aps a DAY in June. Now there is a number.

A machine tool seller, or buyer for that matter, is a pathetic schmuck. A loser. Why make things when financial 'profits' are so easy, so clean, so smart?

This is the denoument of a story 50 years in the making. Not mentioned in the numbers is that most of that tiny $140 million is imported. American machine tool making is dead dead dead. The makers themselves stopped investing and upgrading in the 50s and the slow death of the industry and American manufacturing followed suit.

I'll grant the percentage drop means something but it doesn't mean something we don't already know.


How will the US pay back it's debts if it's manufacturing capability, as measured by machine tools, is in such a decline?

#277 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:34 PM

This is really bad, not a good sign for the bulls!

US May machine tool demand off 36.4 pct from yr ago

U.S. machine tool demand fell in May from the year-ago month, and also fell slightly from April, two industry trade groups said in a joint report on Sunday that underlined the sluggishness of the economy.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=3080944

I've commented on this before. I don't mean to discount the drop but it is the absolute numbers which tell the sad tale.

$140 million, down from $221. America spends more on slurpies every month for cripes sake. (As Doc, a former slurpie schlepper can attest) Either number is so pathetic that comparisons lose all meaning. Noland reports that Countrywide had an average of $3.2 BILLION mortgage aps a DAY in June. Now there is a number.

A machine tool seller, or buyer for that matter, is a pathetic schmuck. A loser. Why make things when financial 'profits' are so easy, so clean, so smart?

This is the denoument of a story 50 years in the making. Not mentioned in the numbers is that most of that tiny $140 million is imported. American machine tool making is dead dead dead. The makers themselves stopped investing and upgrading in the 50s and the slow death of the industry and American manufacturing followed suit.

I'll grant the percentage drop means something but it doesn't mean something we don't already know.

Considering a machine tool may last from 7-25 + years, plus the ability to rework the castings and ways relatively cheaply and then throw a modern computer control to bring it in line with the performance of a new machine, it's no wonder the new market is miniscule. While advances have been made in both bearing technology such as ceramic bearings and more linear torque curve varispeed spindle drives, it pales in comparison to some of the new cutting tool technology.

PS- I agree with you about manufacturing. It's a very tough, highly competitive business if you don't have a specialty that no one else does, especially with a plethora of businesses operating out of their basement. The exceptions were especially large parts or hi-speed machining of aluminun- high rpm, high horsepower spindles, balanced tooling, hi pressure collant pumps- stuff that few firms had. I gave up bidding on smaller aircraft parts. If you won a decent contract, it was usually cuz you screwed up on the bid.

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:41 PM

Jorma & MGS,

When I went in the telecom sector in 1980 I inherited overseeing the tooling projects of our company. What a nightmare delays, shoddy work, inferior material, and way overpriced. When I started my own co. in 1985 I had no intention of ever doing that again. But shortly I was asked by AT&T to make some replacement tools for obsolete phone systems. A friend introduced me to a co in Hong Kong but I was very leery, but after getting quotes in the states of over 4 times the price, I decided to give them a try. To make a long story short the tooling was teriffic, they even started molding the parts when there extruders were available. Over the next 14 years a working friendship was formed and they manu over 175 tools for me. I sold the company 3 years ago and am sitting on my butt because of a no compete clause in the sales agreement. But if I decide to get back into the business I would be contacting my friends in the far east in a heartbeat.

P.S. The telecom sector is still way over capacity so I may stay retired.

#279 Jorma

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:51 PM

The annual running of the bull was today, and per usual the bulls won. Bears shouldn't be too upset about this. Just remember nobody is stupid enough to have a running of the bears.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog

 

The Treasury

could burn down

We jammin still

Full Extreme   Ultimate Rejects


#280 Old Habits

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:52 PM

[quote name='Sphinxter' date='Jul 13 2003, 04:20 PM']Anyway, you can all thank yourselves for this spate of selling and moving.  This damned board somehow convinced my wife and I that owning an overpriced piece of suburban crap was not nearly as important as taking those chips off the table and reapplying them to more productive (and safer) uses.

While I hope not to be proven a fool, I'd rather be wrong and prepared than right and unprepared (but I'd still like to be right).  B)[/quote]
[QUOTE]

At least, it doesn't sound as though you were forced to sell your home. Best of luck to you, unseating your family is a very difficult thing to do. Trust me, I know that from experience.

#281 tpark

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:57 PM

On a somewhat off topic note, where did the term "to fade" come from?

I can see how US manufacturing has become very uncompetitive. Even years ago, we did some work for an electronics manufacturing division in Kokomo, Indiana, and I could see then how the attitude of the dug in, unionized workers was severely imparing the capability of that corporation to be profitable. We needed to have some computer equipment moved from one location to another in the plant. I suggested that I simply carry the stuff from point A to point B on foot, but I couldn't do that, because the union would apparently file a grievance or something. So the equipment was moved half way to some lock up point (apparently the same worker couldn't carry the stuff the whole way) and it took another day to get the equipment to its final destination! I was told by my site contact that they had to do space inventories because they had discovered secret sleeping rooms. Some workers. I remember thinking that if the plant had to compete against any non union shop run by somewhat compentent management, that they would be in serious trouble.

I talked to some of the machine operators and the place was just a job for them. They were smart guys, and had plans of their own to do stuff on their own, but the environment there wasn't really suited for innovation.

#282 brian4

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 10:58 PM

I don't know how many of you have read PB's link to the Dallas Fed-but you should! By the very FACT this crap is posted on a FED website indicates we are not near the cliff but OVER it! What they are saying is " SPEND IT OR LOSE IT" PB's comment rings true doesn't it! Trade Safe!

#283 Old Habits

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:01 PM

[quote name='coboy' date='Jul 13 2003, 08:24 PM'][quote name='summoner' date='Jul 13 2003, 08:14 PM'] Link to Zoran:

http://www.safehaven...071303gayer.pdf

hope all stoolies make some MAJOR COIN this week![/quote]
Can Zoran be the Abelson of E-Waves ? :lol:

According to his count, there is no way we're going up, down here to the oblivion..
Just like last week's count :P[/quote]
[QUOTE]

Well, judging from the futures, he'll have to adjust again next week.

#284 brian4

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:01 PM

TPARK- To Fade comes from that grand old American game called "CRAPS" Trade Safe!

#285 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 13 July 2003 - 11:04 PM

Interesting chart of the price of gold versus dollar based liquidity, link courtesy of Mishedlo at TMF:

http://www.bcaresear...RE-20030623.GIF

I would love to see this chart, or something similar to it, updated frequently by Doc :grin:





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