Unfilled Downside Gap
265 replies to this topic
Posted 11 July 2003 - 02:08 AM
Some of these gold stocks are even more stupid than the Asian internets.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 04:02 AM
Although this is a (primarily) TA site, behind the bearishness are concerns about fundamental problems with the U.S. economy and the stock market, including valuation. If you are bearish on the U.S. economy and the dollar, being bullish on PMs goes hand-in-hand.
And I don't think there is any stoolishly correct position on Treasuries - both bullishness and bearishness is allowed.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 04:04 AM
Regarding decorum, I used to pay little attention to Fleck's "hate mail indicator." After all, there were other indicators like II and the VIX that worked just as well or better. Still, I've been seeing the equivalent of Fleck's hate mail popping up on the boards I read. There have been enough nasty bulls at this point that even a good-faith, honest bullish post can get your head chopped off.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 04:14 AM
3 AM ramp job just wiped out all gains on the futures. Congrats.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 05:50 AM
sorry to see so much acrimony here. seems to happen on the back end of big tops.
on a practical level, one word that really needs to have a concise description posted along with it is 'crash'. crash is probably the single most inflammatory and sensationalist word in the entire market/economy lexicon. if i think we'll have a 'crash', and you don't, what are we talking about? 3 consecutive down days? a 10% drop in a week? circuit breakers flipped? a 100% retrace of the last IT move in a quarter of the time? etc....
coboy, i'm clueless as to the reasoning behind your bullish guess, but i appreciate your willingness to put forth the 'sideways/up a little' case, if for no other reason than that dissent is usually healthy or at least sobering. and i too think inflation is in the cards, although not right away, and not really in much outside commodities.
but people don't suddenly decide to sell because a better alternative exists, like they're browsing frozen pizzas in a supermarket. they decide to sell because everyone else is selling. you can call it a cycle downturn or a corrective wave or a fib retrace or a bradley turn, but the bottom line is that it's sheer migratory behavior that ebbs and flows in myriad overlapping patterns. this is a bear market, and we're miles from the true bottom. and a massive amount of evidence suggests overall that we've started, once again, to ebb.
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 06:35 AM
Since I don't plan on being dead, I sort of care about two years down the road.
Fundamentalists with a futurist bent try to project from current data and trends to see where they want to be when we reach that point two years down the road. Some things take time to put in place ......... not all of life can be "day traded". Real estate is slow and illiquid and debt elimination doesn't happen over night for most. If you purchase an asset looking for capital gains (or wealth preservation), most benefit from longer holding periods through lower tax rates and singular buy-sell transaction costs that could easily offset gains accumulated by frequent trading.
For ease of indentification I would suggest all bull-bears here don a cap with horns sprouting from each side. True hard core bear Stoolies will of course retain their solar-powered tin foil caps with the propellors.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 07:38 AM
GOOD NEWS, GANG, THE U.S. SM TOPPED YESTERDAY
My bank of Cray computers you hear humming in the background just spit out the following report: There is am 87.394876273% chance that we topped yesterday.
Richard's preliminary roadmap for Friday-7/11--posted 7:34 am est-The U.S. SM topped yesterday-lack of put buying confirming factor
Europe & U.S. SM futs are trying to put Japan in the isolation ward.
The U.S. mkt looks like it has become bearish--SM futs were up srtongly about 5am NY time but have faded--showing no fear--Europe is trying to keep up a bluff & hearty exterior--Europe is hanging on to meagre gains, waiting for direction from the U.S.---most likely scenario--we open down--then, trying to regain "that old feeling", the dippers will come in and rally the indexes and THEN we fade and end the day down--possibly 100 or more DOW pts. Like yesterday, all will depend on the put buyers--they must cease & desist for this next bear leg to "blossom
DJIA Index a/c/e (CBOT) Sep 9010 9054 8990 9023 +8
DOW futs were up 41 earlier
Euro SMs were higher earlier
France CAC 40 ^FCHI 7:26am 3,105.47 +7.19 +0.23%
Germany DAX ^GDAXI 7:27am 3,281.96 +12.12 +0.37%
When the SM is bearish stock futs are always up obernite--as if the previous day's decline never happened--the other feature of a bear phase is heavy call buying.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 08:12 AM
The July $7--2004 silver call-possible 20-40-60 to one payoff
Date: 7/11/2003 7:57:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time
The July 2004 $7 silver call--I bought 50 calls about 10 days ago for 5 cents an oz or $250 a copy--they have a full calendar yr-[almost] on them--I like the silver story-as a monetary and deficit play--but mainly I like the LTCM-style leverage-Just $8-$10 silver could yield 20-40-60 to one on one's money-at a cost of $12,500 for 50 contracts[50X5000oz=250,000ozs], I could make $750K on $10 silver-[$3X250K ozs]--I only like "big casino" trades-I'm not interested in scalping $579 & running home to tell Mom. 8$-$10 is not a lunatic target considering silver hit $50 23 yrs ago and was in the $30-$40 range for 2 months of that yr and in the $10-$20 range the other 10 months--& that was with huge supply extant-I can afford the cost of the trade & intend to keep it on for the next few yrs.--as a perpetual hedge'play/lotto ticket. Besides I trade nothing else & it gives me an interest in the mkts. Gang, is there any need to state the obvious: I have nothing to gain if any of you buy one or 1000 of these calls--they do not move becuase of volume--they move when silver moves--oh, sure, if u tried to buy 500 or 1000 lots they might move a few pennies but that is meaningless to me. Look at it this way-if u bought 10 contracts at $2500 & it was a total loss, you can deduct up to $3000 a yr in short term losses--so really u are only risking about $1500--10 calls would be 50,000ozs--if u make $8 silver U got a buck an oz on 50K ozs or $50,000---$1500 to make $50K--pretty goll-danged good leverage & don't let silver go to $10-!!! Then U got $75K for your forshtugganah $1500 spondulaks! Forshtayst? Capiche??, as they say in Yittish!
Posted 11 July 2003 - 12:36 PM
Could we add a board that is more bearish than the new bear board? I'm talking seriously bearish, not wussie bearish. A place where only those who believe that the apocalypse will happen in the next 24 hour are tolerated? Where the posts make references to the Book of Revelation, and angels pouring forth their bowls and saying "it is done"? That would be nice.
Posted 11 July 2003 - 01:34 PM
It exists: Hypertiger's Temple of Doom.
He's kind of "soft on the Apocalypse" though. Thinks we have "7 to 11 months."
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