Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation
72 replies to this topic
Posted 01 December 2002 - 09:51 PM
I've been doing some more number crunching and the more I look at it the more I am convinced beyond any shadow of doubt that if you are a fund trader/investor that right now is the time to go at least 50% into a bear fund, other 50% once price confirms. I still like Prudent Bear fund over the others. We're hitting froth levels I haven't seen since the May 2001 highs.
Posted 01 December 2002 - 09:56 PM
Not much to report here...the usual meandering Monday. Fair bit of green around but the All Ords having probs breaking 3036 resistance. Already had a couple of goes at it so with a bit of luck will retreat. Nikkei not being too encouraging either for the bulls. Golds & oils showing faint signs of enthusiasm...will report back if the earth moves otherwise tomorrow guys....
Posted 01 December 2002 - 09:59 PM
Here's a news item for you_ "The state of New Jersey Pension Fund losses now total 150 BILLION including 6 Billion in the 3rd quarter. New Jersey taxpayers will have to pony up 1 Billion to shore up the fund. The State announced they are sueing Sears, Q-West, EDS and Tyco to recover their losses" ( These look like 4 good short's to me! ) NO FOLKS-it's NOT a new BULL-it is the beggining of the END! Trade Safe!
Posted 01 December 2002 - 10:00 PM
Slinger, I like those trading techniques - I'll have to throw them into my bag of tricks. Seems like you got it nailed. KISS.
I think its best to read the book. Like ewaves, Hurst cycles need to be confirmed by price action.
Brian4, of course where else but "Jeeersey" can you find such blatant gov't corruption. I'm already paying through the nose in my town/county taxes, now this crap. It's just going to get worse for everyone as all forms of gov't are feeling the squeeze and will raise taxes. Well, two can play at creative tax accounting.
Posted 01 December 2002 - 10:41 PM
This time last year:
Steve Leuthold, a Minneapolis stock researcher and money manager, says he thinks the Nasdaq Composite will surge to 2800 by late spring and could be led in part by a pack of what he calls "Internet survivors." His screen for these stocks looks for companies in the industry with at least $80 million in revenues that are cash-flow positive. He says he would buy these only in a basket, which is to say he wouldn't bet on any individual one: eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), CryptoLogic (CRYP:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), F5 Networks (FFIV:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Netegrity (NETE:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), OTG Software (OTGS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Retek (RETK:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Ticketmaster (TMCS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), VeriSign (VRSN:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), MatrixOne (MONE:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) and PEC Solutions (PECS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis).
In part, that's a reflection of how the valuation picture has changed. Steve Leuthold, chairman of the Minneapolis-based Leuthold Group, a fund management firm, says an index of 350 tech stocks he tracks now trades at 33 times earnings - the historical average valuation for that index since 1962. "The bubble," Leuthold declares, "is gone."
Leuthold is a great contra indicator.
Posted 01 December 2002 - 10:54 PM
Piledriver - good rational points on what it takes to start a new bull market. I agree that Prudent Bear is the way to go for those who want to trade once or twice a year. The large BEARX gains the last year and a half show that they are not only good at stock selection, but also have some feel for market timimg. Perhaps they get the Capital Stool too. Anyway, they have done better than I would have on my own.
NJ is in the same situation most large states are facing. It looks like higher taxes will come soon, since most states have severely underestimated tax receipts for this fiscal year. Higher state taxes are indirectly subsidized through the tax code (ie Form 1040, Schedule A) so Uncle Sam will help the states in their misery. I am already looking for a $250 billion federal deficit this year - excluding major war/terrorist scenarios.
Posted 01 December 2002 - 11:31 PM
BEARX has held its NAV well during the rebound; probably due to gold finding a base over $300. They were long term/long on gold years ago; I bought in circa the $4 range a few years back, but have not held it as I should have. It is a good vehicle to short the market and long gold, although it is not nearly as leveraged (per their prospectus) as other short funds.
I use 100% leverage (options) during topping times, such as we are approaching, if not already "in". I have actually sold some physical gold recently (bought several years ago), putting this cash into a "short interest war chest", as I think we'll see an equities decline in advance of a sustained gold rally. The strategy has worked well since Y2K; will not work well if I load up/front-run below the final top, or if this is indeed a "bull market" now. Tactics have limits.
Per the wisdom of PileDriver, we are nowhere near a "bull market"; we are in the midst, however, of a "bull-sh*t market", with it's attendant risks. BEARX (or the Safe Harbour Fund) is a safe but unleveraged place to await the turn.
Posted 02 December 2002 - 12:49 AM
"have to say its shaping up to be a Japanese scenario more and more"
We could only hope so. Unfortunately Japanese are genuinely rich and successful people and Americans by and large are just plain old deadbeats constantly manipulating pieces of paper in hopes the inevitable can be put off a little longer.
Watch out for a head fake on this next drop. It'll trap the remaining Bears and slaugter 'em.
Then the real drop will come starting somewhere in Feb 03.
And as for this business of the market bottoming in 2018 that's nonsense. The pace of investing and flow of information is about 5 times as fast as it was in the 1930's.
We'll see THE BOTTOM in less than 2 years from now.
Dow ---- 1500, SP 150, NAZ 0 (ZERO in english)
Posted 02 December 2002 - 02:29 AM
Despite the pace of investing and the flow of information the Japanese stockmarket is flirting with 19 year lows. Technology hasn't made the slightest difference in that respect. In fact I've read that Japanese citizens regard their stockmarket as a casino run by charlatans and thieves. It's only a tiny percentage that invest now compared to the heady days in the 80s. Additionally owners of real estate are paying mortgages on residences that have a market value of half what they originally paid so you can see how much further this has to run.
A lot of the Japanese drama is because of intervention by their government and that is EXACTLY what the Fed seemingly are about to do in the US. Instead of just letting the whole thing drop out of the sky in 2000 they have created an enormous problem with all this excess credit and propose more of the same as far as I can see, so the longer they manipulate, prop, bail out and procrastinate the longer it will take for the mess to get sorted. I'd say it will be a lot longer than 2 years. Could be a couple of minibulls in the meantime but I think it will be a traders' world not an investing one for many years to come. In fact it will possibly be like Japan where investors prefer to keep their money in a bank account earning a pittance in interest rather than letting it anywhere near the stockmarket. When that happens in the US we can talk about bottoms....
Posted 02 December 2002 - 05:20 AM
b4, got any more info or a link on this? went to cnn.com and did some searching and this item seems to have........disappeared. trolling google with same result. thx.
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 02 December 2002 - 06:21 AM
Pension plan underfunding has been an issue of late, with pension investments taking severe blows in this Great Bear market but the sleeper issue and possibly a much more expensive one is increasing medical expenses for corpses like the automakers and others with medical benefits to continuously fund at ever increasing expense, as demanded by shareholders of the health companies and Nasdquack med companies pricing regimes. The whole friggin system will implode! Companies will no longer offer medical benefits at ever increasing rates until very few have any employer coverage. I don't even want to guess at what insurance premiums will be over a few years time for individuals trying to afford coverage for their families. As the the Great Bear continues and declines and grinds for 15 years eventually some doctors will be back to the age old barter system. Chickens or whatever for a doctor's visit in an emergency.
An article depicting Automaker's woes
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 02 December 2002 - 06:57 PM
the newest news on this is the state's AG has defined the losses due to economic weakness, and the losses due to the um.. (legal term here) of the company that caused the losses. For example, S had a problem with an executive that had not stated the true value of the credit books.
Not disagreeing with you, just new info today.
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