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Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation


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#31 Goldmember

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 12:46 PM

Krudlow and Creamer last night are even saying the rally of late is tired and advocate rotating out of tech and telecom into consumer staples. Creamer, speaking through Krudlow, no doubt to enable Creamer to keep selling his tech and telecom without restrictions on such from opening HIS mouth, likes Kellog and General Mills.

If that isn't a Crapvision way of saying THE RALLY IS OVER then I don't know what is. Wednesday's pop AND THE REST OF THE SHORTENED WEEK, was the distribution period for the likes of GS et al, and while half of Stoolville was busy crapping their pants, THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN SHORTING THE PISS OUT OF THIS THING!!!!!! How would YOU feel if Creamer shorted the piss out of this POS market AND YOU DIDN'T!!!! Ooops, what am I saying!!!!! Now I am confused!!! BUT STILL HEAVILY SHORT!!!! :lol:
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#32 PileDriver

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 02:22 PM

...and there are plenty of other signs of a major top forming right now, just waiting for price to confirm then I'm all over this thing like a cheap suit.

I know its a holiday weekend but even beforehand I've noticed a sizeable reduction in post activity in Stoolville, yet another sign that this "idiot's rally" is about over and much fecal matter is about to hit the proverbial fan.

SPLAT!

#33 Drano

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 03:02 PM

Finally found the correct thread to post this -- drowning in board and thread inflation right now --

From L.A. Times syndicate:
"San Francisco Chronicle columnist Scott Ostler theorized that Jesus would tool around in a vintage Plymouth because 'the Bible says God drove Adam and Eve out of the Garden of Eden in a Fury.'

For the rest of the article, go to Yobob's forum:
http://www.capitalst...f=10&t=34&st=0
Of course I'm caustic!

#34 sniff

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 03:19 PM

slinger,.... The only thing I have left from Datek is...... 3 very expensive baseball caps.

I believe there are a couple pieces of the puzzle that are being overlooked for the health of the economy.

$RLX...... retail, when are consumers going to quit charging for stuff they don't need, or max out their VISA cards. Watch the chart.

$ BKX.... banks, when are businesses going to borrow and take advantange of the rate cuts? ho, ho, ho Watch the chart.

maybe nothing will change (unlikely) , but if $BKX does not break out soon............ this market is going to die...... $RLX consumers already have one foot in the grave....

Everyone is doing a great job on this board,... I check in occasionally
with the big time, high priced Guru sites.

1/2 think the market is going up
1/2 think the market is going down
1/2 do not know what to think

only 1/2 are correct , and all the Stoolie know..............

#35 brian4

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 04:53 PM

You know like Goldmember, Butt and a few others I am short-but although I expect a pull back-I doubt it will be to NEW LOWS-something on the order of 30 t0 40% retrace-this rally as Doc said a while back has gone on to damn long and now the setup for a steep fall is not there. I see a dump until just before Xmas and then a rally into yr end and the first week in January probably back to where we are now-by that time we are in the dead of winter, retail sales in January always suck and the idiot prince and merlin will be bombing hell out of Iraq-that to me is when the rubber meets the road! Having said this-any terror act on the home front and she sinks immediately without a bubble-for even a 40% retrace before Xmas this thing has to go down NOW and Hard-if and when we hit the 40% retrace mark-I'll be hedging. Trade safe!

#36 PileDriver

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 07:35 PM

after perhaps a few more pathetic probes up early next week the next major move is down. Don't know exactly how it will unfold but one thing for sure upside is very limited right now.

#37 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 07:49 PM

Yep, now that Barron's has someone on there declaring a new bull market - the top is officially "in". But there are always stocks going up, maybe in Japan or something. :P

#38 PileDriver

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 07:55 PM

what a joke. Where was the fear at the Oct 9 low? This is (was) nothing more than short covering rally. I can tell by what moved and what didn't move during it. Trash and short candidates went up BIGTIME. Stocks with modest P/E and very strong dividend and earnings yields actually went south.

The reason it was so strong was b/c there were alot of newbie bear cubs shorting the market since the July plunge. Hopefully they learned their lesson and are out of the way.

If this doesn't start heading down seriously next week then we are talking serious intervention and I will hang it up.

#39 buttugly

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 08:33 PM

AussieBear: I was just in Japan and I met this
Aussie hedge manager - Kerr Neilson -
(he is originally Rhodesian) - but apparently he
is very pretty well regarded/known in Australia - runs a fund called Platinum?
Anyway he had some interesting
things to say and knew some New Yorkers I know - so I checked the web - seems like he is pretty reputable.

Anyway to cut a long story - he thinks the US is in deep stool. His fund is majorly underweight US. Although many of the stocks he is short aren't tech. One interesting stock he discussed was Colgate.

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 08:39 PM

According to Dec edition http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm serious intervention is what we're going to get..

"We don't need to be hit over the head to realize that the Fed now intends to embark on probably one of the greatest reflationary efforts of recent US financial history. The gauntlet has been thrown down. Short sellers, hedgies, foreign holders of US dollar denominated assets and conservatively diligent Treasury and CD savers in this country, you have been warned, and warned big. "

Although Contrary Investor are by no means convinced that the Fed will be successful they do warn there could be extreme volatility which is fine if one is prepared to trade short term and each way.

As a full time trader I'll just go with the flow but could be tough for those who work full time and trade part time. Might be one of those times coming up where you need to keep your eyes on the screen. No saying that the Aussie market will play the volatility game either, just have to see how it pans out.

#41 brian4

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 08:42 PM

Check this OUT!-CNN is reporting on their main page (under U.S.-lower left hand side) a link to a story that the opening DATA yesterday reported by the NYSE was in correct and that INCORRECT data was picked up by most quote carriers including CNN. It seems prices for GE,AOL,DIS and HD were drastically different at the open than what THEY were actually trading for. Piledriver there is the blatant intervention we have come to expect. Have a read-cnn.com- Trade Safe!

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 08:55 PM

Thanks for that info Buttugly...haven't actually heard of the fund but I'll look into it..

I guess we all think the US economy is up the proverbial creek but just seems to hang in, more lives than a cat.. have to say its shaping up to be a Japanese scenario more and more..

Quote from Doug Noland this week which seems to echo Contrary Investor:

"The Credit system went to the edge and has since recoiled. The overwhelming selling afflicting the corporate bond market has receded, and perhaps a sustainable period of accumulation has commenced. For now, pressure has reversed, with those short corporate bonds, stocks, and on the wrong side of sinking Credit default swap prices feeling the heat."

#43 PileDriver

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 09:45 PM

once again, another excellent take on the market:

http://www.aegeancap...Swenlin/pg1.htm

He (and Jim Puplava) see last Wed as a major intervention day (listen to Carl's comment @ 14:05).

#44 slinger

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Posted 30 November 2002 - 11:47 PM

Bearish E-Wave Outlook

Semi-bearish, covered his butt E-Wave Outlook

I enjoy the TA from these E-Wave analyses, but it seems they never know what wave they are on until after the fact. :unsure: Anyway, they were both a good read. Luckily, I'm a trader, so I can ride either wave that comes.

It would be nice to see the Bradley turn and upcoming fibo dates have some influence, though. :P

#45 torah man

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Posted 01 December 2002 - 01:17 AM

another slow weekend on the stool wire. the holiday has everyone slowed way down.

lots of stuff happening on the lob threads on both new and newer sites. i can't wait till there is only one site to check the threads on, i am definitely feeling overloaded.

be well and i will be back on sunday to check on the threads.





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