Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation
72 replies to this topic
Posted 29 November 2002 - 12:30 AM
You know in listening to Ass master and others there has been quite a conversion on the road to Damascus-which is fine with me - too many Bears spoil the broth! We are on the cusp of a huge DOWN move-very few Bears are in the market and a lot of would be Bears have folded their tents and left. Yep-I'll fade you Ass master-this is and was a wimpy little rally-yet it took out a lot of Bears who SHOULD know better-all the more for Mercy, Pile, Lightening, Aussie and Butt and I. Butt good on ya shorting MXIM-keep it on a short leash. Doc ranks rite up there with Walter Bressert on cycles. Yet a lot of you don't listen-PITY! Trade safe!
Posted 29 November 2002 - 12:34 AM
You're right, Torah Man.
Globex trading hours
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 29 November 2002 - 01:00 AM
MH-you looked better as R2D2-your current incarnation is going to scare the cildren!
Posted 29 November 2002 - 03:45 AM
Good plan brian4.
Posted 29 November 2002 - 08:42 AM
That's the Machinehead I know and love. R2D2 looked like a "Made in China" knockoff of Machinehead.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 29 November 2002 - 12:30 PM
Please add two loose screws to either MH avatar!!!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 29 November 2002 - 04:43 PM
when this rally finally begins its "correction" as so many out there will be calling it when it happens we're going to be laughing our asses off b/c its not going to be just a "correction" to an "on going 'new' bull market" but the next leg of collapse.
Can you say "lack up support" ?
Posted 29 November 2002 - 05:23 PM
8 Week winning streak... Can they make it 9? Well they better make it infinity... The longer they float this mess the bigger the splat. Eventually they will run out of "free" money (individual investors/suckers) and the FED will have to buy it all and that will be spotted... And what are the chances of a rapid super dupa recovery in 2003? 0%.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 30 November 2002 - 01:44 AM
In looking over the charts of the last few big rallies (and subsequent failures), it seems that the highest risk/reward opportunity to short the indeces is to wait for the price, 50 dma, and 200 dma to meet - then wait for price to fail backtest at ma50 when 50 dma below 200 dma, which usually happens well after (weeks/months) the top is in and then you have months to ride the downtrend to riches.
As Piledriver (or someone) said, 20% of stocks are rising even in a bear market. So instead of chasing particular hot stocks, I will look for low-risk opportunities to jump on stocks which are beginning trends up. And begin buying index leap puts if I can figure out how (just got approved for put/call buying yesterday).
Anyway, let them come to you. Don't chase rockets or try to catch them at the tip-top. Don't chase falling knives or try to catch them at the exact low.
Since I know you cannot wait to extract some coin on the short side, possible short candidates now include ASML, KLAC, LRCX, SIVB, TQNT, TSCM. Look 'em over and see what you think.
Posted 30 November 2002 - 02:50 AM
Just wanna say hi , Dec 3rd or 4th and Dec 10th or 12th are inportant Fib dates, the next two weeks should be very interesting !!!!! Love you Guys keep up the good work!!!! Nice new board DOC.very easy to get around.
Posted 30 November 2002 - 11:12 AM
Options are great if you can figure out how to minimize commissions. The cheapest broker for options that I have found is here. At only $1 a contract for an unlimited number of contracts, I haven't found a broker that beats that price. Datek charges $1.25 per contract, but with also a $9.95 surcharge per trade added on. Optionexpress charges $1.50 per contract, but with a $14.95 minimum per trade.
To compare those 3, if you wanted to trade 20 contracts at 1.00 premium, you would pay: 20 x 1.00 x 1.00 = $20 per turn at interactivebrokers. At Datek, that same trade would cost 20 x 1.00 x 1.25 + 9.95 = $34.95 per turn. At Optionexpress, that trade would cost 20 x 1.00 x 1.50 = $30 per turn. So the full trade would cost you $40 at IB, $69.90 at Datek, and $60 at Optionexpress.
Since 20 x 1.00 x 100 shares per contract = $2000 invested, your commission percentages are: 40/2000 = 2% at IB, 69.90/2000 = 3.495% at Datek, and 60/2000 = 3% at optionexpress.
That doesn't seem like too much of a difference in commissions, but if you traded the .50 contracts with 40 contracts, total commissions would be 4% at IB, 5.99% at Datek, and 6% at optionexpress. Commissions will magnify the more trades you do.
Datek also limits you to a maximum 200 contracts per trade. No limit at IB or optionexpress.
Hope this helps. Just my opinion, by the way.
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