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Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation


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#1 torah man

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 10:00 AM

Lets start a new mark to market thread to help everyone find the coffee shop.

if you are posting here during the day, it is definitely time for you to examine your priorities.

I am off now to take the family to my mothers house. dinner for 28 and whoever else shows up.

have a great holiday. i will check back when the futures open.

#2 swingbear

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 11:29 AM

Turkey Day "first post" test -- cooking not started yet -- cook is still in bed -- just a bit of kids video-gaming and me surfing.

Thoroughly addicted to MTM board, can't wait for Mark to return!

#3 torah man

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 12:46 PM

well i just carved the turkey and put it in the crock pot to take to my mother's house. my mother is not keeping or serving kosher so my family has to bring our own.

as soon as my wife returns from here free time and space at starbucks, we will pack the car and be off.

no stock, bonds, or other money making conversations till futures open, it is looking good so far.

great holidays.

#4 PileDriver

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 01:48 PM

gobble, gobble...

I guess the question is is tommorrow the last up day, or someday early next week. After that its major downdraft with only slight hickups (Christmas?) until March/April for sure.

VectorVest market indicators are all hitting extremes I haven't seen since Jan 2002 and May 22, 2001. They rarely if ever stay there for more than a day or two then the market turns south and doesn't look back. Ewaves appear at or very near completion, cycles and Bradley model too, tons of Fib dates (11/26, 12/4, 12/10)

Turkey today, roast pig next week/month.

#5 Guest_GTNWORSE_*

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 02:27 PM

Hey Guys,
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone.

Have not posted in a couple of days, but have been lurking at the end of the day to read up. Many of you seem very quick to dismiss yesterdays rally. Let me remind you that volume was healthy and, in case you had not noticed, it was another 90% up volume day.
Again, I bring this up not because I'm bullish or bearish. All I am holding now is a moderate position in the Strong short term high yield bond fund.
I bring it up because, whether you like it or not, this rally could actually evolve into a cyclical bull market. Since the purpose of gambling in this deal is to make money I, for one, would hate like hell to have a closed mind to that possibility.
Please don't post back at me with all the fundamentals that prove this would be impossible. We all know what they are and how seemingly ridiculous a new bull market launching from these valuations would be.
I just want to point out that the higher this thing goes the more believers it recruits. The potential believers have big money sitting in money market funds earning shit. Yours truly is one of them.

#6 brian4

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 03:04 PM

Happy Thanksgiving all- Torah-the futures are open now-Globex goes all day and nite! Something is brewing the dollar is getting smoked and gold is up $1.60 from the close yesterday-could be the terror problems-but my gut is telling me something else! Trade safe-eat hearty!

#7 DrStool

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 03:39 PM

Any meaningful movement of money out of money market funds will crash the financial system. Furthermore, money market rates have been negative real for almost a year and there have been no meaningful outflows. Most of it is already committed, temporarily parked money.

Chart and more discussion

Yesterday was the lightest volume day in the last seven trading days. Total volume was more than 20% below the 50 day average. Not that it matters. Moderate volume is meaningless. Furthermore it was not quite a 90% volume up day, and even if it were, what does that mean? That it was a buying panic. Buying panics also happen at tops. Every top in this bear market has been preceded by one. Desmond's findings about major bottoms included several components. 90-% up volume was only one. Bull markets were preceded by a series of 90% down volume, and price down days. This market never met that condition.

Rehashing of all Maria Fartaroma's bull arguments, half truths, and statements of opinion based on misinformation are not a substitute for facts and reasoned judgement. If you want to preach disinformation, go play on Yahoo or Raging Bull.

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#8 Guest_Guest_*

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 05:25 PM

Stool, there ought to be some tolerance FUR heresy around here. Not much, butt some!!!

Yes, it is conceivable that this market could morph into a new bull. Just BAREly, butt, it's conceivable. FUR the reason you mention? Maybe SNOT that, butt there's always:

Irrationality or 'animal spirits'. Getting THOSE jazzed is the intent of Da Boyz.

And, yes, HRFF thinx there are still a lot of "show me" types with buying power on the sidelines. How MUCH buying power remains to be seen, however. Whether it's enough to overcome the SELLING power is being tested, now. (See HRFF's post about Thanksgiving and the R's which notes that the breakout hASSNOT ™ thus FUR, been a true breakout - one that didn't look back, gained speed and kept on going - butt rather a faltering afFUR).

We can't dismiss his idea out-of-hand, Stool, FUR Charles Biederman? noted, quoted in a post on anUDDER thread, that the flow into equity mutual funds had REVERSED and now was POSITIVE.

THIS, in HRFF's opinion, is A major, perhaps THE major objective of this rally. It hASS succeeded, perhaps only temporarily.

We'll see if there's an "invisible FURce" ™ We'll c if there's all this buying power YET to be deployed.

Butt we have to get thru major resistance decisively, and in a way that gathers momentum; SNOT in a way we've done, thus FUR, at least the NASTY excluded. That's a giant casino. Ass Stool says, the REAL $ is in the S&P. THAT's the sandbox the BIG BOYS play in.

So your notion, while heretical, is, perhaps, about to be meaningfully tested.

HRFF doesn't think it's going to happen, that we stall out around here, that somehow, some way things will go haywire, and Washington and Wall St will be denied their wish, which, as Dick Young says, is to make things seem alright again. Why, Young sounds like WEISS!!!

But don't pay attention to what HRFF thinx, of late!

#9 Goldmember

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 05:26 PM

Does this look like a new cyclical bull market? Maybe if you turned it upside down!


Posted Image


Image from here
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#10 buttugly

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 05:50 PM

http://www.cross-cur....net/weekly.htm

Mutual funds are running on empty
- they are throwing everything
at the year end numbers.
Al Greenspan is almost out of ammo.
The MFs are going to throw everything at the tape
right up until 12/31. I think they might just pull it off.

But don't be fooled 2003 this market is toast.

Anyway "Happy Thanksgiving" all.

#11 Hypertiger

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 07:43 PM

I figure Friday will be up a little bit more or flat to get the 8 week winning streak under their belt then monday can be a down day no problem after that...

So far my milking theory is holding but the making it to Christmas deal is not looking good because there are too many all ready in to sustain the upward movement and once this thing breaks down it should turn into a race to the bottom.

But just see what happems tomorrow,

Goldmember

Nice chart but I think the banking system will start to collapse before we reach the bottom of it.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#12 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 11:10 PM

One thing I would like to know. Why, according to Prechter, are we always right at the edge of 3 of 3 down? Is it physically possible to always be at the edge of a collapse? Could we not be at the middle of 2 up before 3 down? Sheesh! Those guys.

I was sure we were going to collapse in Oct. 87, Oct. 98, Oct. 2000, and now. I fully expected a bomb, airplane, ship, whatever to blow up the TransAmerica building in SF last week.

One thing I have learned, is to fade my doomsday paranoia. Maybe this time is really "the big one", but every other time it has paid to be on the other side. Great Depression of 1990, new Prechter book out again. This has all the earmarks of another one, except we have real terrorists out there.

Personally, I am going to try to ride the intermediate term trends, buy puts at the top of the trading range if it goes up too high and load up long on the bottoms.

Being bearish is not usually profitable. Try to keep an open mind, even though you know everyone one of those bastards is out to get you. And remember they will also use your own (correct and righteous) bearishness against you! If that isn't evil, I don't know what is.

If you are sure you know what is going to happen, and there are a lot of people just like you who are convinced of the same thing AND you are bearish, then Uncle Al will use that against you.

Think market neutral. The Fed is pumping like it's 1998 LTCM, 1999 Y2K, and those were NOTHING compared to this. This is for all the marbles. You may win in the end, but they will make you PAY in the short run if you are not very agile and intellectually "supple". :ph34r:

Anyway, I'm feeling bullish. So that should be a sign to fade me with impunity and get ready to short with abandon.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

#13

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 11:53 PM

Hey where is everybody...lying around with tums stuffed full of turkey no doubt while the rest of us slave over our hot pcs..

The bulls have desperately tried to keep the momentum from yesterday going but making a bit of a dog's breakfast of it. Mixed trading, some up, some down but basically not going anywhere fast. Gold stocks showing a tinge of green for a change. I guess we won't see much action out of you guys tonight either, it being a half day and all. Ah well here's to next week....cheers..

#14 Hypertiger

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Posted 28 November 2002 - 11:59 PM

in 87 I could care less, in 98 same, in 2000 I laughed, and in 2002 I became interested...

In 2003 I will watch the world crumble... It's the end of the line. When "they" start saying they will run the presses 24/7 that always is the "sign" of the beginning of the end...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#15 torah man

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Posted 29 November 2002 - 12:03 AM

Happy Thanksgiving all- Torah-the futures are open now-Globex goes all day and nite! Something is brewing the dollar is getting smoked and gold is up $1.60 from the close yesterday-could be the terror problems-but my gut is telling me something else! Trade safe-eat hearty!

i always thought that the futures started at 630pm. when i go to:
http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/ it always shows 630pm. on sunday night it was 630pm. i never watched during a holiday before.

anyway, it loods flat at this point but that matches people sleeping off a large turkey meal.

the morning will say for sure.





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