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#61 wndysrf

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:42 PM

For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

Here's his YTD track record. Up about 300% so far this year:

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#62 FeedFool

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:43 PM

Click Here for the link

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#63 rott

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:01 PM

Great article

http://www.financial...s/2003/0702.htm

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:10 PM

For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

Here's his YTD track record.  Up about 300% so far this year:

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

Tomorrow is 4th of July so here's a little present B)

Tom O-Brien is:

Long:

GFI (Goldfields) at $11.85 or better. The first price point is $13.00.

HMY (Harmony Gold) at $13.80 or better. The first price point is $16.15.

Short:

LOW (Lowe’s) at $45.20 or better. It wants to retest the $38.20 mark.

IBM at $84.10 or better. It wants to trade down to the $79.00 mark.

Option Trading

July 50 puts on Low (LOWSJ) at $5.00 or better. It wants to trade down to the $38.00.

July 90 puts (IBMSR) on IBM at $6.70 or better. It wants to trade down to the $79.00 mark.


#65 DICK BUTTkus

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:18 PM

If the consumers are maxed out but need more borrowing to pay the compound interest


They can't even pay back the principal, let alone the compound interest.

The key is the debt sponge consumer, when they are full they will be wrung out... some will be recycled and some will be thrown out. thats the ugly part that is coming very soon...


Consumer debt is likely already maxed out. What isn't maxed out is corporate and government debt. Corporate debt has to be repaid or dissolved through bankruptcy and thus has real limits. Of course there's always the option of government bailout/covert nationalization of industry. As for government debt . . . as long as the Fed is able to buy it, there is no theoretical limit. There may be well-placed doubts about the governent's ability to stimulate productive economic activity through deficit spending, but we should not doubt that the government can dole out the dough, and it doesn't need helicopters or dump trucks to do it. It can fund social programs, build up national defense & domestic "security," create public works projects, bail out bankrupt companies & states, etc. All those activities either create or save jobs. The Fed can feed it the money -- created out of thin air in return for worthless IOUs -- and will ultimately have to because no one of sound mind is going to buy those notes.

What that leads to, however, is basically a centralized command-and-control economy. The government (i.e. those who control the government) decides what gets produced and how it gets allocated. Sound familiar?

When the debt sponges soak up all they can, thats it, game over... this process has been going on for 23 years...  Either a miracle will show up or it won't...


Some hope for the second coming . . .

Some look to the stars . . .

Some look at history and conclude that it's deja vu all over again: the rise and predictable fall of another civilization. Generally, though, it takes quite a bit longer than 25 years to fall from the apex of world power to absolute ruin. The U. S. stills carries the biggest military sticks, by far, and with that power comes the possibility of stretching things out a ways. We may have an Argentinian-like overspending habit, but our options for maintaining that habit seem to be more open-ended IMHO. We'll still die from the addiction, but not without first sucking the life out of others.

Hyper, if you still hold to the 7-11 month death spiral, I would appreciate a point-on-point rebuttal instead of another run through the fractional reserve banking/inflate or die scenario. I'd just like to know why you think the reigning superstructure of our society won't be propped up beyond that time frame by the "unconventional means" mentioned above .

#66 Wahoo

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:20 PM

For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

Here's his YTD track record. Up about 300% so far this year:

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

He isn't bad, but he is not that good.

You cannot add percentages together, ie down 47% in one month followed by 47% in another is not 0.

Also assumes you invest equal amount in stock and index trades.

Assuming you equal weight all trades (split an account across trade), I get a quick 38% on the year, likely less unless you are doing something like buying 10k of calls and equity (not likely). Major blow was the one month he had a 47% loss. That does not turn a 219% to 171%, that wipes out half the account.

Good trader though, even better marketer.

#67 mjkst27

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:32 PM

M2M poll question: in which fiscal year will the US Federal Gubbamint run it's very first $1 Trillion dollar budget deficit?:

2004?
2005?
2006?
other year?
never?

and why...........my money is on 2004.....tax revenues will be through the floor (and through the basement and about 10 feet underground) by then. Still trying to figure out who's going to buy all the new Treasury toilet paper, and at what interest rates.

#68 Fukui-san

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:35 PM

For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

Here's his YTD track record.  Up about 300% so far this year:

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

He isn't bad, but he is not that good.

You cannot add percentages together, ie down 47% in one month followed by 47% in another is not 0.

Also assumes you invest equal amount in stock and index trades.

Assuming you equal weight all trades (split an account across trade), I get a quick 38% on the year, likely less unless you are doing something like buying 10k of calls and equity (not likely). Major blow was the one month he had a 47% loss. That does not turn a 219% to 171%, that wipes out half the account.

Good trader though, even better marketer.

Anyone that could make 300% on their investments year after year, ie., geometric growth, would end up owning the entire market . . and the rest of the world.
A Shrug of the Shoulders.

We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.

An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.

#69 purdymouth

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:38 PM

M2M poll question: in which fiscal year will the US Federal Gubbamint run it's very first $1 Trillion dollar budget deficit?:

2004?
2005?
2006?
other year?
never?

and why...........my money is on 2004.....tax revenues will be through the floor (and through the basement and about 10 feet underground) by then. Still trying to figure out who's going to buy all the new Treasury toilet paper, and at what interest rates.

2004

#70 mjkst27

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:40 PM



They can't even pay back the principal, let alone the compound interest.



Consumer debt is likely already maxed out. What isn't maxed out is corporate and government debt. Corporate debt has to be repaid or dissolved through bankruptcy and thus has real limits. Of course there's always the option of government bailout/covert nationalization of industry. As for government debt . . . as long as the Fed is able to buy it, there is no theoretical limit. There may be well-placed doubts about the governent's ability to stimulate productive economic activity through deficit spending, but we should not doubt that the government can dole out the dough, and it doesn't need helicopters or dump trucks to do it. It can fund social programs, build up national defense & domestic "security," create public works projects, bail out bankrupt companies & states, etc. All those activities either create or save jobs. The Fed can feed it the money -- created out of thin air in return for worthless IOUs -- and will ultimately have to because no one of sound mind is going to buy those notes.

What that leads to, however, is basically a centralized command-and-control economy. The government (i.e. those who control the government) decides what gets produced and how it gets allocated. Sound familiar?



Some hope for the second coming . . .

Some look to the stars . . .

Some look at history and conclude that it's deja vu all over again: the rise and predictable fall of another civilization. Generally, though, it takes quite a bit longer than 25 years to fall from the apex of world power to absolute ruin. The U. S. stills carries the biggest military sticks, by far, and with that power comes the possibility of stretching things out a ways. We may have an Argentinian-like overspending habit, but our options for maintaining that habit seem to be more open-ended IMHO. We'll still die from the addiction, but not without first sucking the life out of others.

Hyper, if you still hold to the 7-11 month death spiral, I would appreciate a point-on-point rebuttal instead of another run through the fractional reserve banking/inflate or die scenario. I'd just like to know why you think the reigning superstructure of our society won't be propped up beyond that time frame by the "unconventional means" mentioned above .

...and what you also get is a worthless currency...and since ours already contains zero precious metals...well....let's say collapse is already "enabled" and could occur at any time once sufficient confident sentiment is lost.

I'm halfway through Richard Duncan's book The Dollar Crisis...very neat clean and concise, well stocked with data tables and graphs....I really wish this book would have been available when I first started my "quest" of bearishness. It's all neatly documented in the book. Doug Noland's and Stephen Roach's analysis will mean that much more to me now that I have Duncan's framework on which to view it. Duncan helped me see just how f'd up the world monetary system (Dollar reserve system) is and has been for the last 30 years, from the highest macro-level perch.

Anyway, Duncan sees it like you do Dick BUTTkus....he thinks that US Government deficit spending could keep the US economy out of depression by making up enough of the difference from the collapse of the consumer and business spending. Emphasis on "could". He acknowledges that there is a boundary to the effectiveness of government deficit spending, and that the US might get there pretty fast. It is definitely a card that will be played, and we need to be aware of it.

#71 soup

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:47 PM

away from the office, anyone have the settlement price for sep spoos? Thanks
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#72 GregFokker

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:50 PM

982.25 ES3U

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#73 BAREister

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:51 PM

Well, ass nice ass it would b to have Hyper's blow-by-blow, it may SNOT b necessary.

Why?

Well, cuz rising rates and/or increasing recession may trigger the DERIVATIVE debacle.

Who SEZSEW?

Why the ONE AND ONLY, the ORIGINAL DR GLOOM hisself Henry the K assin Kaufman, economista supremo

What ISNOT™ only breathtaking is the extent of the leveraging butt(_)_) its inherent instability.

We only need to move PARTIALLY in Hyper's direction to potentially trigger cascading catcysmic events whose origins and dimensions we dimly, if at all, perceive now.

And HRFF guesses that is what is going to happen. It will be some Sigma 10 like afFUR, roaring in out of the wild blue yonder just like those two deadly aircraft on 9-11 when skies appear sunniest.

Wyndy's fretting SNOTwithstanding

Which is why HRFF hASS remained and will remain short. He didn't larn hisself a thaaaang boud MURPHY'S lawr in lawr skool, 'cept at exam time, of course! lolol. BUTT(_)_) he has great faith in it now. It's ONE law this conservative SUPREME COURT cannot void/vacate. And Congress did a whole lot to make sure it comes to pASS.

.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#74 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:56 PM

For those who doubt the french fry story, here is the ebay auction:

http://cgi.ebay.com/...3&category=1469

Here is a copy cat trying to get in on the action:

http://cgi.ebay.com/...1&category=1469

#75 DICK BUTTkus

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 05:58 PM

Maybe so, BAREister, but if the cataclysm is imminent I would think it ill-advised to have one's wherewithal tied up on either side of the market, directly or indirectly. You may never see it again.





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