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#46 Sphinxter

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 03:44 PM

one final thought before I go into seclusion †:lol:

"When does a light bulb burn brightest?"

Right before it DIES! :o

Posted Image

Unbeknownst to most, I served on the Warren commission.

I can state, unequivocally, that the lightbulb in this picture has been shot with a bullet that traverses from left to right.

#47 wndysrf

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 03:54 PM

Jobless Recovery.

What good is a recovery if you don't have a job?

Oh, I get it.

A recovery for the Speculators, who don't really work anyway.

Unless you call staring at a monitor all day waiting for Robot Buy signals as work.

I guess the Jobless Recovery is the same as Sex Without an Orgasm.

What's the point??

Yeah, I saw those hockey stick GDP Estimates in the 3rd and 4th quarter from 63 out of 64 Economists.

I also saw Jack "The Tin Man" Welch's divorce matter is going to court on Monday, unless they settle over the weekend.

I saw New York City bonds snapped up by hungry yield-starved investors at 5% tax free. Not bad, even though the City will go broke if New York State defaults and can't give NYC any more handouts.

I saw Kopin Tan mention for the 21st trading day in a row of "aggressive put buying on the QQQ's".

I saw YHOO and EBAY close at the top tick of the day at new highs.

I saw another 99% NYSE Record Highs at the close today.

I saw the Nazdog close at a supposed "double top", into which the entire Globe will be shorting into, which will unexpectedly "gap up" over the line on Monday, like we have seen so many times.
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#48 BarBu

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 03:57 PM


Mama-San spun this very weak job report so carefully. I especially like the statement about "The rising unemployment number is actually a positive indicator of a recovering economy as unemployed workers start looking for work again."

This is the biggest pile of horseshit I have ever heard!  :angry:


When I came to the silicon valley 198x,
my boss told me "each slowdown is a good chance to change blood".
"get rid off expensive dudes, repleace with new worker that pays cheaper, cost reduction...".

may be this is why Mama-San think it is "positive"

#49 Hypertiger

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:01 PM

Mark,

If it were up to me I'd make you the columnist on the WSJ.

Hypertiger,

Have read all your thoughts for a long time now and they are making more sense by the day.

As we get closer to the point at which the cold cruel reality of the credit crunch/liquidity trap which we are in becomes apparent...It gets clearer... coal fires go out if they cool enough same thing with a debt backed system...

At the beginning there is plenty of fuel but you have to keep adding it... The way the system works is that the more debt you create the less effect it has...

The greater the debt you create the less you can create it... if 1,000,000 people use 51% of their disposable Income to service debt how much more debt can you create with the other 49%?...at 100% that's it...But the only way to pay the compound interest in a debt backed system is to borrow or create more debt... If the consumers are maxed out but need more borrowing to pay the compound interest and their employment prospects are shrinking due to the fact that their employers are in the same boat... There is a huge problem... Debt inflation which worked so well on the way up works even faster on the way down... as the debt deflates employment shrinks which adds to the problem...it is self feeding... just like on the way up...They have been dropping The Federal Funds rate an average of 83 basis points/year for the last 23 years...there are 100 left... every time visible negitive consumer credit growth has shown up rates drop... until consumer credit is expanding faster than it previously was... for a recovery to take place...

At this point I think it is impossible for them to continue doing that...Not enough basis points left and banks need can't chop prime much further...

The next visible negitive consumer credit growth will be unstoppable... and since debt inflation is what is inflating the collateral backing it up... the collateral will drop in price further feeding the debt deflationary forces...

Other than some form of Hyperinflation (The printing of non debt backed money dumped on street corners)

There is no solution to the problem of how to get consumers to consume debt if they have reached their maximum potential for consumption...

When people are saying the FED is pumping liquidity into the system what is really happening is that the FED is lending to the consumer banks and finanicial institutions which fractionaly reserve it and then find suckers to sign on the dotted line to pay it back for the rest of their lives or Pump up the stock market at the bottom and engineer an exit at the top...

For fun and profit...

When the debt sponges soak up all they can, thats it, game over... this process has been going on for 23 years...

The key is the debt sponge consumer, when they are full they will be wrung out... some will be recycled and some will be thrown out. thats the ugly part that is coming very soon...

Either a miracle will show up or it won't...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#50 tpark

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:02 PM

Sphinxter:

Unbelievable.

These guys haven't held a Gold Eagle before???

I carry one at all times. It is addictive. The satisfaction of holding a small piece of wealth outside of The Matrix.

I got some Maples this week, and was nearly blinded by the brilliance of those coins.

Gold Fever.

If everyone just had one coin to hold, they would suddenly realize how worthless those greenbacks are in the big picture.

Da gummamint might not like ya promoting gold ownership - ya know it's just a commodity, not a pure and uncorruptable beatiful yellow store of weath that can't be inflated away. :)

I don't have any Gold Eagles, I should get some to see what they are like. The Maple Leafs are nice coins - that's what I have.

It's possible to read in books why gold became money, but for me the real understanding came after holding gold coins.

#51 joestool

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:05 PM

Thought I'd add to the coin sharing on the thread today.
Here's one of my favourites from my collection

Posted Image

It's a 1oz .999 fine gold proof edition of the 5000 lei (ROL) coin
by the National Bank of Romania. This is one of only 1000 pieces that were minted.
Pecunia non olet

#52 FeedFool

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:07 PM

Speaking of dim bulbs, my favorite idiots (64 economists) were out in force on the front page of the WSJ today proclaiming their hopes for a second half recovery.

Most amazing was that 20 of them predicted a better then 4% growth rate for both quarters.

Undetered by having over-guessed the 1Q GDP growth rate by 271%, James Smith of UNC came in with the higest guesses at 5.4% and 6.8% for Q3 and Q4, respectively. Apparently James shares an ivory tower office complex with some man known as "The Architect" and they've got a side business called "Matrix, Inc."

Unstated in the article is that the 64th economist, the bearish Gary Shilling of Shilling and Co., came closest out of the bunch on his 1Q prognostications. I'll assume he was only grudgingly re-included in this survey due to his prior accuracy. His go-forward numbers?

GDP of 3Q -1.6% and 4Q -2%. Those were the only negative numbers out of all 64.

Go Gary, go.

On another subject, I heard on the radio that "experts" consider the recent (un)employment to be a sign that we are truly in a "jobless recovery". Oh really? Isn't it even more probable that we are in a "jobless recession"?

That's not nearly as puzzling a concept. You know, Occum's razor and all.

Methinks they are referring those figures for China plus America then divide them to give American GDP. That should make the numbers.

Sir. Piss a Lotís is working for the Chinese and the Indians so their GDP numbers should be added with the Americans. I canít see any thing wrong with that can u?
:D :D :D :D

#53 strikerm3

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:13 PM

Sphinxter:

Unbelievable.

These guys haven't held a Gold Eagle before???

I carry one at all times. †It is addictive. †The satisfaction of holding a small piece of wealth outside of The Matrix.

I got some Maples this week, and was nearly blinded by the brilliance of those coins.

Gold Fever.

If everyone just had one coin to hold, they would suddenly realize how worthless those greenbacks are in the big picture.

Gold maples are so indescribably beautiful, their soft gleaming yellow light almost liquid and smooth, their weight surprising and substantial. The weight goes beyond mere ounces... it almost feels like a vessel filled with the dreams, hopes, greed, treachery and desire of men through all the ages, dating back to before there were written records.

I am an owner of maples. I carry a Kruge with me as a cheap substitute, more resistant to nicks and scratches than the soft, almost liquid 4-nines pure maples.

Maples along with the ozzie kangaroo's are prettiest of the "regular" gold coins.
Have some proof maples and eagles too - gorgeous coins.

You're right Wyndy, having a 1 oz. eagle in your pocket somehow makes you feel better.

how much does one cost currently?

#54 machinehead

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:13 PM

It's good to have you back Machine...

Thanks, Big Wave.

Speaking of your earlier comment on IDS about the disappearance of seasons in Houston ... in Feb. 1960 we got 8 inches of snow in Beaumont, 90 miles east of Houston. Still have photos of little brother and me, standing in front of a snowman taller than us (at ages 4 and 5).

Bet that doesn't happen much anymore on the Gulf coast (not that it was ever common).
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#55 scottcardiff

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:14 PM

They have been dropping The Federal Funds rate an average of 83 basis points/year for the last 23 years

That is amazing.

#56 paul-s

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:20 PM

Sphinxter: Great Post! It ranks up there with Mark's openner.

Wyndy: A perpetual thanks to you for your time, effort, and devotion to this site. Great material and amazing presentation, day after day.

#57 Sphinxter

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:21 PM

Methinks they are referring those figures for China plus America then divide them to give American GDP. That should make the numbers.

Sir. Piss a Lotís is working for the Chinese and the Indians so their GDP numbers should be added with the Americans. I canít see any thing wrong with that can u?
:D :D :D :D

Feed - that's a good point.

Expect the statistical revisionism wizards to burn a few candles these next few quarters.

I'll vote for something like:

"Commencing in July of 2003, government statisticians will henceforth hedonistically 'deflate' gubbermint spending by a factor of 2.42 in recognition of the fact that such expenditures are widely known to be massively, turgidly stimulative. Unnamed, but highly placed, goobermint officials are on record as stating that recent studies prove that each new BIA accountant actually adds more than 3x their salaries worth to the economy."

#58 FeedFool

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:25 PM

Here is what I have been waiting for the next one will Huge candle will be sell and dump all longs.

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#59 rott

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:30 PM

Three cheers to Mousey for arranging the NYCASS meeting last night AND for picking up the first round. Well above and beyond the call of duty.

The look on the hostesses face when I said I didn't wish to be seated downstairs because I "wanted to attend to some NYCASS business upstairs" was priceless. Kind of like a dog listening to white noise - but, that's what you get when you say stuff like that at my age.

Anyway, what a day on the markets. Bonds DOWN, stocks Down, and gold/silver mainly holding their own.

As rates rise, look for liquidity to dry up and for the markets to slump. My most reliable indicator these past few months has been Doc's Mogauge offset by 5 weeks. Works like a charm.

Only puzzling part about the NYCASS meeting was the number of stoolies interested in seeing a real gold eagle because they hadn't held one before. Please, everyone needs to buy just one. One. And put it in your pocket for a week. Then be sure to convert a few more of your worthless dollars into this real asset each week/month/whatever.

You won't regret it - Al's going to inflate this motherf****. Or die.

Umm so few bears have bought real gold??? I love that, means lots more demand coming.

BTW check out the Australian coins...beautifully minted.

#60 3Martinis

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Posted 03 July 2003 - 04:34 PM

From a Fed Annual Report........

d. U.S. Government and Federal Agency Securities and Investments Denominated in Foriegn Currencies

The Bank has been designated by the FOMC to execute open market transactions on it's behalf and to hold the resulting securities in the portfolio known as the System Open Market Account ("SOMA")........


Foreign currency market intervention...also known as SOMA. You can't make this stuff up :D

Each year the Treasury receives the Fed's revenue that is in excess of its expenses.

http://www.ny.frb.or...oint/fed45.html

Federal Reserve 2000 Annual Report:
Distribution of Net Income:
Dividends paid to member banks - $89,000,000
Transferred to Surplus - $916,000,000
Payments to US Treasury as interest on Federal Reserve Notes - $12,118,000,000
Total Distribution - $13,123,000,000


I'm confused a bit here regarding the statement that the Treasury recieves after expenses revenues from the Fed. How can you be both the major customer and benificiary at the same time ?

Tanks for any comments....... I know shiite





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