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Who Would Have Believed


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#46 The End

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 08:49 PM

Charmin,

"a slip of the hip, or another"?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#47 brian4

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 08:57 PM

END-Hochberg can't go to the bathroom without BoB's permission. Look I have a good deal of respect for both of them-they are going thru a rough patch-as everyone in their business does. Someone just posted "the board is turning bullish". I think NOT-Colonel-Neutral would be more apt a description. Trade Safe!

#48 brian4

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:10 PM

ASIA-is a sea of green wall to wall-the power of that insane old old turd. Aussie Bear-you better seek cover!

#49 The End

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:11 PM

B4,

Allz i nose iz, that punk lost me 250,000 last year. Yea you can say he's goin through a dry spell. How long have you been a subscriber?

I" cancelled my subsciption, to the ressurection" in Dec of last year, only to find out, later, they were ranked # 2 (fitting) :grin: Behind Arch Crawford from Jan.-june. i re-upt and "here we go again".

Same song, different dance.

Ya ever wonder why they give their service away "free" and that "free" giveaway is becoming more promenent lately?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#50 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:14 PM

Someone posted that they will only go long golds. One could also hedge long into energy stocks when the charts turn up as they tend to follow the larger market averages more than gold which tends to move opposite.

I'm also contemplating using maybe 30% of capital for a trading system using two stocks, RGLD (inflation) and AMAT (deflation) and following buy/sell signals on the RGLD/AMAT charts. Just paper trading for now. Impementation to follow.

The core positions of 60% being BEARX, various golds and energy (inflationary proxy stocks) and the odd utility or tech stock.

#51 PileDriver

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:16 PM

pssst, its clue time....

Today's magnificent rally was once again met with a decline in the bullish percent.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$BPOEX
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$BPINDU

Totally a bullshit opex related move.

I give this a .0000001% chance of getting to SPX 950. But even if it does I could give a big crap b/c I'm playing it safe with BEARX (down a measly 1.3%) until the ball gets rolling for sure. I've been saying this for awhile now, aggressive shorting comes later.

Another sad-sack gauge:

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNASD.html

If you feel like a chump being short now think how the bulls are going to feel come January. Both bulls and bears get screwed in the short run. Think big, think ahead. In which camp do you want to belong?

#52 Old Habits

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:16 PM

Mark - You called it perfectly in one of your posts yesterday. You were cautious while everyone here was screaming "tank". The pullbacks were on light volume, just as you warned.
I have no idea why extremely bright people here would try and fight the seasonal factors that are in play.
I'm stupid, I listened last year and got hammered, made the same mistake again this year. Hammered again. Just hoping we get B4's pullback in the A.M. so I can cover the shorts that were added today and I can add some longs. End is probably right, 940 by year end.
The matrix will never stop, we can't have it both ways, believing in the "powers that be" and then trying to fight them. :(

#53 The End

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:17 PM

Can anybody say T-bills? (not me but, somebody else)? :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#54

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:22 PM

b4,

Neutral is good, but I wouldn't go long. Like I said, I'm not a good trader.

#55

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:26 PM

Have to say I'm still bearish in the short term. The index has done a jump today and is running along underneath overhead resistance....strong resistance I might say. I really think the chances of breaking through are remote but who knows what the Aussie equivalent of DA BOYZ are planning for the close? The faves, Newscorp, banks are pushing the index up with a sprinkling of hopeful green amongst some of the others. Quite a bit of red too for the less favoured. Gold stocks pulling back a tad, not surprising considering the recent run. So I'm thinking it's just a short term Dover Sole bounce at this stage. I closed out a bank put yesterday for 50% profit but am holding on 2 other puts (april expiry). I'm not a believer in the Santa rally at this precise moment but remain en garde...

#56 The End

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:31 PM

Noticing the members loged on. DONOTKNOWSHIT is cracking me up. Maybe it should be DON"TKNOWSHIT but, maybe he/she is a data fan (startrek).

LOVE THE NAME and love this website. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#57

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:33 PM

Mark...
Another excellent post tonight.
PG looks very ripe here. Any particular reason why you've shorted IBM and not PG?

#58 The End

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:40 PM

Old habits die hard,

Is that you?

Or someone new?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#59 ShamPoo

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:46 PM

Mark,
If I recall correctly, from the start, your plan was to gather sorts, then hold on and wait for the collapse. But instead we got a series of slow declines punctuated by rapid assents. The plan was and still is a good one, but only in the real world. This is a Fiat world and resembles Hollywood more then a market. Nothing is holding back the printers.

To be fed up with the constant jamming and resulting rocket shots is more then understandable. We are not here to prove a point or to show how tough we are against a crooked entity. We are here only to make money, learn and have a good time. Still canít go long but will keep an open mind and eye. Thanks.

#60 MaxxPain

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 09:47 PM

Beautiful commentary. My short trades:
10/25 Short C at 35.55
11/14 Short IBM at 79.8

I came close to profit but today it slipped away. I am MaxxPain, because I hold on to losing positions to maximize my pain and never make a gain.

I have a gain on GG. Even MaxxPain gets lucky sometimes. Energy is going to destroy Al's little plan. You can't inflate earnings when the cost of goods grows faster than revenues. You can't inflate when your corporate gods are cutting labor costs because labor is the consumer. IT'S OVER.

Shrinking transistor size will start to decrease revenues. What used to require selling 5 chips will only require 1. Soon an entire computer motherboard will have one chip and it will do everything. Unless the volume of computers sold expands rapidly chip sales will decline. Profit for the semis is over. This is assuming there is no depression. I doubt many unemployed will see upgrading to 4 Ghz as a wise deployment for their welfare checks.





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