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#61 anoscope

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:23 PM

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new york dogs try yoga (found @ www.drudgereport.com) LINK

#62 The End

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:23 PM

The COT report is telling but, it does not say we can't go higher. They are priming the pump stoolies. Get ready. It's going to be splash DOWN time soon. :grin:

Mousey,

Yes, It was great!. It was WELL worth the 12 hours on the road. I mean that. I would'nt of missed that for anything. I will be there for stage three. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:25 PM

Confused- sorry it's on page 5 of last nites thread not Purdy but WhatIdo, whatido-I got confused they look alike-but everyone have a hair raising read. trade Safe! Don't pick on Dashley-its lonely on the ledge!

It was fairly crowded out here for awhile -- now most of my bear friends have taken the big dive or joined the bulls partying on the roof. :lol:

#64 The End

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:28 PM

It was fairly crowded out here for awhile -- now most of my bear friends have taken the big dive or joined the bulls partying on the roof. :lol:

I guess the ROOF is higher then the LEDGE. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#65 brian4

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:29 PM

Mousey-I know that I was just kidding too! The kernel is one of my favorites because he is like a weather barometer you will know how the markets are doing by reading Dashley. Out here where Barereister and I live we have a saying 'If you can see the mountains its about to rain, if you can't see the mountains its raining! Trade Safe!

#66 The End

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:31 PM

Black Friday from Steely Dan

From the album "Katy Lied"

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me
When Black Friday comes
I'll fly down to Muswellbrook
Gonna strike all the big red words
From my little black book
Gonna do just what I please
Gonna wear no socks and shoes
With nothing to do but feed
All the kangaroos
When Black Friday comes I'll be on that hill
You know I will

When Black Friday comes
I'm gonna dig myself a hole
Gonna lay down in it 'til
I satisfy my soul
Gonna let the world pass by me
The Archbishop's gonna sanctify me
And if he don't come across
I'm gonna let it roll
When Black Friday comes
I'm gonna stake my claim
I'll guess I'll change my name
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#67 wndysrf

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:31 PM

Noland painted a pretty dire picture of California.

So far, there is no visible evidence of any trouble out here.

The 24-year old large breasted blonde bombshell employed at $175,000/year as a Marketing Assistant for Expedia is still living in The Dream World. Driving her $42,000 BMW 330ci which just had its $1,300/year license plate fee tripled to $3,900/year.

So far, she is unfazed.

Especially when her bills are being paid by her boyfriend.

As for her $325,000/year "top closer" 32-year old boyfriend working at New Century with the $82,000 BMW 745il, things don't look bad from his vantage point either. His $1.7 million starter home in Newport Beach has already appreciated $300,000 in 6 months, so what little extra taxes and fees Gray Davis hands out is really of no consequence. Another "refi" to extract another $100,000 in equity will paper over a large portion of these "financial nuisiances"

Over on the other side of the railroad tracks, the Jerry Springer contestants can still be found at the Long Beach car wash with their Ford Expeditions with the brush guards, 21" flying saucer wheels which keep rotating after the car stops, and two Kenwood DVD Plasma Screen Players. No, he doesn't have a house yet. He's still renting a 1 bedroom apartment in a stucco box for $1,200/mo., trying to work down his $55,000 in credit card debt so he can qualify for a Fannie Mae interest-only mortgage for first time homebuyers. Trouble is, with so much consumer debt, he's finding it hard to stay ahead with his $14/hr. job as a car stereo installer at Best Buy.

The San Francisco Bus Drivers are still making $90,000/year. I don't think they have a clue that their wages will be dropping to $5.50/hr. later this summer.

Driving up the I-5 freeway yesterday, it was a virtual standstill. A Yobob Paradise with every brand, make, and model camper, diesel pusher, trailer, and motor home towing a trailer full of jet skiis and motorcycles. It was difficult to find a vehicle on the road older than 5 years.

If conditions change radically, I will keep you guys informed in real time as it happens.

But for now, the state's budget problems are a mirage for most people.

And while on the subject, BobBrinker has always recommended California General Obligation bonds as "dollar good" and impervious to credit default.

We shall see.
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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:32 PM

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new york dogs try yoga (found @ www.drudgereport.com) LINK

By "dogs" I assume Drudge is referring to both of them. I dunno, I think the one on top is kinda cute. Nice smile!

#69 coboy

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:32 PM

It's a very interesting environment..

First there is a painfully obvious complacency the traditional metrics exhibit, investor intelligence, bullish percentage yada yada yada..
On the other hand, every source I follow is extremely cautious, outright bearish and we have our own serial crash callers here too..
(Please explain, how is it any better than serial bottom calling ? Does the audience want it ?)

I keep wondering, is it because I follow bear sites ? I don't think so..
All those hedge fund managers writing for minyanville.com are quite bearish.
Today another metric has been added to my "bear arsenal", the volatility skew or lack thereof it. Apperantly out of the money puts are supposed to have higher implied volatility than at the money puts due to hedging activity and nowadays there is no skew in volatility so no hedging going on, another sign of complacency.. This is from a 175 mil hedge fund manager.
Bond guys seem more optimistic citing the new bond deals going on and that's very different from a year ago.. But, they too are looking for a crash albeit from higher levels.
Even Cramer is bearish than usual but he has a responsibility to be bullish so I believe he doesn't show it..
Smart people in realmoney are all bearish, Meisler etc..

Woowww.. Everyone is bearish.. So where are all those bulls ? The highest bull/bear spread ? I sometimes think someone is yanking our chain with those numbers.. Is it correct to compare them to the numbers of the heyday bullish market of the last twenty years ? Isn't there everchanging cycles ?

I try to detach myself from being a bear and try to understand what's going on. I don't wanna repeat the same arguments,
I want to see the bull side, here are my observations :

- It's not CRASHING ! It seems like consolidating (you call it distribution !).. How are we sure it will go down, in april the price action were very similar, then you know what happened..

- Before a crash, if happens, there will be lots of signs starting with a freezing corporate market, top picking never works ( at least for me) A crash can not be a crash anymore, futures limits !

- All bearish arguments were valid 200 points ago ! What kind of returns are we targeting here ?

- Majority wants market higher ! Only bears want it lower. That wealth effect is like a drug, people tasted it, they want it back. I don't even wanna think about political agenda..

- In the long term charts, the latest rise doesn't seem that big ! After treacherous years, bulls feel they are entitled to an up year and averages are up only 10 % or so yet for this year ! Average market return doesn't mean anything, the volatility of long term average market returns are very high, i.e. market may go up 100 % this year and %90 down next year, it may happen !

- After so much work, Fed can't give up ! They seem they really mean it this time. If you think they are powerless, I wonder where were you last two months ?

- People are sending money to mutual funds, this is a long term trend, they won't start withdrawing money immediately ! Until they stop or start withdrawing, no big declines !

- There is no alternative to stocks ! We're conditioned here to think stocks are worthless but it's not reality, S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.6%, better than putting your money to bank. That's why fair value of futures is negative.. I may not have money but people have and they are not all going to buy gold with it..

- What if a new killer app comes up ? How about that RFID thing, the biggest chip seller ? It's been quite a long time since the last must have thing came up..

- Why don't we concentrate on bear markets instead we try to force our will to the general market ? :unsure:

- Being a bear is no fun at all !

#70

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:34 PM

Mousey-I know that I was just kidding too! The kernel is one of my favorites because he is like a weather barometer you will know how the markets are doing by reading Dashley. Out here where Barereister and I live we have a saying 'If you can see the mountains its about to rain, if you can't see the mountains its raining! Trade Safe!

:wink2:

#71 Metamucil

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:34 PM

Lots of little head-shoulder patterns everywhere.

This one should move nicely, especially since AMGN is showing significant weakness.

Daily



..and long term support held here....which will be entered above 72.81...for da IRA. Inverted head-shoulders.
Daily


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#72 The End

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:38 PM

Woowww.. Everyone is bearish.. So where are all those bulls ? The highest bull/bear spread ? I sometimes think someone is yanking our chain with those numbers.. Is it correct to compare them to the numbers of the heyday bullish market of the last twenty years ? Isn't there everchanging cycles ?


First you call for 477ish on the spx and now this? whats up wit dat. Stick to your guns scott. we will see your number eventually. Believe it or not we need to get down to values that will scare the daylights out of the weak.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#73 brian4

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:38 PM

Markie-that last post was one of your best ever-you gotta be deep in a good red! Coboy go back and look for the last time we were down 3 weeks in a row and see what happened next. Trade Safe!

#74

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:38 PM

Coboy, Even the Lose Rookhoser panelists tonight were talking of a pullback before the next run toward 36,000.

#75 The End

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Posted 27 June 2003 - 10:39 PM

Lots of little head-shoulder patterns everywhere.

This one should move nicely, especially since AMGN is showing significant weakness.

Daily


..and long term support held here....which will be entered above 72.81...for da IRA. Inverted head-shoulders.
Daily

Meta, That is not a h&s patteren.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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