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So, Where's the Beef?


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#31 longOnUranus

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:04 PM

Puts on C at mid-day, calls on XAU - got a good execution from a normally crappy, manipulating, high spread market maker. Just had to wait all day. Still mostly cash. Will hold through scam week or breakout/breakdown, whichever comes first.

Gotta love CALVF!

I have started several businesses in my lifetime, and I made a rule never to borrow to pay for operating expenses - just for equipement or things you could sell in a secondary market to buffer your losses. Good article our our liquidity miracle here: GM in deep trouble. At least GM has dodged this gas tax!

Great weekend, everyone. Hug your kids while you still got 'em!

#32 summoner

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:09 PM

Stoolies, hope you all made some major coin this week. Held my index options purchased Monday till the close thurs and was able to get out flat, not what I had anticipated but better than losing coin! Market internals starting to break down in a big way, where have we seen this before? Wondering if any board members have read the book "America: What went wrong" Started this afternnon and cant put it down ..I can tell already, a must read for all stoolies, puts hypers thoughts into perspective. Bears time has arrived, when the trap door opens all hell gonna break loose, taking this next week off for some family time...may need to head back to the Great Bear Lodge...worked in Jan, better yet, should head to Canada to buy some property! B4 any ideas... Bears enjoy:


http://www.vtoreport...ent/putcall.htm

http://www.vtoreport...t/sentiment.htm

http://www.vtoreport...ntiment/cot.htm


http://www.decisionp...liate/NHNL.html
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

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NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#33

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:16 PM

Tig, from your post yesterday on M2M:

[BB,
While I agree with you on T/A, there are no givens. In other words, we break 980 SPX, we automatically go to 1020. I have T/A guys manage my money and they've lost, every time. They seem to miss the big moves consistently. If we bounce off of resistance levels, then what? If we break thru, will we continue? Everyone expects that because we went thru 980, that we we go to 1020. What does that say today?]

Any breakout/breakdown has to be confirmed by other indicators. That also goes for any formation/pattern IMO.

The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose?

The incentive for individual traders whose incomes rely solely on their T/A & trading skills is much higher.... If you don't get it right more often than wrong then you don't eat..

#34 DrStool

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:22 PM

The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose?

Not true.

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#35 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:22 PM

Tilt this chart about 15 degrees to the right and see inverse head and shoulders. Actually looks like an inverted three peaks and a domed house formation.

I just have a sneaking suspicion that the next leg up on the gold train is about to leave the station.

A possible scenario?

A = 235 (Sept 2003)
a = 115-180
b = 180-160
c = 160- 235
B = 235-175 (Dec 2003)
C = 175-350 (Dec 2004)

But I am an idiot. :grin:

Attached Images

  • hui.gif


#36 The End

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:28 PM

The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line.  What have they got to lose?  

Not true.

What Doc said.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#37 PileDriver

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:31 PM

Ass, like the new avatar. Very plausible scenario for HUI.

I'm in BGEIX. Not letting go.

HUI appears to still be in the early stages of the steady unrelenting rise phase (leg) similar to the 1995 rise in stock market. Hey, what else comes after a long 9 month volatile consolidation phase!? :P

Nice wall of worry to climb...still lots of skepticism. Will be brutal for those who don't believe and are short PMs.

#38 Slothrop

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:38 PM

Aussie: typical hedge fund manager gets 1% management fee and 20% of the profits. So, the manager gets paid a bit no matter what, but that 20% is the bump they hate to miss.

#39 Old Habits

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:38 PM

Thanks B4,
You and End seem to agree about Gold going higher. That is good enough for me, for now at least anyway. Thanks.

Aussie,
I believe you are actually referring to my post. The guys who have managed my money are T/A and sentiment. Unfortunately, with their methods, they were usually stopped out just before a big move in the direction they were seeking. In volatile markets, their methods simply do not work.
Now with moves like we've just experienced over the past 3 months, their stops would not likely have been hit, HOWEVER, with the VIX where it is and the P/C ratio where it is, they would not likely have been in on the long side, and may have been short, only to be stopped out yet again.
DOES ANY OF THAT MAKE SENSE????????
Perhaps the best way to play it is to do as Piles does, BUT, maybe only try to play at the mid-point of the down move. !!???
Yikes too much thinking going on here!!

#40

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:41 PM

The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line.  What have they got to lose?  

Not true.

What Doc said.

ok might have been a misunderstanding there but in his original post Tig said he had a roomful of T/A guys working for him and he edited the post to the above. It sounded to me like these guys still got paid regardless...

#41 PileDriver

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:44 PM

OH, exactly...my philosophy is if the next trend is going to last months then what is the rush in front-running it now before it actually happens.

I'd much rather catch the second train out of the station than get run over by the first one.

And I'll respond now to all those that will respond saying "there won't be another train."

Jesse Livermore always played it this way. Odds always favor a second chance especially after a rally this strong the dip buyers will still be eager to buy this PIG all the way down the slope of hope. Expect at least one sharp brief rally on the way down, if not many given the tons of mindless hopers around :lol:

#42 Old Habits

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:46 PM

[quote name='DrStool' date='Jun 20 2003, 08:22 PM'][quote name='aussiebear' date='Jun 20 2003, 09:16 PM'] The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line.  What have they got to lose?  [/quote]
Not true. [/quote]
[QUOTE]

One guy worked for straight 15% of profits, of course if you lose a half a mil like he did you make 0.0000.

The other guy just traded funds for 1.5%, whether he made or lost $$$. He only lost 150K.

Very ouch baby!!

#43 Hypertiger

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:47 PM

I decided to not post a big one on M2M...

New Ravings... You will most likely forget this within 24 or so hours.

I first knew about the mechanics of Fractional reserve banking in 1993...
It wasn't until 2001 that I actually comprehended it... Capitalstool was the last piece of the puzzle...

Old raving refresher... You have most likely forgotten this...

In the end everything except Fractional reserve banking will get the blame...

Fractional reserve Banking = the cause.

When you open your eyes in the morning = the effect.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#44

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:47 PM

Aussie: typical hedge fund manager gets 1% management fee and 20% of the profits. So, the manager gets paid a bit no matter what, but that 20% is the bump they hate to miss.

Sorry, yes, badly worded and I didn't mean the Manager but rather the employees...

#45 coboy

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Posted 20 June 2003 - 09:47 PM

From "Option Ayatollah" Larry McMillan :

The equity-only put-call ratios have fallen to new lows this week
, despite the slight setback in prices. New lows in
these ratios are bullish, for as long as they continue to trend downward,
they remain on buy signals. These equity-only put-call ratios will
remain in a bullish state until they bottom out and begin to rise. Only
then would they become bearish.


While there could be some reasonable debate as to whether such action
is bullish or not, we certainly feel that it is not bearish. Therefore, we
rate this indicator positive as best or neutral, at worst. Only if $OEX
prices fell below support and $VIX broke upward out of its range
say, broke above 25 -- would $VIX be in a bearish mode. Again, not
something that we foresee in the near future.





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