So, Where's the Beef?
223 replies to this topic
Posted 20 June 2003 - 04:59 PM
Al Green and Gov. Bernanke compare lever pulling attributes...........
"Your lever pulling muscles are puny...!!"
"My lever pulling muscles will break you ...!!"
Posted 20 June 2003 - 05:09 PM
Not sure if this got any play in IDS today as I wasnt around, but well worth a repeat if it was...
Ding-Dong, the Bear Is Dead
Friday June 20, 10:56 am ET
By Donald Luskin
This article was originally published on SmartMoney Select on 6/13/03.
THE LOWS OF last Oct. 10 have proven, so far, to be The Bottom. Through yesterday's close, the Standard & Poor's 500 has gained 29.9% gain over the 245 days since Oct. 10's lows. Even from the somewhat higher lows of March 12, the S&P has rallied 26.6% over 92 days.
But is the rally sustainable? Yes. Was Oct. 10 the bottom? Yes.
Ding-dong is right
For those that dont remember the investment prowess Mr. Luskin executed in his heyday, here is a refresher...
Metamarkets! Tune in to watch us lose millions in real time!
If Luskin says it, then its gotta be true!
Posted 20 June 2003 - 05:16 PM
"This is an environment that is hostile to innovation."
I've never heard that one before.
Posted 20 June 2003 - 05:18 PM
On the weekly candes: gravestone doji in equities, gravestone doji in treasuries, gravestone doji in gold, and a bullish engulfing in Uncle Buck. And, the fed started draining this week in its open market ops. So, there's your rally right there. Cut off the feed, and the rally reversed.
Second half recovery my freaking ass.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 20 June 2003 - 05:48 PM
Ah! Fokker-you do have a unique grasp on the market testicles-I couldn't agree more! Notice Crisco getting cooked today-Crisco is ALWAYS the first to crumble in a turn as the slimy pos should be. Things are heating up on a number of fronts-all day the news mantra was (get this) the $ is rising BECAUSE AL is going to cut rates-LOL. My two fave news pieces were some snot of an Undersecretary of State telling the BBC that " the U.S. reserves the right to invade Iran" if they won't stop the nuclear thingie. Second (on MSNBC) Da Boyz in Iraq are saying "why are we here-they hate our guts and keep shooting at us." Plus an admission the new attacks are coordinated and have command and control-GEE-I wonder WHO that would be. Plus some fool analcyst on proctovision was asked if natural gas prices would continue to rise and he replied-"well it's a weather thing you know" for this they pay him $ TGIF! Trade Safe!
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:08 PM
Chop .25 then lab rat the moneymarket aftermath into equities could be trick?
Will it work? Short term maybe...if the theory holds...
Big picture...Grim beyond belief.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:14 PM
If the economy were recovering, the Fed would not be cutting, and everybody knows it.
DaBoys know that everybody is heading for the exits after the 30th, so now the only question remaining is how soon do they start to front-run the exits. My contention, based on the home builders and the internets is that they already are. A new trend in the past week is a big increase in calls to borkers to put in stop-loss orders. As we all know too well from our stops being taken out on the upside, when those stop-loss orders become market orders, the spreads get huge, and the moves get radical.
Is it early? Is it time?
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:19 PM
They don't know it. The bulls really do believe that the economy is on the mend. They are completely insane, but they do believe it. They say, "I hope the Fed doesn't cut 50 points because it sends the wrong message." If the economy is growing, you don't need to worry about messages. The truth is the economy is not on track for 4% growth and the Fed knows it. The bulls, however, are clueless.
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:27 PM
doji = (adj-na,n) blunder or clumsiness
Hopefully I can avoid doji. Especially in investing.
Here's some news:
Contract Electronics Manufacturer Solectron reports USD3.1 billion loss
They can't even pay the interest on the money they owe.
2nd half recovery? Not in tech stocks.
A Shrug of the Shoulders.
We generally give to our ideas about the unknown the color of our notions about what we do know: If we call death a sleep it's because it has the appearance of sleep; if we call death a new life, it's because it seems different from life. We build our beliefs and hopes out of these small misunderstandings with reality and live off husks of bread we call cakes, the way poor children play at being happy.
But that's how all life is; at least that's how the particular way of life generally known as civilization is. Civilization consists in giving an innapropriate name to something and then dreaming what results from that. And in fact the false name and the true dream do create a new reality. The object really does become other, because we have made it so. We manufacture realities.
An excerpt from "The Book of Disquiet," written by Fernando Pessoa in the 1920's, first published in 1982 by Atica in Lisbon.
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:31 PM
Picture-perfect inverted head-shoulders
Locked and loaded
The volume, the volume.....
Fear, directly ahead
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:48 PM
Well the rally I mentioned here mid-March has taken the S&P up some 25% and the NDX some 30%. The 78.5-week cycle looks like it has run its course though.
But I didn't come here to brag. I now started shorting but only fractionally. I'll be adding to shorts with a stop at the recent high. looking for 3-4 months decline.
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:51 PM
Oh. But this, the 13th one is just for insurance sakes right? Too ensure that the recovery will take hold. I think I heard the same crap on the 11th and 12th rate fart as well. What a joke.
The killer today, $NYSI and $NASI crossed over. $BPSPX is also now intersecting.
May have jumped the gun a bit but the $BPNDX told me so. Initiated a 15% position today via RYAIX.
Posted 20 June 2003 - 06:54 PM
With no fear of plagiarism, Keynes also recommended the ancient misunderstanding that a credit vacuum and deflation that normally follows the expenditure of available credit during the mania can be turned around by the artificial injection of credit by some very earnest agency. (Friedrich Hayek recalled that when Keynes was contriving his remedies, he was totally ignorant of financial history.)
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