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#31 K Wave Rider

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 10:32 PM

Failure to go to new highs today was big victory for da bears.

McClellan finally topped today. It's got a LOOONG way to drop from here.

More pieces look like they are falling into place now.

The price action from here should tell us a lot. This week's high needs to hold. Udderwise anudder ramp towards 1050.

SOXie also near an important area. If it's a baby bull, it should turn back up shortly with a vengeance. If it don't, bully is in big trouble.

Trannies and RUT also hit their head hard at some powerful resistance on the weekly charts. I'll be watching them closely as well.

My gut says one more leg up into July, but we have extreme enough readings, that this week's spike could have been the high.

Probably a good time to start looking for stocks that are not participating in the rally anymore. Or better yet, never did. :lol:

#32 K Wave Rider

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 10:36 PM

Parabola for bonds or stocks, K? You must be talking about the 10-year T. I don't see any evidence of parabola-style moves on the stock indices. Looks like the end of a move to me, with a test of 1020 possible, probably on tired volume and with tired, worn-out indicators.

Sloth,

Yes Sir, Tbonds are what I'm refurring to.

#33 wndysrf

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:00 PM

Listen to the market.

What is it saying?

A Have and Have Not, Bifurcated scenario.

Housing, consumer, and mortgage stocks will be going into a Parabolic Liftoff.

Certain medical related stocks will be immune to the bear cycle and will likely keep chugging up.

Tech stocks are probably ready to get smashed, with some exceptions. Semis and Nutworkers are likely crash candidates. But Internuts will hold together because they are now considered consumer and advertising stocks.

What I see is a sideways market through the summer, with massive sector rotational plays. Just ride the screamers up, unload them, then look for the next sector to catch some bids.

Best strategy is to follow PileDriver's Sybill Split Personality Portfolio.

50% Dong the Boner Extension stocks.

50% Short the weak momo stocks unloaded by the Riverboaters.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#34 The End

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:05 PM

What I see is a sideways market through the summer, with massive sector rotational plays. Just ride the screamers up, unload them, then look for the next sector to catch some bids.


Wyndy,

Wanna bet that we won't be sideways till the equinox? B)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#35 Pee Brain

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:10 PM

noland is of course correct. the basis of the debt pyramid (inverted) is continuing credit expansion. when the liquidity dries up, then the inverted pyramid will fall on its base, or as the debt load becomes too large, the pyramid crumbles. the GSEs are leveraged to a point (not to long ago, i read fannie was 69 to 1) that if the liquidity dries up, and the underlying asset prices deflate, then the contraction will be exponential. the leverage will work against them. this debt pyramid is balanced on its tip.

this is the same paradox that Wimpy leans on when discussing (hoping for) continued Furner purchases of our debt. they have too much already, so we are safe in concluding that they will buy more; therefore, the system is stable. this one gets me everytime.

the difficulty for rational folks is preparing for the unknown inevitable whatever bust - for the time being all the old rules are being usurped by extreme leverage and speculation. do i sell CA real estate and increase income by buying out of state? do i stay in highly desirable areas (and extremely inflated) or do i take grab the gains and expand my asset base. do i continue to wipe out all debt? .. do i continue to hoard cash with the unlikely prospective that at some point savings will be TAXED. interesting the principal as well as the income (interest) will be taxed jointly. again, i come to the conclusion that PMs and miners arent a bad place to be for the LT.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#36

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:15 PM

From the action in the Tbonds, it is starting to feel like the final derivatives based buying spiral parabola began this week. Straight up until exhaustion, and then the derivatives based selling spiral will begin.

That will not be be pretty.

I'll just watch and be on the lookout for the monster reversal candle with the big spikey top that seems to usually mark the top of the parabola.

Wonder if it will come in early July, after quarter end.

I have my seatbelt and helmet on and am now fully prepared to ride this monster to the end. Always like reading your takes. Thanks. :unsure: :lol:

#37 PileDriver

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:38 PM

Liking PMs steady organized rise

http://www.gold-eagl.../goldheart.html

Falling broads and rising PMs make BEARX very attractive right now.

It did VERY well today and is essentially back to where it was in late April!!! Only off 1.5% since then! Pretty amazing considering SPX up 8% since then!

What a great way to position now for an eventual bearish trend in broads w/o having to take on too much risk like the inverse funds force you into taking.

For BEARX, future looking bright, gotta wear shades B)

#38 WillytheBooh

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:43 PM

http://crucialforum....n_down=0&page=0

Really think we have 29.00 in sight early in the week and see a break into high 28.60 or so........ Methinks that this will be bottoming in 5-7 trading days then we lift off back into July 2nd top but short of the 31.47 top... That should form the double top that confirms the big move down once and for all.....

Regards Savas (c:)0

#39 anoscope

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:47 PM

wowza.. what a pop on bearx today..

um, cool

#40 PileDriver

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:52 PM

wowza.. what a pop on bearx today..

um,  cool

Smart way to play this right now.

You can get in RIGHT NOW and not have to worry about exact timing (i.e. final top now or later?)

PMs will likely keep going up and Mr Marke is tinkering on the brink of disaster.

Buy it and forget it! :lol:

What an OPP, ltd downside unlimited up!

#41 anoscope

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Posted 13 June 2003 - 11:58 PM

wowza.. what a pop on bearx today..

um,  cool

Smart way to play this right now.

You can get in RIGHT NOW and not have to worry about exact timing (i.e. final top now or later?)

PMs will likely keep going up and Mr Marke is tinkering on the brink of disaster.

Buy it and forget it! :lol:

What an OPP!

i bought $10k at 7.22 and have not even considered selling bearx. I had planned to cover with spx if it went the wrong way for awhile, but didn't do it. I'll just leave it on the line. if it goes green, i'll add another $50k, then balls to the wall 100%.

#42 PileDriver

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Posted 14 June 2003 - 12:01 AM

wowza.. what a pop on bearx today..

um,  cool

Smart way to play this right now.

You can get in RIGHT NOW and not have to worry about exact timing (i.e. final top now or later?)

PMs will likely keep going up and Mr Marke is tinkering on the brink of disaster.

Buy it and forget it! :lol:

What an OPP!

i bought $10k at 7.22 and have not even considered selling bearx. I had planned to cover with spx if it went the wrong way for awhile, but didn't do it. I'll just leave it on the line. if it goes green, i'll add another $50k, then balls to the wall 100%.

I almost didn't catch its move and the bullish position of the gold-heart indicator.

I'm going full balls to the wall Monday on it (IRA).

SPX can make one final move to 1050 before finally cracking down for all I care - so what! :lol:

SCREW YOU AL! :P

#43 supercolonblow

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Posted 14 June 2003 - 12:04 AM

Thanks Pile
Bearx looks good here. Anyway to find out what they are holding now / their strategy?

I am holding PENN long from 18.55 using that vv strategy I am working on. Looks good so far. Comments anyone?
SCB


I will put together a pick -3 shorts only competition after the trend change. Anybodys guess!


I would like to offer a simple competition as a test project on LOB.
Parameters
1.3 picks- short only.
2. 1 week duration
3.Limited contestants 10-20
4 winner pays Doc $25 which they surely have if they are killing the market with these picks.
5. Picks must be in by Midnight Saturday and will be priced at Fri market close with final price at close the following Friday.
I have the software so this will be easy to set up.
I will use clearstation nasdaq signals for the trend change.
Comments or suggestions?
scb




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#44 seamus

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Posted 14 June 2003 - 12:07 AM

Hey All - tough loss tonight for the Nets...

Was at a hedge fund confab last night that was sold out - 200+ people. And when the moderator asked if there were any people that worked for a fund, nary a hand went up. Next, when he asked if those in attendance were looking to secure a position in the industry...well, row the boat.

Anyway, corporate spreads bounced back from the widening of last week or so. Still an issuer's market until the red flag goes up. Incredible.

#45 rayok

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Posted 14 June 2003 - 12:16 AM

The collossal joke is, that there is huge inflation happening right now. It is not recognized because the most desired asset on the planet is YIELD. As more money is created, it competes with existing capital in search of YIELD, driving prices higher and yield lower. Bonds are saying 3.2% is a good risk adjusted return for the next ten years. The dumb money is speculating in stocks priced to yield 30%, but destroying capital because of over capacity. As long as central banks continue to print more money, enabling over capacity to continue, and YIELD is the most desired asset, bonds will continue to inflate and over capacity will continue to destroy capital. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! :P

P.S. This is not a reco to buy bonds. Personally, I am hedged up the ying yang. Inflation? Deflation? I will survive, and thrive.





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