Full Moon Over The Assylum (11/27/02)
15 replies to this topic
Posted 27 November 2002 - 08:18 PM
Full Moon Over The Asylum (11/27/02) The angry ones are out there on the eve of Tanksgiving. And Doc is hearing it and feeling it. What can he say, but have a joyous Tanksgiving and hug your loved ones!
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Posted 27 November 2002 - 11:31 PM
to all stoolies:
Before I came to stoolville, I made a lot, then lost a lot with the philosophy of a bull. I sold too early in the up times, and still made money, but being able to buy fewer and fewer stocks as they increased in value. At that time, I should have been a buy and holder with stops.
After visiting stoolville and reading what I had never found anywhere on any site, I wondered to myself if maybe something was different after all. I sold all the stock I was holding as an experiment, and found my $$ growing in value as the market fell. I'm still too chicken of unlimited losses (a $5 gap up for example) to short much except intraday.
I still do trade long once in a while, and I've missed a lot of opportunities. But as I've learned here, there is always a next time.
I was going to short QQQ and/or SPY shortly after the open today, but it never fell 50 cents 'suddenly' and no 5 to 10 minute followthrough selling. I had 1000 shares of BBY that was in the hole for a week or more in my IRA (not the 401k that is still locked up). and sold some on peaks today (email@example.com) during a really active buying binge, and offered another 200 (sold firstname.lastname@example.org) after hours probably to some desperate bear. the time of the transaction is 18:59:30. So I still have 700 left to sell. Ok, if I'm wrong and doc is wrong, I will have sold some early, but as doc has said repeatedly, it is never bad to take profits.
I'm down some 20% since May. I listened and tried to learn from all of you and I am glad to be able to read the thoughts and ideas of all of you. That 20% probably would be down 50% or more if not for the views I read on capitalStool.
It is absolutely amazing to me that all the buyers wanted stock today, with basically 5 days until the next liquid market (Monday may not be liquid either). Someone pointed out in the IDS that the VIX was up probably by the 'smart' money buying protection hedges for their recent purchases.
You guys are the best!
Again, this Thanksgiving, I'm thankful for doc and CapitalStool!
p.s. the reason I try to do graphics and avatars is so I can 'give back' something to stoolville
Posted 28 November 2002 - 08:00 AM
First of all...Happy Thanksgiving!
Second, thanks for the Feed analysis, your cycle analysis and your commentary.
You've helped me make some money over the last year, more importantly you've helped me avoid losses.
Appreciate the effort you put into this site and as always my money management is my responsibility.
Thanks also to numerous stoolies for their insights and commentary.
Uhh, that's it...good holiday all
Posted 28 November 2002 - 12:26 PM
Doc, I'd love to access the anals, however your system has locked me out... Is there a problem? Doesn't seem to recognize my user and password...
After further trials, I was able to access the Anals, but not off the link you offered on the thread... using the link on the left side of the page, it let me in...
Also, you need to check the stool dictionary for the proper spelling of ASS-sylum...
Happy Turdkey Day to all....
Posted 28 November 2002 - 01:37 PM
it's almost scarey how many indicators are indicating a major top right now as the Bradley model is calling for one 11/26 +/- a day, some models point to Dec 2 then a huge decline in December to break the Oct lows, a slight pop at end of Dec then more unrelenting decimation until March/Aprl.
I am so torn as what to do - it almost seems too easy.
I think I'll blow it out on Friday/Monday, what the heck. There was practically mutany on Stoolville yesterday, emotions running high, its got to be the end. Many patterns show a clean five waves up from Nov 11 lows to conclude the Oct 9 to ??? wave 2 (A-B-C) "idiots rally" then a fast moving Wave 3 downdraft next.
VectorVest market indicators are all hitting extremes I haven't seen since Jan 2002 and May 22, 2001.
Perhaps a probe or two higher btwn 11/29-12/3, but is it worth waiting for or go for broke now?
Posted 28 November 2002 - 02:29 PM
Pile , Im with you risk reward here is too good to worry about limited upside ....scaled into ELX short this week as well as more MXIM ..this has to be beginning of wave 3 down...bulls rampant ,most shorts blown out already, TIME recc home equity loans to buy stocks with...nothing to prevent a waterfall decline..will also be buying more physical gold between now and year end ...fire em up
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
Posted 28 November 2002 - 07:00 PM
yes right. I think to go short tomorrow isnt that wrong, risk is only a whopsaw break of 965, but that one we can only get if we go up tomorrow - say to 950 - hold it there more or less and then gap up on monday - say to 960 - and then they suck em all in and finally begin to sell from 975 on mondays p.m..
But that sounds more like a monster style worst case scenario, so i would say go short tomorrow could be ok.
risk/reward is definitely now on our site, risk 30 for 250, doesnt that sound good?
good sign would be a intraday reversal in nikkei in the comming session.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 29 November 2002 - 03:23 AM
"This" doesn't "have" to be the "beginning" of ANYTHING.
Posted 29 November 2002 - 03:25 AM
That lASSt post about "this" not "having" to be the "beginning" of "anything" was HRFF's, BTW...
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 29 November 2002 - 08:39 AM
So right you are Bare. Gawd, did I really just type that?
A couple of weeks after this rally started I pegged the Dow at 9000 + - 200 as the turn. I would feel a little better if we had hit that 9000 figure. Now I know the Dow is easily manipulated and is only 30 stocks, but I chose to use this as my indicator because it's the one that makes the headline news for the sheeple. A glance at a 5 year chart popped that number into my procotscope. I just love symmetry. I am a total idiot when it comes to TA, however to me it looks like the left shoulder in 98 still needs a match. I discount the 9/11 plunge as a false dive caused by the obvious. To me it looks like the Sept 02 plunge into early Oct. comes closer to creating a proper trough for the begining of the right shoulder. But then what do I know.
Posted 29 November 2002 - 08:43 AM
Posted 02 December 2002 - 01:01 AM
This is Da DogBoy testing the new board.
Posted 02 December 2002 - 01:24 AM
Re- the DJIA chart posted by yobob1 above. I challenge anybody to put an acceptable "orthodox" Elliott wave count on that dog's breakfast of overlapping chops.
As best I can tell, it's an a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h-i-j-k flat correction from Jan. 2000 (seriously, count 'em). If he weren't bearish-biASSed, Bob Prechter probably would label it a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c, implying that the next primary impulse wave from Oct. 9th is now underway.
Elliott wave analysis is almost meaningless in this sort of extended flat, where the a-b-c-x subwaves could propagate from now till eternity or 2018, whichever comes first. Even a new high in the DJIA could be labeled 'x' in a continuing flat correction.
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