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Inflation/deflation Debate


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#1 Flaming Turds

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 11:23 PM

This is a great article on the debate.

http://www.gold-eagl...orth121702.html

How long can they postpone the inevitable? I think they may have a few years left in them and during that time gold should rocket and then perhaps it will plunge. Im reading 'conquer the crash' right now and he says that in the early 1990s Greenie lowered the reserve rate on all accounts other than checking accounts to zero. There is a convenient loop hole for the checking accounts. He claims banks have lent 25% more than they have on deposit. I think they will follow Japans lead and monetize the banks assets. It should be one huge mess. Its going to take some real finesse to not get run over by this thing.

#2 Contrarius

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:13 AM

That is a great article. Being that I am no economist, it sure helped me out.
Deflation must be a threat, judging by the overwhelming consensus that
it is "not a threat, will not happen, and the Fed will not allow it to happen."

It's amazing how every mainstream strategotist and egonomist claims
it will not happen.

DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH!

#3 Hypertiger

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 05:53 AM

And when nobody can afford or wants to buy Japan's exports, Will the BOJ buy all that too? Weird...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#4 DogBoy

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 01:57 PM

"gold should rocket and then perhaps it will plunge"

And what will it (Gold) plunge against at that future time you speak of ?

With the dollar in the dust bin of history and fiat currencies (and the entire modern financial system completely dis-credited) Gold will be the only currency left.

Gold and barter ---- real things --- will be all there is.

What 99.999% of people today don't understand is that we're seeing a millenial shift and not just a correction or a down phase.

We're headed for an entirely new world and new system in which comparisons to the past will be nearly impossible.

The volatility in markets were seeing is symptomatic of a world system that is in it's "death throws", not a correction or ordinary bear market like the 30's.

The level of corruption thruout all levels ans aspects of modern society has reached such a level that it cannot be just "fixed". No more than you can fix someone whose been smashed by a semi-tractor trailer.

Entirely new thinking and new ways are the only answer.

Everything need to be swept aside and started over. And we're seeing this happenning right now.

And there is noone on the planet that can change the course of this no matter how much they try.

The ultimate outcome will be the kind of world that people can happily live in and raise their children in safety and peace.

The transition pahse that were in will be difficult but it won't last long.

My guess is that by 2014 all will be done and the world will be at peace until the end of time. Nobody will ever again be violent or disobedient or dishonest again.

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 02:53 PM

We're headed for an entirely new world and new system in which comparisons to the past will be nearly impossible.

You mean, a paradigm shift? A new economy? A new world order? Again? Gasp! B)

Seriously, earlier this year I happened to catch some really old guy in Crapvision. I don't know where they had dug it from, but he had started his career in 1929, as a financial journalist right on the top of the crash. He had been many things since.

They had him talk about the Enron collapse and the bear market in general. The guy wasn't optimistic - not at all - but he was... tired. The general sense of his talk was basically "This is nothing new. I've seen this two or three times already in my life. Enron is just the tip of the iceberg; there will be more big-name bancrupcies. There will be lawsuits, as people seek to blame somebody for them losing money in the stock market. Eventually, it will all run its course, as the excesses are wrung out. There is nothing new on the stock market.".

My guess is that by 2014 all will be done and the world will be at peace until the end of time.  Nobody will ever again be violent or disobedient or dishonest again.


Then your guess implies that the human civilization will stop existing in 2014. :blink: While that's certainly a possibility (what with every camel driver aquiring weapons of mass destruction), I still much prefer it than living in a civilization in which nobody is disobedient ever again - because that will be a civilzation of cattle, not of humans.

Regards,
Vesselin

#6 Flaming Turds

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:45 PM

Dogboy I should be more specific at times. I meant gold shares in my above post. I dont know how gold itself will be valued but the paper shares could get sold hard if everyone is starving. Im trying to figure out if there will be a tipping point in the shares where you have to sell and then transfer all gains to something else like a house (if you dont own one) or risk losing it all.

PS a little disobedience is a good thing, without dissonance thered be no rock n roll.

PPS There is a REALLY great article in the new wired magazine that is worth getting a hold of. It is about the virtual economies that are springing up around certain games and causing large dollar amounts to change hands over work people do while in the game. One of the points they make is that people seem to choose the difficult contrived existance over the simple easy one, whether in a real economy or not. Its really interesting, they disect one such transaction and interview the various participants and report on their lifestyles etc. Stuff that really makes ya go hmmm.

#7 DogBoy

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:52 PM

Ok maybe no disobedience is a stretch.

Maybe I'm getting a little too carried away with connecting to my "spiritual life" which I think is a natural response to the impending doom about to be visited upon the world.

But I do beleive that when we get thru these problems the world will be a much better place and people will be nicer.

As for the "new system" it will probably be a lot like the old system that existed before fiat currencies and central bankers.

So I agree with you that it won''t really be "new" but more of a return to the past ways. Which for people living today will seem "new".





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