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#481 Quicktrade


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:33 PM

Looks like we all need to consider the following.

Long term traders are getting their first confirmed buy signal since the bull market correction began in 2000. The market made it's FIRST high after a higher low by trading over 955, and now it is confirming by trading over 965 highs of August. Bulls see targets of 1165.

What bulls don't see is the harmonic convergence of many patterns in the 970-985 area.

970 = 50% of the 1172 - 768 down move.

973.9 = weekly close 9/4/98 (neckline)

974.55 = A = C move

978.2 = 38.2% of the fib grid from top (1552) to fib target of 622 (632 is
61.8% retrace of 1974 bottom at 62.28 to top at 1552.87)

977 = 38% of the 1315 - 768 down move.

980 area = Bearish Butterfly Target

981 = 20 Month Moving Average

983.46 = 38.2% retrace of 26 yr bull market move of 62.28 to 1552.87
(what was support is now resistance - how the heck did I miss that in
Sept. '01?)

984.3 = weekly cloes 10/9/98 (neckline)

988 = Wave 5 target for up move since March

We have had three months up to a downtrending 20 Month Moving Average

We have a 5 year Head and Shoulder DISTRIBUTION pattern.

We have the most redlined overbought indicators IN THE HISTORY OF THE FREAKIN' STOCK MARKET (relative to the past 5 years)

Write this down:

If the market trades up to 975 with a low TRIN and a low PC ratio wait for a short signal using the 15 minute chart. Stop above highs. If stopped out, continue to short using the 15 minute chart. If the market moves ABOVE 990, wait for signal on 60 minute chart OR daily chart OR discontinue shorting altogether.

If the market bolts up to 980 area within the first 30 minutes of trading with a very low TRIN and low PC, Short using the 5 minute (or even the 1 minute) chart for entry. Stop above highs. Continue until above 990.

This area is the lowest risk short entry in the past 2.5 months. Above 990 DO NOT SHORT. Below 980, DO NOT GO LONG

The risk reward scenario for bears is fantastic at these levels. A realistic target is 625 for shorts. You are risking 5-10 points for 350 points.

I agree 100%.

Throwing on a short position as soon as I see a stall for more then 10 minutes. We haven't had a large gap opening in over a month. I think its a perfect set up for the gap and crap. If it should for some reason keep running up I think we would have a correction at least back to where we were Friday close within a few days. It's my opinion it would be a lower risk trade.

One of the things that would make me a little hesitant would be to see the Fed come in with 10-15 billion then I may sit back and watch for a bit.

Man, the buck was just up 1.41 a few minutes ago.

I think its Put time.


#482 crooked_analyst


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:33 PM

I've read through the first 12 pages, haven't got through the rest yet.

Not sure if this was mentioned but New York state is raising sales tax .25% starting today.

And if you buy less than $110 worth of CLOTHES, you are taxed an additional 4.25%.

So where I am in Monroe County, that's 12.5% total tax on clothing...

Aren't there lots of places that don't even tax necessities?

Great, we have Federal tax cuts...yay...just nevermind the increasing state taxes.

What sh*tty state to live in.  What a f'in joke.


You could always join us out in The Peoples Repubic of Kalifornia :angry:

Ha! I just signed up at this site.

Once 5,000 people sign up, they vote to see which state they all move to en masse to take it over and show the world what small, non-intrusive government really means.

I'm all for it.

Desperate people do desperate measures....Al Green has his overswollen nuts in a VICE...without a doubt, the majority of Bears will be blown to smitherines....simply said....regroup and reload .....VICTORY is NIGH..they may win the Battle yet LOSE the WAR.....there is NO BULL MARKET that commences at these levels....NOTHING more than smoke and mirrors, like trying to squeeze into an overloaded Elevator...just step aside and let the last victim in.......

#483 Oilman


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:33 PM

Time like these will try our convictions, especially us bears. Remember and never forget cash is a positon!

Cash is King, but kings prefer gold.


#484 crooked_analyst


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:34 PM

I well remember Rees-Mogg or JD Davison of "The Great Reckoning" capitulating and going long internets right at or near the top in Feb/March 2000. This is starting to have the same flavor.

If Hypertiger capitulates, I'm going 200% short with everything I can borrow from AG.

AWESOME READ.....Sitting on my Library Shelf....tanks for the remembrance

#485 Stutz


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:42 PM

Very short.
Pot's right.

#486 brian4


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:48 PM

Mark-this is difficult for me as I have bailed this guy out in the past (it's in the archives) but I now do suscribe to your thoughts on merciless-it's just too damn pat -we swing to a high and out of a puff of smoke he rides-sorry mercy-but like mark I think you are a plant. trade Safe!

#487 strikerm3


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:50 PM

HANG SENG 9624.90 137.50 1.45% 11:38
NIKKEI 225 8569.80 145.30 1.72% 12:38

S&P 969.10

wow, much more than Ive seen. Greenspan has only been to bed for 6 hours so far.

#488 supercolonblow


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Posted 01 June 2003 - 11:59 PM

US new car sales expected to falter

Time for sleep. Great posts everyone.

Thank you for this site!

It is truly phenomenal!


#489 coboy


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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:11 AM

You know blackbelt I'm sorry you feel the way you stated-I'm a pro and you are too- a lot people on this thread need your and my and others insight-

I will probably get booted for this by Doc but it's probably worth it : <_<

Note from Doc Now, you know you are not allowed to attack your fellow stoolies. And you also know that I don't boot people for minor transgressions. At least if you read my earlier post, you know.

Edited by DrStool, 02 June 2003 - 06:58 AM.

#490 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:17 AM

Time for an avatar upgrade to calm the masses!

#491 Oilman


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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:20 AM

It is hard being wrong, but even worst losing money being wrong. Everyone's trade is his/her own and we all must take responsibility. I am sadden when I see so much finger pointing.



#492 Auntie Septic

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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:25 AM


The "we" coboy writes of does not include me.

FWIW, I like reading about the successes of fellow
stoolies. I also like reading your posts as well as
coboy's, marks, end's, merciless and others I'm too
lazy to type.

As for merciless being a plant, I'm not convinced.
However, I would encourage him to post his dongs
here before he assumes the position. No one
really expects the market to go straight down (although
I wish for it every day), and I like reading a rational
argument as to why a dong play might be way to go short term.

The overall objective is to make money and have fun, right?

#493 alceringa


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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:26 AM

Time for an avatar upgrade to calm the masses!

Haven't seen so much charged emotions and outright anquish around stoolville since late March/early April of 2002.

Bulls were near the end of their "March Madness" then.

Just remember, "This time its different" :lol:

BTW, great "no whining" avitator, reminds me of my ex!
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

#494 Short'em High

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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:29 AM


It sure is rowdy in the saloon this weekend!

Holy crap. Beers being tossed, chairs brokin' again.

Trail guides walking out the door.

Drunks sassin' the Doc.

Geez we must be near a top.

Any bears that are left, Short'em High is with you.

Hang tough and be ready to take profits.

Al from the east is stoking this railroading speculation all over again, but it won't last.

If you must, lighten up by 1/2, then you're only 1/2 wrong or right.

Doc we love it when you come into the saloon, especially when you get fiesty.


#495 Crapper John

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Posted 02 June 2003 - 12:42 AM


Your posts always make me laugh. :D

Your welcome at the swamp anytime for martinis.


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