Long term traders are getting their first confirmed buy signal since the bull market correction began in 2000. The market made it's FIRST high after a higher low by trading over 955, and now it is confirming by trading over 965 highs of August. Bulls see targets of 1165.
What bulls don't see is the harmonic convergence of many patterns in the 970-985 area.
970 = 50% of the 1172 - 768 down move.
973.9 = weekly close 9/4/98 (neckline)
974.55 = A = C move
978.2 = 38.2% of the fib grid from top (1552) to fib target of 622 (632 is 61.8% retrace of 1974 bottom at 62.28 to top at 1552.87)
977 = 38% of the 1315 - 768 down move.
980 area = Bearish Butterfly Target
981 = 20 Month Moving Average
983.46 = 38.2% retrace of 26 yr bull market move of 62.28 to 1552.87 (what was support is now resistance - how the heck did I miss that in Sept. '01?)
984.3 = weekly cloes 10/9/98 (neckline)
988 = Wave 5 target for up move since March
We have had three months up to a downtrending 20 Month Moving Average
We have a 5 year Head and Shoulder DISTRIBUTION pattern.
We have the most redlined overbought indicators IN THE HISTORY OF THE FREAKIN' STOCK MARKET (relative to the past 5 years)
Write this down:
If the market trades up to 975 with a low TRIN and a low PC ratio wait for a short signal using the 15 minute chart. Stop above highs. If stopped out, continue to short using the 15 minute chart. If the market moves ABOVE 990, wait for signal on 60 minute chart OR daily chart OR discontinue shorting altogether.
If the market bolts up to 980 area within the first 30 minutes of trading with a very low TRIN and low PC, Short using the 5 minute (or even the 1 minute) chart for entry. Stop above highs. Continue until above 990.
This area is the lowest risk short entry in the past 2.5 months. Above 990 DO NOT SHORT. Below 980, DO NOT GO LONG
The risk reward scenario for bears is fantastic at these levels. A realistic target is 625 for shorts. You are risking 5-10 points for 350 points.
I agree 100%.
Throwing on a short position as soon as I see a stall for more then 10 minutes. We haven't had a large gap opening in over a month. I think its a perfect set up for the gap and crap. If it should for some reason keep running up I think we would have a correction at least back to where we were Friday close within a few days. It's my opinion it would be a lower risk trade.
One of the things that would make me a little hesitant would be to see the Fed come in with 10-15 billion then I may sit back and watch for a bit.
Once 5,000 people sign up, they vote to see which state they all move to en masse to take it over and show the world what small, non-intrusive government really means.
I'm all for it.
Desperate people do desperate measures....Al Green has his overswollen nuts in a VICE...without a doubt, the majority of Bears will be blown to smitherines....simply said....regroup and reload .....VICTORY is NIGH..they may win the Battle yet LOSE the WAR.....there is NO BULL MARKET that commences at these levels....NOTHING more than smoke and mirrors, like trying to squeeze into an overloaded Elevator...just step aside and let the last victim in.......
Mark-this is difficult for me as I have bailed this guy out in the past (it's in the archives) but I now do suscribe to your thoughts on merciless-it's just too damn pat -we swing to a high and out of a puff of smoke he rides-sorry mercy-but like mark I think you are a plant. trade Safe!
FWIW, I like reading about the successes of fellow stoolies. I also like reading your posts as well as coboy's, marks, end's, merciless and others I'm too lazy to type.
As for merciless being a plant, I'm not convinced. However, I would encourage him to post his dongs here before he assumes the position. No one really expects the market to go straight down (although I wish for it every day), and I like reading a rational argument as to why a dong play might be way to go short term.
The overall objective is to make money and have fun, right?
Haven't seen so much charged emotions and outright anquish around stoolville since late March/early April of 2002.
Bulls were near the end of their "March Madness" then.
Just remember, "This time its different"
BTW, great "no whining" avitator, reminds me of my ex!
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."