Night Stool Weakend Edition
26 replies to this topic
Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:05 AM
Excerpt from Dr. Bontchev:
Another useful set of indicators for intermediate- to long-term trading are the so-called Bullish
Percentage Indexes. Each such index indicates the percentage of stocks in a given set of stocks
(exchange or index) that have Buy signals on their P&F charts.
As you can see, I have further smoothed the indicator with a 20-day EMA and have drawn
(somewhat arbitrarily) overbought and Dover Sole levels for it. It is supposed to be traded like this -
Buy/Cover when the indicator crosses above its 20-day EMA after having fallen below the Dover
Sole (green) line; Sell/Short when the indiector crosses below its 20-day EMA after having rised
above the overbought (red) line.
Other possible strategies include buying or selling when the indicator respectively simply crosses
above the Dover Sole line or below the overbought line; using crossovers of the 20-day EMA with
the two horizontal lines (buy when it crosses above Dover Sole, sell when it crosses below
overbought); and so on.
Note that you can move the overbought and Dover Sole levels further apart, if you want to get
signals less often and catch only the more important tops and bottoms.
Using the NASDAQ-100 BPI
Another similar indicator is the NASDAQ-100 BPI. Since it covers a much smaller number of stocks, it
is much "spikier" - i.e., it is more prone to making sharp moves between the overbought and Dover
Sole levels. Here is a chart of it that I use in my market analysis, complete with the corresponding
20-day EMA and overbought and Dover Sole levels, with a 3-year chart of QQQ above it for
Get thee to Dr. Bontchev's TA Forum
Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:39 AM
As we noted at the time. Dear Abby knows how to call a top.
Vroom, Vroom, Vroom, Let's Go Back to the Boom
Monday December 2, 4:19 pm ET
By Stacey L. Bradford
THE AUTUMN TECHNOLOGY rally has left some Wall Street strategists tingling with optimism. They're
starting to wonder aloud if the Nasdaq is finally ready to make its much-anticipated comeback.
One grande dame of investing believes this rally is indeed sustainable. Goldman Sachs's Abby
Joseph Cohen put what's left of her once-sterling reputation on the line last week, telling investors
it was time to start loading up on select technology companies. Brave words, considering the many
false starts we've seen over the past 32 months.
Did she say Boom or Broom? Article
Now this is what I call Market Timing!
Posted 15 December 2002 - 01:56 PM
John Murphy's Market Watch 12/13/2
FALLING DOLLAR PUSHING CRB HIGHER... One intermarket principle that has stood
the test of time is that a falling dollar pushes commodity prices higher (partially
because commodities are priced in dollars). Charts 3 and 4 show that the rally in the
CRB Index since the start of this year started with the peak in the dollar around the
same time. Both have been consolidating for the past few months. If the dollar
breaks down, the CRB Index will most likely breakout. Chart 5 shows why an upside
move here in the CRB Index would be very significant.
FALLING RATES HAVEN'T HELPED STOCKS THIS TIME... The next two charts compare
long term rates with the S&P 500. Normally, they trend in opposite directions. Falling
rates normally coincide with rising stocks -- rising rates with falling stocks. And that
was the case -- until 1998.
Good article and charts on the relationships to watch
Posted 15 December 2002 - 02:08 PM
UPDATED DECEMBER 13, 2002
Someone Should Have Noticed.
More proof on our claim that pensions will be the major story of the year ahead was
found in Long Island Newsday's coverage, courtesy journalist Tami Luhby. As
shown in our chart, pension fund managers have accomplished a long term about
face from bonds and into stocks. This shift has effectively taken pensions from a
relatively riskless affair to a speculative venture. As we have stated in our
newsletter, there is always a time and place for stocks, but the time is not always in
the present and the place is not always in pensions.
As explained by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn in Barron's, "At IBM, the company plans to
contribute $3 billion, split evenly between cash and common stock, by year-end.
Based on IBM's assumed rate of return of 8.5% on its pension assets, that
contribution would yield a $255 million ($3 billion multiplied by 8.5%) decrease in
pension expense next year. That, in turn, would translate to an equal increase in
operating income next year over what IBM would have earned without having made
the contribution." As a result of an underfunded pension, IBM will "make" more
money. If the logic of such a circumstance escapes you, rest assured it escapes us
Alan M. Newman, Editor HD Brous & Co., Inc.'s Crosscurrents
Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:21 PM
S&P 500 with price oscillators
If you got 'me smoke 'me. Yo Greg check it out. Got me a Meta.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:57 PM
It's the chart above making the thread to wide. You can resize on metastock.
Both the Dines Book, and Metastock are available in Doc's booksteor, stoolfans.
Many tanks to rich for hs yo! man! work!
If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!
Posted 15 December 2002 - 10:39 PM
It sure is cold this time a year. My gas and electric bill came in at $200. I'm gonna see if I can get me a couple a bear skins in the mornin'. I got my sights set on three in particular.
Posted 16 December 2002 - 01:48 AM
December 15th) The 9-week crash cycle did indeed spook the market and the Dow Jones industrials have now lost about a quarter of the gains it posted during the remarkable run-up in October and November. For the past couple weeks now, traders have been saying that what the market needs most is strong economic data to confirm the current recovery. Friday they got just that -- and stocks fell yet again. We still expect some positive action this coming week (week of December 20th) by the 64-week cycle. But this should be viewed as a bull trap because some of our indicators give now bearish signals. The short selling by NYSE members surpassed public short sales and the oscillator of the Wall Street Courier Index is in bearish territoy. The OEX call/put ratio is outright bearish and the Large Block Index shows also too much optimism by institutional money managers. You should also bear in mind that the market is technically still in a downtrend. We have prepared a monthly chart of the S&P 500 for you in our Charts of Interest section. Commodity traders should take a closer look at sugar; commercial hedgers and large speculators are short and only small traders are long like never before. This is an extremely bearish scenario.
Posted 16 December 2002 - 02:19 AM
Well crap, he come de ramp.
Fucutures have recovered significantly, nas down less than a point and SPX down about 2.
Of course I'm caustic!
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