Bear Season Opens Next Week
40 replies to this topic
Posted 15 December 2002 - 02:39 AM
I think it helps both psychological and technically to look at shorting stocks and going long the PMs as a single play. They are attempts to protect one's acquired wealth from the attacks upon it. Do not feel sorry for those who take the opposite stance to your trades. If you're wrong they win and if you're right they lose. So it is, so it will always be. Someone was happy to make the trade, probably even thought they were getting a deal. What of the people who sold you your miners when they were dirt cheap. I bet you don't shed a tear for them.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 02:55 AM
Gold is it.................. Wait until Japan trumps Shrub in the next period of the currency devaluation hockey game. Bank of Japan just goes click on the mouse and poof,instant fiat money buys a another load of crap real estate construction stock from the commercial banks and the yen comes down another notch. What'll Shrub do to counter that? This could REALLY get interesting! Gold and silver and "things" will be the only thing left! Currency trading in this game with 100 to 1 leverage like Livermore did in bucket shops with stock could be VERY interesting.
The only "growth" may come from massive immigration like Canada where more people to consume things and pay taxes will be the order of the day. Highly unlikely for the U.S. to implement a massive immigration policy. Closed borders seem to be their preference during this "terrorism" retaliation and fear and loathing of "FURinners". Add 3% to the population [if the majority of those have a decent stock of personal wealth] and there's instant growth. It's the only positive I can see for growth to occur. Funny, I never hear about that from anyone, anywhere, except the Canadian Feds.
PS Kyoto protocal will be ratified in Canada Monday morning. Window of opportunity to pick up oilsands companies like Suncor if a panic sell-off occurs. Nothing like a little "uncertainty" to create cheap entry points. Then later Shrub and Saddam drive the oil price through the roof and suddenly a little environmental protection expense looks trivial. Worth keeping an eye on anyway.
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 15 December 2002 - 07:37 AM
Of course Japan might be needing protection from North Korea now that it has fired up its reactor. So Japan will think twice long before hitting the button. You don't think all this Bush talk about "the axis of evil" and finding scuds hidden in a ship bound for Yemen was for nothing do you? This is all a ploy to get the Japanese ready for a collaspe in their economy due to a strong Yen, which will, of course, keep them from buying too much gold or selling their holdings of US bonds. They will feel better when they see yields going up - much better - and they won't sell. And then one day, overnight, the Yen will become worth about 1/2 a US copper plated zinc penny instead of .0083 where it is now.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:40 AM
After a big drop itís always wise to cover and look for a 50-point pump on the Nasty. Looking at Doc feedometer there is a good chance we head down while fed is draining then the pump will come. If bond yield continue to rise and stocks keep dropping then the manipulation is not working. Bond and stocks will be trading as it was historically. Which is going to kill the market next year. I bet Bush will fire Easy Al next year.
Gold has not broken out yet. One would expect gold to rise only on the death of housing bubble, as it will create the foundation for the Banking collapse. Buy gold only if u believe there is going to be one hell of a banking collapse. I would prefer to buy some physical gold as an insurance policy. Gold shares are where u would use your gambling money on.
When the Housing bubble start leaking then we will have a foundation for the gold bubble. New year will bring some good news for the gold.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:59 AM
I must point out any significant drop in the dollar will hurt many country in the word as they have replace gold and brought dollar as a reserve currency. Sinking dollar with stinking economy dollar as reserve currency going to hurt many central-banking fools, in their pocket.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:51 AM
Yosh, I'm with you about being cautious on gold (short-term) here. However, please note that several of the gold sentiment indicators are consistent with the September top of gold - not with the excessive June top yet. So, it is not inconsistent (is this a greenspanism?) that gold might go a bit higher before topping. Still, caution here is certainly warranted. I, too, didn't expect the breakout of POG above the June highs to come before the next year - so, yes, one can say that it was a bit premature.
Feed, why do you say that we didn't have a breakout? That lowest horizontal line on your chart is at 326 - and we did break about that:
Posted 15 December 2002 - 10:25 AM
What happened to my post? Ah, my crap server no doubt!
Yes, I wanted to point out to Fool that his graph was from Dec 6 and a lot had happened since although his time frame there is quite large.
I also said many people are going to get hurt and invited him to review my Hewey chart over at the outpost but since this has been deleted it will have to wait.
The rest I can't remember.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 10:33 AM
re the NYSE specialist data, is that the normal release of the 2 week delayed data, or is this something new? Do you have a link to that?
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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:11 AM
Thanks - ThorAss
Only thing is we need a confirmation that we have a breakout, and then we will head higher. Boyz will not just let it go up without a fight. Best thing to do is buy the dip.
Gold is standing at 5 years high so we do have a bull market in gold in an early stage.
Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:24 AM
technically gold looks more than bullish, multi year bottoming process and now breakout, confirmation needed of course.
usd/jpy should go up a bit once it tests uptrendline around 119.50, once it makes a 50% retrace of the recent downmove it is time to load up the truck with short usd/jpy because target for the comming downmove is 100 or even below
eur/usd is a bit tricky, but at least there is no significant downmove ahead, maybe consolidation after it reached 1.03/04 which it can make early in the comming week.
usd/chf gives a clearer picture, once 1.44 is taken out, there is room to a monster downmove to 1.30 and beyond.
so this all considerd, gold, stocks and forex it seems like as there is big trouble ahead for stocks. Maybe wait for the comming 10-13 cycle upmove to top out and then go monster style short, maybe with biggest postion ever taken in whole life.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:37 AM
Like SG says, don't try to out-wit or overgame Mr Marke, especially the jams.
Just spot the intermediate term buy/sell signals. We just had a monster of one on Dec 2.
That's it. Done!
Stay short until the next one develops. We're far away from it now.
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