Bear Season Opens Next Week
40 replies to this topic
Posted 14 December 2002 - 02:13 AM
lettuce c if Mr CrawFURd is right, FURst, Yosh.
methinx a bit more down beFUR up, sez HRFF. He's (CrawFURd that iz) unusually pessimistic, imploring people to pray and whatnot.
Robert Burns FUR da bullz FUR the holly-daze?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 14 December 2002 - 07:05 AM
You make several valid and interesting points and no one has been beating the Scam week Santa Claus rally drum louder than I but now things to me are starting to look a whole lot rosier even near term. I think for the sake of a shallow pullback, I do not want to leave the train. If the scam merchants start to think that 2003 is going to be a repeat of 2002, then Santa may only be bringing gold this year. Seasonals suggest miners down, broads up but that could be reversed this year. I'm sticking it out. As for the currency component of the gold move, I guess selling your miners and moving into Euros or Yen is a play but the $. It ain't Dover Sole yet not by a long chalk.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 09:02 AM
Thor, I always hold a percentage of my position in miners, although I trade it among different mining stocks depending on circumstances. But it would be nice to fetch me a few bear skins for the coming winter months. I've got my eye out for one that looks like this - . Have you seen him in the woods of late?
Posted 14 December 2002 - 10:58 AM
The wealth destroyed doesn't have to go to the shortsellers. The market value of the assets you were holding declined. That could happen even if there were no shorts on the assets you were holding. Assets decline in value mostly because the longs want to sell.
It seems to me that most investors (the sheep) don't understand the relationship between money and stocks. I always hear coworkers talking about I got X number of dollars in their 401k account. I just laugh because I know they are 100% invested in stocks which means they actually have no money at all. They should be saying "I got 345.678 shares of Fidelity Magellan Fund". This would be a more accurate statement.
Another thing, don't ask the sheep what the PE ratio or dividend yield is of their Fidelity Magellan Fund. Complex thoughts make them angry.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 11:45 AM
good point MAXX.The wealth destroyed doesn't have to go to the shortsellers. The market value of the assets you were holding declined. That could happen even if there were no shorts on the assets you were holding. Assets decline in value mostly because the longs want to sell.
The thing when i really laugh my ass of is when the sheep say "look, now as the stock is cheap, i buy more, so i load up the truck over the years, the more shares i have of a specific stock the richer i am", ahem, ah, and what if the price of that stock just goes down down down and never comes up again?
What strikes me most: Over the years the sheep look after every single percent digit they can have more for their normal saving account, they say "wow, now i get 3.5 instead of 3.4 percent for my savings", but when it comes to the stock market THEY TOTALLY FREAK OUT !!!!
They buy for thousands of dollars idiotic stocks, if it goes down they dont sell, they lose 20, 30, 50, 70, 80 and more percent of the money they have put in into the stock market and then when you tell them they must sell it they dont do so and say "no, it is just to cheap now, cant sell it, i will hold" so then for example we look at infineon (chip producer), the sheeple did buy it for 60-80 in early 2000, now it is at 7 and we had 30 as somekind of support, well i would bet my ass on it that the stokc never ever will make it above 30 in the future. So the sheeple lost a hell of money with that stock.
The stock market is somekind of a casino, if one doesnt understand that he will be dead sooner or later. Remember that scene in the film "casino" with de Niro, when they clobbered this guy in the fields to death? Well he thought he makes the rules and he is smarter than them, but after all they fornicateed him up. That happens when people do things which they shouldnt and when they enter a arena which is dedicated to DA BOYS! The whole stock market is DA BOYS land, it was, it is and it will be.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 14 December 2002 - 12:03 PM
I think the the Boyz have seen the light and now see dollar devaluation as a way out.
Americans won't buy Gold no matter how much the dollar gets trashed. It's been beat out of the mass psychology -- it's the very last thing most Americans would ever consider.
If the Euro or Yan started to drop you'd see alot of Gold buying over there as you did last spring during the "yen experiment" where the Boyz "let's see what happenz da yen drops." Eurpoeans and Japs went thru a little conflict called WWII where Gold was the only way to retain yo wealth.
The results of da yen experiment were a decided disaster. Old japanese men started pulling up their sleek new Maximas in front of Gold dealers and walkin with big old bars of the yellow stuff. Uncle Al must have been shagrined at that site.
You gotta admire those Japs. They're filthy rich and they ain't gonna take any shit from the boyz either.
Americans on the other hand will sit idly by as the dollar drops 30 maybe 50 % all the while Clinton News Network spewing out the party line that a weaker dollar or good for you. Sort of like when you get a cold and go to the doctor and mom takes you by the pharmacist to get yo pills and good ole' mom buys you a big milk shake.
What mom doesn't tell you is that the sugar in the milk shake will take far more years off your life than the cold.
I doubt that there was ever a period in history when things were as bullish for Gold as they are now.
You've got the host country of the world's reserve currency being the most financially derelict and in-debted place on earth.
You've got a Presidential election coming in 2004 -- only a year away til New Hampshire.
You've got a general perception of deflation (whether true or false it's hard to tell) and the associated political problems.
You've got the son of a President who was booted out of office because of a recession. And the old man's ass kickin didn't start will Willy Clinton it began in New Hampshire with Patrick Buchanon.
President's are alot like Pavlov's dogs. They have a real good memory of things that hurt and things that feel good.
Losing an election doesn't feel good.
This baby (the US economy) is about to get the floodin' of $$$ of all time.
I think we'll easily be at $500 ounce Gold by next summer.
From the TA guys I've heard $500 should be a good resting point for awhile. It'll be major resistance similar to the $300 level.
And no I don't buy all the GATA crap and conspiracy theories about the world coming to an end if Gold gets above some magic level.
If you ask me GATA is a bunch of stupid goons and anything they say or do has little effect on anything anyway.
Yes I do beleive the whole US economy and dollar will completely collapse but we're at least a couple of years away from that happenning.
Get ready for the Great Dollar Experiment --- it should be a real success !!!
Posted 14 December 2002 - 03:56 PM
Sorry, no way to multiply, only Al can do that. I guess I am now suppose to believe that markets go down in a hurry with nobody on the short side - yeh, right. Even some a ya'll just got blowed out by big Al and da boyz on the last ramp. When I lost 30% several years back it was because I got in while it was being pumped in a bear market rally, near the top. Nobody was buying at that point. The boyz and the shorts were the only players in the game at that time. They simply cut off the money flow, sold a few shares real cheap and down she went. Short selling means you borrow something from someone that he or she precieves to have a certain value, generally without their knowledge, and then when it ends up being worth the POS that it is you give it back. You cannot possibily gave a damn about anyone who works and trys to save money for retirement by buying stocks when you sell short. Spare me the BS about how it is some how justified. It's dog eat dog.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 04:53 PM
I think you've got a valid point Yosh, things might play out as you suggest. Going haevy here one way or the other could be fatal to one's financial health.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 05:04 PM
See Capitalism below.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 14 December 2002 - 05:10 PM
Short selling requires an uptick. Short selling does not force prices lower. Lack of demand is what cause prices to decline.
The inverse is true. Excessive short selling can and does cause markets to rise violently. He who sells what isn' his'n, must buy it back or go to prison.
If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!
Posted 14 December 2002 - 05:14 PM
Of course the stock market is dog eat dog.
I like to think of it as the giant rollercoaster. Up and down and the participants are riding it up and down, so I might as well enjoy the thrill ride down, which is far faster and the whole point of riding it in the first place. If anybody could locate Bill Cosby's "Roland and the Rollercoaster" on the internet give it a listen and substitute "stock market" for "rollercoaster" as you listen to it. Priceless fun.
Shortsellers are essential to market balances and always have been, and always will be. Joe average six-pack better have a margin account where his brokerage allows shortselling or he is doomed, eventually. How about 'dem apples! The well-heeled can short but poor Joe average can't? Nothing fair about that! So the rich get richer and poor Joe wonders where the fruits of all his hard labor went. All I can say is poor Joe better get on the ball with Mr. Market or he's Korean barbeque.
Gold? Benefiting from nothing more than "the sounds of SILENCE" in this transitory period between oNeil and Snow. Until manufacturing biased Snow is officially approved by congress this void of silence regarding dollar "policy" is gold's moment in the spotlight. So yes, I do believe gold's recent spike is entirely currency related.
Verbal yapping about "strong dollar policy" is noticably absent during this transitional period between Treasury Secrataries and currency traders are taking the path of least resistance, which is "Dollah is Frasier!" until some official flapping gums and lips say otherwise. Of course, "Dollah is Frasier" means an equal and opposite reaction in gold because, as we all know, GOLD IS MONEY! It is merely a matter of time before more and more people realize this, or more appropriately, REMEMBER this!
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 14 December 2002 - 05:20 PM
what goes on my nerves monster style:
it would be perfect if these hammerheads would make their end of the year rally and of course the first week of january "ya know, pesnion fund money and so" monster upmove and then beginning in second week of january the pig would start to rollover, but exactly at that time the 10-13 week cycles does bottom! damn!
doc, what can we do?
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 14 December 2002 - 05:21 PM
If gold is money, how's come the gubmit won't take it in payment for taxes?
Posted 15 December 2002 - 01:33 AM
Yosh, I am tilting your way. I sold my gold a tad early last week. I did chart the break out. But I am way to much of a short term holder to hold through any blips.... So, as far as gold is concerned there will be a pull back.
What I am really watching are the stock index volumes. Notice how the volume was dimenishing all last week. To me that indicates no institutional interest.
So, I will be watching volume very closely next week. A substantial increase in volume will indicate institutional interest. They may be holding back because they may not have a lot of money left to through at the market. However there is a lot at stake and I think they will make a big push before year end. Will they wait until after option expires. I do not know.
Many stocks are now at short term critical support, 38% retrace, 20ma on weekly charts, near 50ma on daily charts. Daily Regression channels near bottoms.
If price just falls, may God help the Bulls, This time I believe we are truely teetering on the edge...... How long can the markets teeter? I do not know.
Did anyone catch the NYSE Specialist chart Friday from very bearish to bullish in one day. What to heck was that about?....... a fluke, someone manipulating the chart? for real?........very queer!
Keep your eyeball peeled.............
FWIW..... " If everyone knows about it, it ain't worth knowing"
Posted 15 December 2002 - 01:55 AM
I wouldn't sell the miners. I don't expect gold to go back under $330 either. I hold a core position all the time. You never know. I made 14% on the short side of the Qs in less than a month. If I would have had that money in the miners I would have made 25%!
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board