Bear Season Opens Next Week
40 replies to this topic
Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:45 PM
I don't like the action in gold. It seems to me that the move was premature - too soon. I don't see the followthrough I expected to see. There is a possibility that da boyz let it up for a headfake. The Yen is strong and so is the Euro; for which cause I consider a spike in the dollar as at least possible. It is also possible that the markets could rally next week, pull back a bit, and then move back up before or into early January. I closed my short positions today - looking for a gap up Monday. I'll hold most of my miners as insurance, although whiplash is possible; in which case I'll buy a few more, otherwise I'll go short again at what appears to be the next top. Other than the miners I am not taking any long positions. Sorry to have to bring up this bad news, but that's the way I see it for now.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:55 PM
Shabby Jo Colon would beg to differ.
"By many measures, 2002 was a surprisingly good year.
The Dow should jump 28%, from 8448, where it is now, to 10,800.
The Standard & Poor's 500 will do even better, rising 29%, from 891 to 1150."
Does she gargle with bourbon?
Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:57 PM
As the winter solstice approaches, many bears will have to hibernate. But you know some bears will not.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:57 PM
The administration is now telling us that they can't support the dollar (re: Dr. Snow). Has anyone stepped up to say so - nope.
That is what happened yesterday with gold rocketing.
Shrub has to pull out all guns to get people back to work with manufacturing since our economy is too heavily service oriented. Can't get manufacting with a strong dollar - they finally figured it out.
Today the bonds got croaked.
And Yosh doesn't like the action?
Bonds down, dollar down, CRB up, interest rates will go up and we got deflation is tech.
Sounds glorious for bears and golden bulls.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster
Posted 13 December 2002 - 10:12 PM
Sorry fellows, I mean I only don't like the action for the short term. I have no doubt that the longer term trend is still down. But Al and the boys got to make money some how. If they can't make it off of the longs then they just might as well get it from the shorts. Bonds can pull back a little further from here without too much ado. A little spike up to 4.4 on the yield could easily result in a rally
Posted 13 December 2002 - 10:13 PM
I am not convinced yet... I thought friday would tell me something... and it did, have to see what Monday brings... If gold doesn't go down soon the "spike buffer" built into the derivitives will breach, how long the POG has to stay above the skunk line or where the skunk line is, is anyone's guess. Head fake or Earthquake? I like the earthquake but I thought about the head fake right off the bat...
"Wall Street, never will you find a bigger hive of scum and villiany...
...we must be cautious" - Holdie Long De Goldie
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 13 December 2002 - 10:56 PM
I have to confess anyway that I am neither bull nor bear. About 3 years ago I lost about 30% of my investment to shortsellers (like some a ya'll), and at that time I didn't know anything about shortselling. In fact I never even heard of it. And I can tell you I was a bit angry to say the least. So at that time shortsellers were were worthy of death as far as I was concerned. So I made an effort to understand the markets, money, banking, etc. And now I find myself doing the same thing I was angry at other people for doing. So what can I say other than it is a sick world. But what can I do? Going long is no different. Anyway, I got my money back And who knows, maybe I might get a little interest from some a ya'll
Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:26 PM
Abby: "2002 is looking better than one expected because look, da Boyz haven't thrown my fat ass carcass in jail yet, borkers aren't swinging from lamp posts, and we only have to pay a dinky little fine for all the trillions we sucked out of dumb-ass sheeple during the bubble. Things look GREAT! Now, buy it up so my firm can dump this crap stock we're stuck with!"
Yosh, I woke up at noon Pacific time, after staying up almost all night captivated by gold's action and smiling, had a coffee and a puff, and sold off my Queerlogic and KLaxative putz I bought on Wednesday before the close. KLaxative almost doubled my money in the half week. Queerlogic not quite as good but still over 50% in a couple of days. Small bets in gambling fund. Still have some December other crap I'll let ride for Monday with a wait and see attitude. Wrote em off long ago and may make something decent yet. Great week! I'm worried the afterhours continued slide may be the last leg and as you say, next week is a whole new ball game. Cycles are favorable for continued slide but with options, since I'm fairly new to them, November's disaster taught me to take some off the table while ahead. These three day swings with the shorter cycles are most impressive price movements in the options game. Those swings I want to focus on. Great winter fun! I'm finding that I'm hitting good peaks for entry and I might as well take the profit while favorably ahead and against the crowd while it's still sliding. Limit orders where the tape runs into my order instead of me chasing the tape. I love this game!
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:27 PM
Yosh, lighten up, relax. For now just buy BEARX and forget about it. You'll be able to ride right through whatever crap goes on year-end, if any. Think past the BS and immediate noise and picture yourself sitting on a huge ass gain by March. You'll look back and say "I can't believe I was worried about that year-end BS, look at it on the chart, an insignificant pimple in the big picture"
Its how I'm playing it for now and will go aggressively short individual issues once it becomes more evident.
You know damn well long is the wrong answer...
Like Doc says follow the trend.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:35 PM
I'm not worried about anything, I'm not fearin' any man, mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord!
Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:41 PM
First, I don't believe in the FEED nonsense. They're pumping all they want now and its doing jack.
Ah, but you are nervous and rightfully so if you are trading that Rydex monster of a fund. So instead the alternative is not to trade it and sit in cash? How about settling for something more moderate just for now like BEARX and then after the New Year switch over to Rydex Venture.
It's up 7% from the Nov 29 low and you can sleep at night. Something is better than nothing.
Gap DOWN on Monday.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:48 PM
For me it feels good to be on the right side of the trade for the right reasons...not too mention gaining a few sheckels. I feel no guilt in seeing gold rise. I don't feel the least bit bad about owning some Pru Bear fund.
I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling nervous about what seems like a premature shot. That's what it is supposed to feel like. Do I think the war is over like Sinclair does? Hardly.
Some of you may envision myself or some of the other hard core bears in here as rubbing our hands with glee over the death of the economy. That's hardly the case. The only satisfaction I gain is from knowing that what I started smelling back in 1999 was right and that my instincts were correct. I have a lot of doubts about what the future has in store for us, but enjoyment from watching the implosion is not going to be one of them. I have a business to try and surf through this mess. I've prepared the best I can and even that may not be enough. I think there's going to be more than just a little luck involved.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 01:19 AM
You are far from alone Yosh. Having had a near death experience in miners last June, I will never let that happen again.
And hey, I didn't make this mess, it would be irresponsible to not attempt to earn a living and provide for the family with what you know will happen. The bastards that engineered where we are now and will come out smelling like a rose in this life, are the ones who will pay in eternity.
Posted 14 December 2002 - 01:33 AM
I don't see gold making new highs in Euro and Yen. How much of this is currency related?
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