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#16 wndysrf

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 05:43 PM

Summation turned up again, McClellan back over zero.

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNYSE.html

Will this madness ever end??
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#17 brian4

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 05:49 PM

Now wasn't today really something-the Friday before Memorial Day in the new Bull Market-WOOF-WOOF! This thing looks like the last rites should be administered. It is so overbought and lethargic, like the drunk hanging on to the lamp post slowly losing his grasp and readying himself for the face plant on the pavement. I loved the INTC shareholders meeting where the shareholders voted down a resolution to expense options. The reason-well -they said then the company wouldn't have any PROFITS> isn't reform frickin wonderful! Trade Safe!

#18 MrHanky

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 05:53 PM

they still closed this turd over "support levels"

8600,1510,933

next week will be interesting especially in the bond market.

Nothing


#19 wndysrf

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:03 PM

Lance Lewis thinks the top is in, and we roll next week...

"As I said yesterday, I suspect today’s rally may mark the end of the bounce, and next week could see a resumption of the move lower, as the major indexes play catch-up to stocks like WMT and HDI. Selling continues to be labored, and there are still the occasional roman candles in some of the bulletin board trash names. The big cap names, however, have all rolled over for the most part. The little stuff always implodes last and confirms the top, so we’ll want to watch for the Internets and bulletin board stocks to be smoked next week."
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#20 GregFokker

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:15 PM

Hey Mark, have you ever read "Revelations" in the Bible? I'm not a Bible thumper, but it's worth a read, particularly now, and particularly given the action of the world's merchants and the sick Amurkan econony.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#21 GregFokker

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:20 PM

Jimmy Rogers in Andorra

Posted Image

http://www.jimrogers.com

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#22 dumpabuck

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:21 PM

Cashin saying "the next 30 days are crucial" as end of quarter and moment of truth for '2nd half recovery' prospects draws near.

#23 wndysrf

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:42 PM

You think the short sellers have problems now?

You think the market is volatile??

Check out some of the Doug Noland archives:

Week ending March 31, 2000:

It was a tumultuous week in the financial markets. Throughout the technology sector, selling turned serious this week. The NASDAQ100 was clipped for 6%, decreasing its gain for the quarter to 19%. The NASDAQ Telecommunications index declined 5%, the Morgan Stanley High Tech index sank 7%, and the Semiconductors 8%. Hardest hit, The Street.com Internet index slid 13%. The small caps suffered as well with the Russell 2000 shedding 6% this week. And illustrating how volatile the marketplace has become, yesterday the NASDAQ100 swung 8% between intra-day highs and lows and today it was 5%.

Week ending April 7, 2000:

It was certainly a wild one; a truly extraordinary week in the equity market that saw stocks and indices get whipped around in historical volatility extremes. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index, for example, began the week at 1182, traded to a low of 965 Tuesday and closed today at 1223, up 27% from Tuesdays lows and 4% for the week. The Semis have gained 74% for the year. The NASDAQ100 began the week at 4398, traded as low as 3525 on Tuesday and closed today at 4292, 22% off Tuesday’s lows and down just about 2% for the week. The NASDAQ100 has a year-to-date gain of 16% and a 52-week gain of 96%.

Week ending April 28, 2000

It was another volatile and tumultuous week for US financial markets. NASDAQ enjoyed a sharp rally with the NASDAQ100 jumping 8%, pushing its year-to-date gain back into positive territory and 52-week gain to 77%. The semiconductors surged 14%, increasing its 2000 gain to 66% and 52-week gain to 216%. The Morgan Stanley High Tech index rose 6%, increasing its year-to-date gain to 6% and 52-week gain to 91%. The Street.com Internet index advanced 13% and the NASDAQ Telecommunications index 8%. The small caps also had a strong showing with the Russell 2000 rising 5%.

.....................

I wonder if the short sellers knew that if they were patient, and stayed short for the next 30 months, huge, fantastic gains were to be had, despite the incredible snap back rallies...
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#24 BAREister

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:49 PM

Rogers has a new book about his trip out GregF Was supposed to be out the 13th
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#25 chiefywiefy

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:50 PM

Wndysrf, you'll love this quote from Japans Koizumi. I just started cracking up when I read it. This one I'll save.


Koizumi told a news conference with Bush that "I'll tackle deflation (and) I shall never allow a financial crisis to occur." :lol:

#26 wndysrf

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 06:54 PM

More archives from Doug Noland.

Here's one from early 2001.

This is another "unconventional measure" to be indoctrinated by Al Green.

Don't laugh.

It could happen.

Noland describes the securitization of margin loans:

Imagine a world where “free markets rule,” and the government’s mandate that stock market margin requirements be dropped as a relic of an era of needless regulation. Security firms, anxious to reduce the “down payment” necessary to purchase equities to 30%, begin lending up to 70% against a stock’s market value. This new buying power propels the stock market higher, creating incredible profits in the margin lending (and investment banking!) business. Equity Mae (a new government-sponsored enterprise with an implied backing from the U.S. taxpayer) begins buying, packaging, and selling securities backed by margin loans, “guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest” on these securities.

Those behind this idea quickly see that “this could really go somewhere!” As stock prices rise and great interest develops in margin borrowing, Equity Mae sees even greater opportunities. Soon Equity Mae begins purchasing margin loans from the securities firms and “warehouses” them on its own balance sheet. Why not “play” the wide spread between the borrowing rates paid by the government-sponsored enterprise and the much higher margin rates? “It’s as close as it comes to free money! Plus, we can now issue stock and get a ‘market multiple’ on this ‘spread.’” Besides, this is “just what the doctor ordered,” as the bull market in margin lending is increasingly creating liquidity concerns for the securities firms. The securities firms, of course, throw all their considerable weight behind Equity Mae. There is, however, one sticky issue that keeps this arrangement from really reaching its true potential. Since Equity Mae is a GSE, there is this pesky “rule” that to protect the interest of the marketplace and the taxpayer, only margin loans with “equity” of at least 70% are to be purchased.

It took the ingenious securities firms no time at all to come up with a fabulous solution. Why not have these margin loans “insured” by a group of MDI (margin debt insurance) insurance companies? “Brilliant,” was the one word heard most often at the Washington headquarters of Equity Mae, “and we can just call it equity and no one will know the difference.” The securities firms are absolutely “tickled” by the prospect of unlimited liquidity for margin lending, and management at Equity Mae sees immediately how the implied backing by the U.S. taxpayer could be used to amass stunning riches from their millions of stock options. For the securities firms, they would really prefer to lend their customers up to 95% or even 100% of stock market “equity” - it’s “great business!” Not only is it good for profits it does wonders for the bull market. What a great deal! And although it wasn’t discussed much, the securities firms and their aggressive clients (who like to take big leveraged positions in MDBS - margin debt-backed securities, as well as Equity Mae IOUs), relish at the thought of always having Equity Mae around as a “partner.” Best of all, there is an unspoken promise that whenever this margin debt bubble finds itself in jeopardy, it only takes a phone call and Equity Mae will come into the marketplace as an aggressive buyer, more than happy to pay “top dollar” to support the market.

This is simply the greatest arrangement ever concocted for the stock market, with unlimited purchasing power available to investors and speculators alike. The securities firms can now dump all their margin loans to Equity Mae, trading them for “AAA” rated Equity Mae IOUs, and, better yet, providing additional purchasing power for higher yielding junk bonds, credit card and asset-backed securities. With unprecedented credit availability, the economy booms like never before. Consumers accumulate “wealth” previously unimaginable. They greatly “benefit” as rising stock prices provide huge sums of “equity” that can be easily “cashed out” through the booming market in stock market margin loans. The intoxicated consumer spends beyond his income, but “who cares” with stock market “wealth” increasing every year.

This arrangement is particularly a boon to the credit card industry, as over-indebted consumers always have stock market “equity” to fall back on. Knowing this, the credit card companies open the lending spigot to everyone. Plus, “liquidity” in credit card securities is great, with Equity Mae now buying every margin loan in sight! The securities firms make huge profits in selling credit card-backed securities, as well as all the various securities now marketed by Equity Mae. To make this all even better, the government provides tax deductibility for margin interest, so who wouldn’t benefit from taking out margin loans? Over time, Equity Mae begins to lend to inexperienced stock speculators and even those that have “blown up” their accounts in the past. But, of course, it’s in the “public interest” to provide affordable borrowings so all Americans can “invest” in the “American Dream.” And although the consumer and stock operators are basically “tapped out” of all their “equity” in the stock market – relegated to using this source as consumption levels already surpass income - that just provides more opportunities for the MDI companies to insure even larger loans. It’s good for their earnings and stock prices and certainly fine by Equity Mae as it endeavors to maintain extraordinary growth. The market doesn’t miss a beat.

During the fantastic boom, this arrangement provides absolutely stunning “wealth creation.” These new enterprises are celebrated for their financial genius, and many (especially Washington politicians) wonder why this was not done long ago. The high-profile CEO even begins to state publicly that “Equity Mae is in the risk management business.” The skeptics are dumbfounded. With all the hoopla, the stock prices of Equity Mae and the MDI companies surge on wonderful earnings growth and projections for this to continue forever. They become true Wall Street darlings. Even greater “wealth creation” is found in the credit market, where Equity Mae turns stock margin debt into “risk-free” securities – transforming billions of high-risk margin loans into wonderful “money” that even the most risk-averse could not be happier to hold. This is Wall Street Alchemy at its finest. As the stock market booms and Equity Mae’s balance sheet explodes, the few skeptics see very serious risk in this “scheme.” “What happens to the security brokers and Equity Mae if the stock market tanks?” they inquire. “No problem,” says management. “As you can see, there is rarely a loss suffered from margin lending. Sure, there were some losses years ago, but our systems are much better now. Indeed, our earnings have never been stronger and risk has never been less. Just look at our current credit losses. This proves we have mastered ‘risk management’! After all, there is tremendous equity – upwards of 40% - providing us an impenetrable cushion.” But the skeptics counter, “there have been no losses specifically because this unprecedented boom in margin lending has fueled historic stock market inflation and an unsustainable bubble. Of course, there will be few defaults and even fewer losses in an environment with sharply rising stock prices. Wait until the downturn, that’s when you will see huge losses and there is absolutely no doubt that your current allowance for losses will prove grossly inadequate.” Equity Mae, expanding its lending like never before, responds that it is protected against loss by MDI insurance, as well as other sophisticated contracts they purchase directly from insurers and the securities firms. “We use the best models.”

The skeptics, however, have a big problem with this arrangement, seeing it along the lines of a classic pyramid scheme! “Only as long as the securities firms lend aggressively, the MDI companies blindly provide the necessary insurance, Equity Mae expands credit recklessly (purchasing the loans from the securities firms), and credit market investors (at home and abroad) continue to purchase Equity Mae IOUs, will the stock market bubble remain levitated.” “It is absolutely unsustainable,” claim the skeptics, “and this reckless scheme is only providing a dangerous mechanism guaranteed to bury the unsuspecting margin borrowers in unmanageable debt as soon as this bubble bursts.”

At the very late stages of the boom, the explosion of Equity Mae holdings becomes THE KEY source of fuel for what has developed into an historic bubble economy. Importantly, Equity Mae’s massive purchases of margin loans lead to extreme distortions to both the financial system and economy. The economy overheats and stock prices diverge wildly from any semblance of reasonable valuation. Strange things start happening, from energy shortages to a sinking currency. And, while the general appearance of the boom remains the same, there are some very ominous developments just “below the surface.” For one, the hopelessly “stretched” stock market speculator aggressively “cashes out” of significant amounts of “equity” after this latest big run-up in prices. In order to fund this huge margin debt “refinancing,” the MDI (margin debt insurance) companies provide huge amounts of new insurance and Equity Mae absolutely balloons its balance sheet with “refinanced” margin loans.

The skeptics are amazed this scheme has lasted this long, but there is no doubt now that Equity Mae is “drinking the poison,” ballooning its balance sheet with loans that will soon be very suspect. As the bubble comes under intense stress, desperate moves provide one final “last hurrah” where the increasingly nervous stock speculators are allowed to fully “cash out” at “top dollar.” It does keep the game going a little longer, but the consumer, having fully spent his income, taken on huge borrowings, and “cashed out” his equity, is at the very end of his rope. Soon confidence in the entire scheme wanes and the inevitable stock market decline commences. There are huge speculator defaults on the mountains of margin loans, and the first to get “blown out” are the MDI insurance companies. After all, Equity Mae basically ensured their demise by fostering the stock market bubble and providing the means and encouragement for the speculators to “cash out” at the top of the market. Many do ponder that “it really did seem almost too good to be true at the time…” Even at only somewhat lower prices, the equity cushion is gone and defaults usher in the inevitable bear market. The thinly capitalized margin debt insurers are quickly insolvent, and all eyes quickly turn to the behemoth Equity Mae. Not long after, the world witnesses a spectacular collapse for Equity Mae, sunk by mountains of margin loans and guarantees on margin loan-backed securities, especially those created from the last of the great refinancing booms. While the devastating drop in its stock price is painful for many, the real damage is done in the collapse in the market for Equity Mae IOUs and margin-backed securities. The entire market for margin debt securities “freezes,” creating an historic systemic crisis. “But what happened to the 40% equity that you spoke of Mr. Equity Mae CEO?” asked the Congressman. “You have certainly created one hell of a mess, and we would like an explanation as to how this could have happened!”
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#27 wndysrf

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 07:02 PM

Piledriver:

Just when you think it can't get more extended.

This one is an all time record.

Check out this blowout chart:

http://clearstation....=4432562&Refer=
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#28 Pee Brain

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 07:41 PM

US buck...look at the weekly, its perhaps accelerating into a crash :lol:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$USD

Hey, maybe it will.

Meanwhile MTV Spring Break continues unabated and in full swing...I love it.

Here sheepie sheepie, keep filling up the vat with sucker money so I can tap into it...silly fools! :P


PD,

what a great chart - the policy makers at the FED must be really excited. the farther down it goes, the cheaper our exports become! ;) happy days are here again.

oh BTW, sorry to tell you i wont be taking that trip to europe this month, cant afford it. im thinking of going to paraguay instead - :o where Uncle Buck still has some clout.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#29 The End

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 07:57 PM

Some people on prubear are still bears.

Even Mannfm11 agreed with my count.

http://www.prudentbe...&snsa=A#M115334

Damn it all to Hell!
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#30 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 23 May 2003 - 08:05 PM

It should be interesting to see how boolish the fun manager guests are on "Wall Struck Week with George Washington" tonight. I managed to catch the tail end of the exchange today between Bill Seidman and Jimmy Jones Crammer. Pretty funny stuff when Cramer doesn't have his crackhead yesman seated next to him espousing the same bullish sentiment that he has. Seidman seemed absolutely repulsed by his bullish ranting. :lol:





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