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#106 PileDriver


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:25 PM

Budda's urine hosing references had me in stiches. The whole piece is classic, a true keeper. :lol:

#107 slinger


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:06 PM

Be careful with unhedged shorts. The short term cycle oscillator is crossing up. We may unfortunately have a rally during this upcoming scam week. I'm one of them scalpers and don't hold overnight, so it won't affect any of my positions since I'm not holding any. I just don't want to see my fellow bears in pain.


By the way, great interview Doc! I didn't know Bearman's butler had such a young sounding voice. :P

#108 Jorma


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:35 PM

Everyone should rightly be concerned about scam week but the last quarter ending triple witching show in Sept. had the market sinking hard all week. Come to think of it we were in approximately the same place in the intermediate term cycle then, Which should hardly suprise, it's a quarerly cycle. Seen in that light the chances of a melt up short blow out has to be seen as small. Be wary, but don't worry.

The rising short interest by commercials in the COT suggest that continued downside would not be seen as a disaster by some big boys.

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#109 wndysrf


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:51 PM

Nikkei now headed for the longest losing streak ever.

Will it turn around?

From Kevin Min:

"SPX option dollar volume hit nearly $1 billion on Friday, which makes the second time in the past week we've seen such unusually heavy dollar volume. Over the past year, there's been a clear correlation between light SPX dollar volume and market tops, and heavy dollar volume and market bottoms."

"The Dow is now down 5.9% (at its nadir) since the end of November. That's the worst drawdown for the month of December in twenty years. Prior to this year, the worst intra-month performances for the Dow came in 1998, 1987 and 1982, when the Dow fell as much as 5.6%, 5.5% and 5.4% respectively. In each prior case the Dow ended the month in the plus column. While the current 5.9% 'seasonal drawdown' isn't too out of line with historical precedent, we shouldn't see much additional downside if the traditional year-end rally is going to manifest."

"This coming Friday is what's known as 'triple witching' given the expiration of options, futures and options on futures. Historically, the S&P has an 85% success rate at closing higher in the days immediately following triple witching, indicating there's a bullish bias on the Monday and Tuesday prior to Christmas (12/23 & 12/24). Also worth noting is the market's strong seasonal tendency to rally in the 1-2 days immediately following the Christmas holiday, with 11 of the past 13 years seeing higher prices after the break. Not to mention that December 24th kicks off the last five trading sessions of the year, which are historically positive for the market given the 'window dressing' effect. All of which suggests that the period beginning at the end of this coming week (12/20) and stretching until December 31st should be a bullish time for stocks."
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:58 PM

Bizarro-G....agree wholeheartedly that the Aussie goldmining scene is a complete shambles. I did a post on that very subject some months ago. The main problem is that very little exploration has been done in decades. I worked in the mining/exploration industry for 20 years. However there is a lot of gold in the ground that has not been viable to mine and a huge amount yet to be discovered. This could all change in the future depending on pog. In the meantime, I agree, Aussie gold mining stocks are ok for a trade but not investment. That's why I think bullion is the way to go. I disagree with you regarding the gold pool. An actual amount is bought and has to be delivered on request. No shrinkage. The Mint has an excellent reputation. It would be far more risky to take delivery and be burgled at a later stage.

The market today is giving forth another screenful of red. This is becoming the norm lately and who's complaining....yet to see any real capitulation though. Golds are flat to slightly higher; punters expecting a pullback maybe. Banks/insurers well down.. Can't help feeling that it won't be straight down from here until Christmas so I might take some profits today, see how it pans out..

#111 swingbear


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:59 PM

Sunday night ritual: Din-din done, lurking stool, monitoring footures. Asia thoroughly red. Still holding URPIX in IRA, maybe see more red in U.S. Monday. Had a couple of false alarm flushes last week. When is the main event anyhow? Still asking myself if I'll have the stones to hang on for the ride.

Dreaming Buddha bear piss dream, jumping up and down on that bad boy's bladder. Probably get a better fix on Monday piss potential following the reaction to the traditional 3 a.m. jamjob.

Even if red Monday, certain to be at least one DCB day during OX olympics -- I'm thinking Tuesday or Wednesday. Merlin is looking to Flagpole Friday.

Merciless -- love to hear that bwahahahaha -- you still holding the physical while preparing the next pork roast?

#112 buttugly


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 10:06 PM

The only thing that worries me about Adam Hamilton's theory - about bear market rallies having NEVER recovered after a drop of more than 7% - is the NEVER bit.

This market is like nothing ever before. So anything is possible. But don't get me wrong - I am short big time.
And looking to get shorter. Particularly if Scam week
throws up a final opportunity.

Late last week entered two more shorts MERQ & TER with tightish stops - on the back of Piledriver's discussions.

When you look around and see all the signs of conspicuous consumption - just remind yourself we are witnessing
the tail end of the "ROARING 90s" - which will go down in history as bigger than the ROARING 20s.

Trade safe all.

#113 slinger


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 10:44 PM

This is unlikely, but a possibility.

QQQ chart

On the other hand, if we get a nice continuation down the crapshoot, 883 looks like a possible target on the SPX.

SPX chart

Be nimble.

#114 sweefraapp


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:32 PM

"Not since the end of the war have conditions been as bad as today,"

#115 Guest_BEARDRECH_*

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:34 PM

Torah man, you can find the explanation of what a "weighted alpha" is and how BarChart uses it there.

I am not sure I understand your second question. The page I linked to simply lists all stocks in the NDX, sorted by their decreasing weighted alpha values. The actual weighting these stocks have as parts of the NDX does not enter into play in any way here. Or did you mean something else?

Torah man all i know about a weighted alephs is that around chanuka time  scamsters use it to cheat chanukah celebrants by putting it into  crooked dreidels--- beardrech

:grin: ps how do u separate quoted material fron ones own

#116 brian4


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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:49 PM

SWEE- re Germany the DAX is down 40+% yr to date! Trade safe!

#117 brian4


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Posted 16 December 2002 - 12:18 AM

Asia is red wall to wall and the SPX futures are five+ below fair value- red tide-Lock nLoad! Trade Safe!


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Posted 16 December 2002 - 12:28 AM


Costco will see and feel the effects but is in a better position then the traditional supermarket chains to weather the storm... I guess it boils down to their DEBT load or compound cost of existance... are they in hock up to their eye balls?

They are distributors and are highly scaleable...

Hyper - The musing about Costco is pure arm-chair analysis. I don't know Costco's fundaments, on books and/or SPE debt if any. I do know something of the grocery business sales volume is everything with small margin.

The Carter era gave us 'generic" no brand products where the consumer put quality second place to unit price - and small unit at that. I saw this in the late 70's. The consumer will be focused on whether or not to buy that additional apple in the tight food budget. You see, I don't believe it's Costco debt level that's important here, it's the consumer. Many more are going to be unemployed, under-employed, or accept pay cuts to keep their jobs. Since most have debt leveraged out as much as they could be before the income downgrades hit in full force, they'll be watching every dime they spend. There's no way that increasing segment of the population is going to pay a $50 membership fee out of their food budget of $300 per month, then load up on bulk packs of tuna, spaghetti sauce, pickles, etc using all of their cash flow allotment in two shopping trips. Nope, they'd head over to Wal-Mart and scour the local grocery store weekly specials.

#119 brian4


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Posted 16 December 2002 - 12:42 AM

Doubleflush-You are right on man-keep pushing! Trade safe!

#120 Guest_BEARDRECH_*

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 12:50 AM

stoolies Wustrie wuxtrie read all about it Market headed for decline untill it bottoms in june 2004--
As if we needed more cajoling about the markets inevitable decline--maybe;maybe for those doubting thomases needing a little rectal goosing i suggest you read peter eliades article on market cycles (GOLD EAGLE)wherein he cites the guy i been touting:a ucla professor by the name of DIDIER SORNETTE who with WEI-ZING ZHOU May have reversed the non-illustrious history of acedemic market calling started in the 20's by Irving Fisher--
Its an article lenghthy WITH EMPHASIS ON WEEKS OF BEARISH SENTIMENT PRIOR TO MARKET BOTTOMS and not For day traders or short termers but for nervously-insomniacal stoolies its better than melotonin and is sure to guarantee you a good nights sleep--
What eliades doesnt mention in the article is that SORNETTE teaches a course in CATASTROPHISM- :ph34r: :( :(

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