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#91 GTNWORSE

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:11 PM

Hey Guys,

Good morning. Nothing like a read of the stool, and the smell of napalm, in the morning to get one's blood flowing.
Reminding all of you that I don't know shit but I believe that the market will have a weak end of year/new year rally. A retest of the highs seems unlikely, but you never know.
Adam Hamilton is also one of my favorites, he has bee so accurate it's scary. While he is hedging his position a bit here, I believe he is not convinced the top is in due to the VIX still being somewhat neutral. That's how I read it anyway.

#92 DrStool

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:17 PM

I just moved buddhadopping's last post to a place of honor on its own over in Look Out Below. Buddhadropping's Odor to the Bear

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:22 PM

Torah man, you can find the explanation of what a "weighted alpha" is and how BarChart uses it there.

I am not sure I understand your second question. The page I linked to simply lists all stocks in the NDX, sorted by their decreasing weighted alpha values. The actual weighting these stocks have as parts of the NDX does not enter into play in any way here. Or did you mean something else?

Regards,
Vesselin

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:29 PM

GTN, you have misunderstood Hamilton's latest article. He is convinced that the top is in - despite the ambiguity of the VIX signal. The recent 8% fall confirms it, he says - never before has a bear market rally recovered off a drop of more than 7%.

Regards,
Vesselin

#95 brian4

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:35 PM

Speaking of the smell of NAPALM in the morning-Friday's Commitment of traders report shows the commercials (DA BOYZ) increasing their SHORT position on SPX by 16,000 contracts for the week-the small traders (SHEEPIE) increased their long positions-Here sheepie, sheepie, sheepie-gutting time! NO XMAS RALLY! Trade Safe!

#96 PileDriver

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:54 PM

GTN, also re-read his article on p/c ratio being better at calling tops and VIX better at calling bottoms. The former pegged Dec 2 as a major high. Besides, there are plenty-o other indicators that say Dec 2 was it.

#97 Bizarro-Greenspan

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:01 PM

HO,Ho,Ho,Oz,the land of gold.

The dumb wingohockingmoyamensings running yer country's gold mining industry have forward sold what,75% of the gold in the ground?

Oz,the land of fiat whores,is more like it.

Wait until the margin calls.Buncha spineless dorks down
there,must be the depleted ozone layer.

#98 Bizarro-Greenspan

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:09 PM

Aussie bear,yer gubmint is part of the problem.

Swim in their gold pool,and they'll anally probe ya,
right there in the pool.Meanwhile,you'll get severe shrinkage.

Take delivery,you got some slick weasels running yer
little gold show.

#99 Hypertiger

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:23 PM

Doubleflush


Costco will see and feel the effects but is in a better position then the traditional supermarket chains to weather the storm... I guess it boils down to their DEBT load or compound cost of existance... are they in hock up to their eye balls?

They are distributors and are highly scaleable...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#100 PileDriver

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:47 PM

as Brian mentioned before, from stockmarkettimer.com:

The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report shows that Commercial Hedgers sold some 13,700 S&P contracts last week, bringing their net short position down to -56,752 contracts. Large Traders are also net short -33,858 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +90,610 contracts being held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". Over in the Nasdaq pit, Commercials bought some 1,200 contracts to bring their net short position to -7,065 contracts. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money sell some 550 contracts to bring their net long position to +4,104 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better sellers than buyers in the S&P's for the last three weeks, shorting some 23,000 contracts during that period. Even more alarming is the net change in the Small Traders position, adding long nearly 25,000 contracts over the last three weeks. These are massive shifts in the net positions of these two groups, with the "smart money" becoming increasingly more bearish while the "dumb money" has become ever more bullish. One of these two groups is obviously wrong about the future direction of the stock market. Needless to say, large commercial traders didn't become large by being on the wrong side of the market.



#101 torah man

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 04:58 PM

Torah man, you can find the explanation of what a "weighted alpha" is and how BarChart uses it there.

I am not sure I understand your second question. The page I linked to simply lists all stocks in the NDX, sorted by their decreasing weighted alpha values. The actual weighting these stocks have as parts of the NDX does not enter into play in any way here. Or did you mean something else?

Regards,
Vesselin

when i looked at that page we were seeing the top 100, and there was a bottom 100 also shown, so i did not think these were the ndx stocks.

i found that later so i originally thought they were and wanted to know how the ndx number is derived, just the sum or are some weighted??

am i missing something about your original post pointing to the ndx??

#102 torah man

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 05:04 PM

Torah man, you can find the explanation of what a "weighted alpha" is and how BarChart uses it there.

I am not sure I understand your second question. The page I linked to simply lists all stocks in the NDX, sorted by their decreasing weighted alpha values. The actual weighting these stocks have as parts of the NDX does not enter into play in any way here. Or did you mean something else?

Regards,
Vesselin

when i looked at that page we were seeing the top 100, and there was a bottom 100 also shown, so i did not think these were the ndx stocks.

i found that later so i originally thought they were and wanted to know how the ndx number is derived, just the sum or are some weighted??

am i missing something about your original post pointing to the ndx??

i just saw my mistake, i ended up on a different page and then asked a question.

sorry.

great site for bottom fishing though, i will repeat the link for everyone again>

http://www2.barchart...ices Nasdaq 100

#103 slinger

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 06:50 PM

Here's a good site to find stocks to short. You can screen for chart patterns, fundamentals, oscillators, and other technical indicators.

http://www.marketscr...sp?chp=patterns

#104 brian4

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 07:42 PM

Earlier today BUDDA-posted one of the great rants of all time-DOC-was so impressed he moved it immediately to a place of honor in the Stool Hall of Fame. But I would suggest the significance of the rant was overlooked by all. Budda our color commentator-who daily reminds us of the power of DA BOYZ and GREENSPAM and their ability to levitate the corpse at will-has gone SHORT the market and LONG silver. BUDDA has said to GREENSPAM you wizened old plick you can't do it to us anymore! This is akin to Mark becoming a priest or the End closing his S&P straddle. This market is truly doomed! Futures just opened DOWN-Thank you-BUDDA-Trade Safe!

#105 The End

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:16 PM

The move down from the August high is an exact triple zigzag. Triple zigzag are corrective moves not impulsive or at least by G Neely’s definition. If you go back in my submissions, it is shown there. Of course, the wave endings can be manipulated to get a slightly larger wave three. However, that does not meet the requirement that one wave should extend. G Neely states that the extended wave should be 1.618 * the next longest wave. However, I am willing to accept 1.382 in certain circumstance.

In Elliott’s original work, the third wave was not allowed to be the shortest. One wave had to extend but as far as I can see, he did not define by how much.

Putting it all together, I suspect there is no alternative to the fall from August being a “B” wave.


The “B” wave having taken the July low out, suggests that the FLAT below the HEAD & SHOULDERS neckline is an IRREGULAR FLAT.

Neely describes IRREGULAR FLATS as common wave two formations.

I have labeled it as such, that is wave two in a larger three.


Zoran


-----Original Message-----
From: longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.edu [mailto:longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.edu] On Behalf Of the end Sent: Monday, 16 December 2002 07:37 AM
To: longwaves@csf.colorado.edu
Subject: Zoran's post of Dec 14, 2002



Great work!



I do have a question however. How can the move from the August high be a B wave when it is clearly a 5?

I count it as a B wave as well but, i have ignored the impulsiveness of it. Probably not a good idea. Your thoughts?

For people who look at e-waves and could not see anything but an impulse for the move from the august highs to the october lows.

This answer to me from zoran makes alot of sense.

It allows for us to be wave three.

The question know is where in wave three are we.

I believe we are in 2b of three with 2c to follow and then wave three of three down from Jan.ish to mid to late march.

You have no idea how i have been wrestling with the move which i called B.

I hope this helps my fellow stoolies. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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