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#31 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:23 AM

I do believe Hypertiger is correct also. Too many gaming the market. All are doing comparisons to 29-32 or 72-74 markets disregardind the grand experiment enviornment that we are in. They say (who are they? :P ) markets that overshoot to the upside tend to overshoot to the downside.

very well stated. "this time it is different", that cliche may prove wilder than our wildest dreams.

rv's are stakced up down here in damn near every storage faciility.

once in awhile they auction one off for back rent.

the trend appears to be building steam.

i too am curious about what to buy... i'd like to have an escape hatch, even if i drive it into the ocean.

think that's called a sailboat?

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:31 AM

"this time it is different", that cliche may prove wilder than our wildest dreams.

This time is no different. The Kondratieff winter takes averagely 20 years to reach a bottom. Anybody who thinks that this time it can do it in just 5 short years (assuming it started in 2000), is seriously deluding himself. In fact, this time it might take even longer than usual, because of the inflationary Fed policy.

Things are not as bad as they seem. They are worse. We won't get a fast crash - that would have been too good. We'll get a prolonged, painful decline, which will devastate both bulls and bears alike.

Regards,
Vesselin

#33 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:38 AM

This time is no different. The Kondratieff winter takes averagely 20 years to reach a bottom. Anybody who thinks that this time it can do it in just 5 short years (assuming it started in 2000), is seriously deluding himself. In fact, this time it might take even longer than usual, because of the inflationary Fed policy.

dunno vess, these waters have never been seen before... it may prove to be very differnet in scope. again it is a contextual arguement and not meant to be the sweeping generality as posted. "may"... the operative word...

Things are not as bad as they seem. They are worse. We won't get a fast crash - that would have been too good. We'll get a prolonged, painful decline, which will devastate both bulls and bears alike.

we'll all suffer, for sure, it's the ol "human condition".

Regards,
Vesselin

regards,

john


#34 Sphinxter

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:54 AM

This time is no different. The Kondratieff winter takes averagely 20 years to reach a bottom. Anybody who thinks that this time it can do it in just 5 short years (assuming it started in 2000), is seriously deluding himself. In fact, this time it might take even longer than usual, because of the inflationary Fed policy.

Things are not as bad as they seem. They are worse. We won't get a fast crash - that would have been too good. We'll get a prolonged, painful decline, which will devastate both bulls and bears alike.

Regards,
Vesselin

Yeah, I'm a bear when conditions warrant and I am as bearish as they come these days and getting more so by the minute. Family and friends have heard my chicken-little act and I, for the moment, have backed off of any further pronouncements. They know where I stand.

The question of timing of the coming 'event' (is it a wind-down or a crash?) is endlessly interesting to me.

So I have come to proscribe a range of probabilities to the outcomes and planned accordingly.

80% chance that this thing unwinds slowly and miserably as Vess describes. 2010 as a probable turn-the-corner date.

15% chance that, due to the debt loads of the US, it unwinds far faster and uglier than history would prepare you for. In as little as 2-3 years from here is my guess.

5% chance that some event like terrorism or a coordinated assault on the dollar by trading or political enemies makes this whole thing blow up in a most spectacular and unexpected fashion.

So for the 80% chance, I have positioned myself away from US denominated paper assets.

For the 15% chance I am in the process of selling the house and moving to a rental situation so that I can buy at better prices.

For the 5% probability I have 2 months of food on hand and a plan that the whole family knows about and understands.

To people who find this last bit irrational or nutty, I ask "do you have life insurance? Or house insurance?" The chance of a house burning down is less than 0.1% yet I pay dearly each year for this protection and would whether it was a mortgage requirement or not.

Putting a risk adjusted amount of capital against this perceived 5% threat is my response.

Once a boy scout always a boy scout, I suppose.

#35 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:57 AM

hey bro, we agree... i just have those probabilities flipped.

once a indian guide, always an indian guide...

something about smoke signals i guess.

:D

#36 DICK BUTTkus

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 10:01 AM

They have "faith" that the CBs and the feed can manage the coming crisis.


Moi? Where'd you read that? I actually think they will fail on a grand scale. It just may take quite a bit longer than you think. You got a specific date in mind, yobob? Just go on record with the year you expect this all to come down so we can get past this "it's imminent" rant.

#37 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 10:06 AM

Moi? Where'd you read that? I actually think they will fail on a grand scale. It just may take quite a bit longer than you think. You got a specific date in mind, yobob? Just go on record with the year you expect this all to come down so we can get past this "it's imminent" rant.

second week in june... due to an exogenous event is my timeline.

that is the beginning of the spiral.

on record in this forum.

#38 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 12:18 PM


Moi?  Where'd you read that?  I actually think they will fail on a grand scale.  It just may take quite a bit longer than you think.  You got a specific date in mind, yobob?  Just go on record with the year you expect this all to come down so we can get past this "it's imminent" rant.

second week in june... due to an exogenous event is my timeline.

that is the beginning of the spiral.

on record in this forum.

that or early next week... thinkgs are shaping up for a panic.

#39 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 02:20 PM

Moi? Where'd you read that? I actually think they will fail on a grand scale. It just may take quite a bit longer than you think. You got a specific date in mind, yobob? Just go on record with the year you expect this all to come down so we can get past this "it's imminent" rant.

I have to assume that you have faith otherwise you could not feel this was going to stretch out. Right now things are so far off the scale it is hard to believe they can stretch it much further. The dollar is already beginning to tell us where we are on the stretch-o-meter. Besides the Euro and the Yen we are only tipping down about 6% on a currency basket basis. Gold is the second canary. I told a friend not too long ago if gold holds above $400, that's last call. Time to head for the bunker.

As to the K-Winter, that's all well and good, but my reading indicates there are cycles 1 or even 2 magnitudes larger than the K-Wave. (think dark ages here) It's very tough to document because of the lack of data that goes back thousands or even hundreds of years. I happen to think we are in a cycle at least 1 or more probably 2 magnitudes larger than the K cycle. Think the fall of Rome and then remember we have been debasing our currency for 90 years to the point that purchasing power has dropped about 97%. Now we have a global system that is totally fiat. The only thing left with "value" is gold.

As to timing, only fools put exact dates on events wherein there are 6 billion variables. The real problem is the shit could hit the fan at any minute and there likely isn't going to be much warning. Hyper's previous 12-18 months from several months ago may prove to be about right. I think the 2nd half of 2003 is going to be a lot rougher than the first half has been. and I wouldn't want to be playing in the matrix too much in 2004. If you want to play chicken with a freight train, feel free.

#40 DICK BUTTkus

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 03:09 PM

As to timing, only fools put exact dates on events wherein there are 6 billion variables.


Thank you.

I like the way Sphinxter approaches the problem. Scenarios are envisioned and relative probabilities are assigned. Actions are charted accordingly. It's a plan built for different outcomes within the overall bearish picture -- which makes good sense given all the variables and possible interactions. Risk is spread in recognition of the uncertainties.

Selling the house, moving to an apartment and converting all available cash to gold ASAP . . . that too is a plan. You've acted on faith in your convictions. Bravo, Yobob!! Sincerely. Same to HyperTiger.

My only remaining question is why you need to keep protesting that the more moderate bearish courses of action taken by others are wrongheaded. If you are so certain of the rightness of your own decision, why not let quiet confidence be enough? Why the need to downgrade others?

#41 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 03:16 PM

Thank you.  

I like the way Sphinxter approaches the problem.  Scenarios are envisioned and relative probabilities are assigned.  Actions are charted accordingly.  It's a plan built for different outcomes within the overall bearish picture -- which makes good sense given all the variables and possible interactions.  Risk is spread in recognition of the uncertainties.  

Selling the house, moving to an apartment and converting all available cash to gold ASAP . . . that too is a plan.    You've acted on faith in your convictions.   Bravo, Yobob!!  Sincerely.   Same to HyperTiger.  

My only remaining question is why you need to keep protesting that the more moderate bearish courses of action taken by others are wrongheaded.  If you are so certain of the rightness of your own decision, why not let quiet confidence be enough?  Why the need to downgrade others?


too each their very own. at times, my best laid plans have gone up in smoke...

having spaced my the hangers in my closet 1.5"'s apart for far too many years, i can respect and appreciate the "plan".

unfortunately for me, my most thought out plans have been laid to waste by soemthing out of left field. and that is why i bent more towards going with the flow, trend or whatever you'd prefer to call it... simply put, mother nature's a bitch.

she's got a nasty curveball.

we have an obligation to one another, and that certainly does not include anyone telling anyone else how to go about living their life.

we all see things differently and that's what makes a forum.

i appreciate the posters here and although i may disagree with his or her take.

it is far better to respectfully disagree.

although i like throwing a few punches every now and then... it's my own bad form.

i just can't help myself, apologies in advance.

#42 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 05:26 PM

My only remaining question is why you need to keep protesting that the more moderate bearish courses of action taken by others are wrongheaded. If you are so certain of the rightness of your own decision, why not let quiet confidence be enough? Why the need to downgrade others?


Firstly let me apologize for my laziness in getting your handle wrong. Secondly if it came off as sounding like a downgrade, it really wasn't meant as such. I've been swinging the axe for over 3 years now with increasing emphasis as what I perceive is the tipping point draws nearer. I don't know exactly where that tipping point is and neither does anybody else with any greater accuracy from what I can determine. My sense is once that point is breached, it will be too late for anyone to act on a lot of matters. The other fly in the ointment is the very good possibility of some exogenuous event causing the tipping point to arrive instantaneously, which given the current global situation isn't much of a stretch.
Many more people read these threads than respond. Some read and act others read and discard. I feel it is in everyone's best interest to have the full spectrum of opinion and lately around here there seems to have been a lot of "tommorow will be like today because today was like yesterday". The gang of theives in charge are playing with fire in a gasoline soaked house of cards. You see a muddle-down scenario and I fail to see how it is possible. Yes Japan has, but the situations are not comparable at all. In fact try as I might I cannot find a decent comparison of our current situation with anything in the last 300 years. This tells me we are experiencing something either never seen, or seen so long ago that it is lost to time. This is one of the reasons I don't think this is a normal K-Winter. I think it is a K-Winter inside of an X or Y cycle of a few hundred years or possibly something that happens on a 1000+ year cycle.

As to converting 100% to gold.......sorry just not possible at this time. Owning a business that is cash flow intensive at times requires me to hold large amounts of cash for operating purposes. The bank generously rewards me with a 1% interest rate. This is the other dark side of Little Al's scheme that is rarely mentioned. The absolute destruction of income for those who want safe investmtents, such as CD's. This whole fornicateing thing is ass backwards. Punish the conservative and reward (or kill) the gamblers.

#43 phatbubble

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 06:30 PM

80% chance that this thing unwinds slowly and miserably as Vess describes.  2010 as a probable turn-the-corner date.

15% chance that, due to the debt loads of the US, it unwinds far faster and uglier than history would prepare you for.  In as little as 2-3 years from here is my guess.

5% chance that some event like terrorism or a coordinated assault on the dollar by trading or political enemies makes this whole thing blow up in a most spectacular and unexpected fashion.

So for the 80% chance, I have positioned myself away from US denominated paper assets.

For the 15% chance I am in the process of selling the house and moving to a rental situation so that I can buy at better prices.

For the 5% probability I have 2 months of food on hand and a plan that the whole family knows about and understands.

regarding exogenous events....the rub is that with every passing day/month, less and less is required for anything to BE that exogenous event. the oil ran out of the engine 20 miles ago - we're running on Slick 50.

FWIW, we sold our house, and as a byproduct of moving overseas now hold assets in multiple currencies. and i too have backstocked camping gear, survival miscellany, and 2 months of food. so if Santa Exogenous stays wedged halfway down the chimney, well, we'll use all this stuff anyway.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#44 DICK BUTTkus

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 06:32 PM

Yobob & jrmfl,

We've many more things in common than not, it appears to me.

In a way I think this attempt to predict when and how the end will come is like trying to predict the time of one's death. With advancing age we know the end draws nigh, evidenced by slower movements, loss of capabilities, developing malignancies, etc. Could happen suddenly, via heart failure. Or the body could respond to medication, surgeries and support mechanisms for another 10 years. Often even the best doctors can't predict it with any degree of accuracy.

I don't think anyone knows precisely when or how the world as we know it is going to collapse. The foundation has been cracking for decades, so we understand it's only a matter of time. How much time is a matter of guesswork. In the meantime, living gets harder.

Each of us should prepare for what we see coming according to our own perceptions and needs. It's good we have a forum to share our thoughts on that.

One thing I don't have a feel for is the "unconventional" measures that could be taken by the government. I don't think these are restricted to fiscal maneuvers by the Fed. The federal government has or can obtain the power to do almost anything it wants, ranging from creating jobs to nationalizing industries to closing borders to . . . you name it. Any powers it lacks will be ceded more willingly by a citizenry looking for means to escape the vortex of decline.

As general conditions deteriorate, options unthinkable now will gain acceptability. Globalism in reverse will take a lot of casualties. I'm not sure the United States will be one of them, however much it deserves to be.

Ineresting times.

#45 ShitEatingGrinner

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Posted 21 May 2003 - 06:49 PM

how about we get Bare's rapid rupture...depression--in the next year or two--followed by ten years of things getting even worse. That head and shoulders pattern on the Dow is massive compared to the '29 peak.

Thanks for the reminder that the debasing has been going on for 90 years, yobob. I forget that sometimes. How many emperors did Rome have past the point where they started debasing their currency? I have no idea, myself.



"sure claude, my house doubled in value in less than 3 years on "reason"."


my house has tripled in 5 years. ridiculous. I get a 10% bump every year on taxes. Bring on the deflation, mfers. Bring these prices down now! :P





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