Let's cut the crap
143 replies to this topic
Posted 20 May 2003 - 08:26 PM
Can one of you guys tell me when the time comes that I can buy a nice used sports car on the cheap. I always wanted one.
Posted 20 May 2003 - 08:52 PM
Always buy cars in the winter as a general rule. Genrally 10-15%cheaper.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 12:27 AM
its interesting you mentioned that. i was at SBUX this am and noticed all the beemers and the new VWs (jettas?) in the parking lot... i thought to myself that the Furner auto parts are gonna get pricey here in the future. intresting that BMW has some sort of maintenance plan now offered if you buy a beemer.
if you have ever spent time in a foreign country with a weak currency, you can appreciate what lies ahead. you see, nothing in our projections or psyche ever considered the USD turning into the peso.
hope bont can help out, but theoretically every country exploits their competitive advantage and equilibrium results via world trade.... what exactly are we gonna be exporting that will represent our area of competitive advantage - weapons?
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 02:12 AM
Ever think about a Cowasaki?
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Posted 21 May 2003 - 02:40 AM
Yes, weapons such as the depleted ethics, lawyer-tipped missile. Several variants exist, such as the CEO-tipped, economist-tipped, and (egad!) the multiple-Fedhead missile.
Isn't exporting weapons of mass destruction a war crime of some sort?
Edit: Hey! You musta been at MY starbucks.
Edited by AssMaster, 21 May 2003 - 02:42 AM.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 07:01 AM
believe february to be the lowest of low demand months for auto's.
walk in month end with cash on hand if dealing with a reseller.
private parties are always best.
you can scout on ebaymotors.com... or autotrader.com.
you'll notice wholesale prices dipping. i bought a 1995 miata with 18,000 miles on it for $7500.00 cash. 100% condition, as good as new. and that was a year ago.
they are cheaper still.
added some "flying miata" suspension tweaks, new wheels, dot approved rubber for road/track, rollbar, fancy gauges and new wheel sans airbag and i have a little lotus elan for not a lot of money. for a little more, you can have a viper eater... 265 to 320hp. it pulls 1.04g's on a 600 foot skid and gets 32 mpg at 75mph.
it's a "chick car" that will flat out embarass anything on the road to 100mph, if yer in to that sort of thing. if not, it's a great little handler/touring machine and if you're under six foot, very comfy.
new imports will no doubt begin to carry huge premiums as uncle buck continues his errant ways.
you may get real lucky and end up building 996 cabs here in the good ol us of a.
the "c" plan allows one car per 18 months and you pay 17% less... i may join you on the assembly line!
Posted 21 May 2003 - 07:38 AM
Used to love small sportscars years ago. Had several MGB's. These days, in this part of the country, sitting in a Miata gives you a nice view of the wheel centers of Ford Crew Cab One Tons and Cadilac Escalades. When you consider these people are slurping their coffee and talking on the cell phone while driving aggressively (proven side-efffect of truck/SUV ownership) the prospects of being invisible out there bothers me. Someday when fuel reaches $5 a gallon it may be safe to venture out in a reasonable vehicle once again. For now I stick to the Mustang GT and my Jeep Grand.....they're as small as I'm comfortable in and positively spritely compared to the average beast on the road.
As to when to buy. Wait like the vulture and start circling over your desired prey in about a year or so. Good time to develop your "short" list and start watching. Already the new car incentive mania (deflation) has destroyed the used car market and repos are accelerating. When they start stacking them like cordwood the bottom should fall out. My favorites are the Boxster or the baby Benz SLK. Both on the market long enough to create decent supply. Miata is a good choice for those wishing to minimize their investment.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 07:56 AM
yeah, it's a little uncomfy on the road with all these "bigfoot's".
fortunately it's squirty and is fairly easy to dodge the monsters.
braced it with hard dog rollcage, and many special undercarriage steel cutouts.
so now, these behemoths can drive over me... t-bone me and i'll more than likely be pushed out of the way or rolled.
it's a stiff little re-inforced brick.
i drive the eurovan on longer trips.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 08:23 AM
back on topic, morning rant:
in the church of the poison mind...
our central bank will more than likely cut the discount rate 50 bips to .75% and yet there will be less borrowing in aggregate than there was @ 1.25%.
look into the san fran & st louis districts, they were begging for a 50 bips reduction in march.
san fran's fed has carried a .50 bips discount to all other districts for many months.
the fed is losing credibility.
raise rates, deflation, cut rates, deflation... this trend has been shaping up for over a decade. it's all there in the data.
the artificial economy is being exposed for what it truly is... errant, incestuous and overly dependent upon the rest of the globe to meet our needs as americans prefer exporting inflated purchasing power to actually doing the work themselves.
nero's fiddle may well be a resurrection guitar as wage and price controls, a debased currency destroyed romeís middle class, agriculture was destroyed and commercial life damn near disappeared.
john snow's pedantic rants are simply c.y.a.
"a strong dollar is in the best interest of america."
then the hedge...
"the markets set rates competitively."
uncle buck is the largest derivative of all, the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.
from 1929 to 1933, prices dropped 24%. businesses and farmers went bankrupt.
the fed cut interest rates, but the economy didnít respond.
in the june of 1931, the discount rate was 1.5%; but prices were down 9%, making the price-adjusted interest rate just under 11%.
of course then, we were the globes largest creditor nation...
this time around, we are the globes biggest consumer of exogenous capital flows that are rapidly heading elsewhere.
to be sure, we are following in japan's footsteps and 50 basis points away from confirmation.
in late april m2 jumped $44.5 billion and m3 $55.4 billion.
the fed held $647.6 billion in government paper and foreign central banks hold $893.9 billion, those figures are from april's end.
we just completed the largest ever debt dump known to man... $80 billion more in ust's and corp's were just floated and can be added to those aggregates.
you can be certain the fed's number was up more. in fact according to their most recent stats, they own 12.5%+ of the securities markets up from 11% last report.
la cucaracha, stephen roach, believes the current account is headed for 6%-7% of gdp. at 6% foreigners would have to invest $2 billion a day & at 7% $3 billion a day. that don't jive with capital flows. outsiders own 45%+ of our federal debt which is headed to $7 trillion... are we simply going to default on ust's?
inflate or die, now more than ever as mark likes to say.
it's true, NOW MORE THAN EVER. sad, pathetic, but absolutely true.
how is any currency going to remain stable in this environment? i do not believe they can, they may adjust, correct and reach fair value... which is closer to zero than it is to par and that may be par.
we'll drag the rest of the globe down with us... we are the world.
xom, ibm, ge and msft are larger than the DAX & CAC... by market cap.
think about that... any question the stock market is not the economy?
paul volker reminded us 21 years ago after carter's sec. of treas. printed up a firestorm of dough for re-election... we then were served up 21% rates under volker.
doubt we see those again as the deflations tugs will be far too strong, but when adjusted to price, the effects will be far greater.
the housing bubble's alive and well and living on edge. the fed has managed to corrupt fannie & freddie, who's lending practices account for 25% of the expansion in mzm, with little regulation and "special treatment"...
claude raines assure us... " there is no housing bubble..."
sure claude, my house doubled in value in less than 3 years on "reason".
greenspan's take on securitization, swaps and derivie shenanigans...
"when concentration reaches these kinds of levels, market participants need to consider the implications of exit by one or more leading dealers."
whatever al. you are again, backtracking with respect to this timebomb.
notional values have more than doubled in less than a year.
$72 trillion to $147 trillion and with last months follies have no doubt begun to head north of $200. wmd's square up twice a year... march & september.
the $147 trillion was close of books on december 31st 2002....
it's interesting to note that derivie pirate #1, jpm, is owed $97 billion for "swaps"...
if that ain't another word for "counter party failure" then i'm a fool.
jpm's a few billion in the hole with this off balance sheet post enron accounting that was supposed to have been eliminated.
total assets $758,800,000,000
total liabilities $716,494,000,000
they are owned more than 1/2 the spread on assets...
something don't jive here.
the 10K, 10Q's and S filings are impossible to discern what in the heck is going on at jpm... it's like saying a miro's lifelike.
surreal painting of the balance sheet.
the derivie king is coming unglued.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 08:26 AM
looks like ol charley rangel struck back, appears he's pissed about that special committe vote in the wee hours before he was about to present the other side...
WASHINGTON (May 21) - Senate tax writers discovered they made a $70 billion error while calculating the cost of a dividend tax cut that is the centerpiece of President Bush's plan to lift a stagnant economy.
Lawmakers found the error as the chairmen of the House and Senate tax writing committees tried to reach agreement on a compromise version of the tax legislation.
House Ways and Means Committee Bill Thomas, R-Calif., said he and his counterpart, Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, were ''near agreement'' but wanted to see a detailed analysis of the cost of the framework. ''We've made some tentative agreements,'' Thomas said.
Democrats said the dividend tax mistake threatened to complicate progress on the tax-cut bill. ''It shows this was done hastily and not thought through,'' said Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont.
The error in the Senate's version of the bill will not be quickly fixed because Senate Democrats refused to give their consent, Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said Tuesday. ''It would have taken 60 seconds to make this correction, but they wouldn't give 60 seconds to save $70 billion,'' Grassley said.
The error means that a reduction and then temporary suspension of taxes on dividends paid to shareholders, which is contained in the Senate bill passed last week, would cost $194 billion, not $124 billion as previously estimated. The bill calls for halving taxes on dividends this year and would suspend them in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
anal cysts traced the $70 billion error to language that suspended taxes on dividends based on accumulated earnings. Lawmakers had intended to make the policy apply only to dividends based on the current year's earnings, meaning the tax cut would have been smaller.
The change pushed the cost of the Senate-passed tax cut to $420 billion, much more than the $350 billion limit that GOP moderates set to control the growth of deficits. Moderates in both parties hold key votes in the narrowly GOP-controlled body.
Spokesman for two of those Senate moderates - Republican George Voinovich of Ohio and Democrat Evan Bayh of Indiana - said their support may waver if the final tax package exceeds $350 billion.
Republican aides said they have considered counting $20 billion in state aid and $27 billion in child credits outside the $350 billion limit because the federal ledger considers both items spending, not tax cuts. That would bring the cost of the package close to $400 billion.
Bush had asked for a $726 billion tax cut, including a proposal to eliminate the double taxation of corporate earnings by giving shareholders a break on dividends paid out of already taxed earnings.
Under pressure to deliver the tax cut to the president before Memorial Day, negotiators worked late Tuesday to start narrowing the differences between the House and Senate bills.
''We're making progress,'' Grassley said. ''I don't think it is our intention to get it wrapped up tonight. It is our intention to make a lot of progress.''
The House and Senate agree on most elements in the bill, such as accelerating income tax cuts and reducing taxes for married couples and parents.
They treat taxes on investment income differently. The House opted to reduce taxes on dividends and capital gains to 15 percent, down from top rates of 38.6 percent and 20 percent, respectively.
The Senate voted narrowly to temporarily suspend taxes on dividends. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, said Tuesday the Senate version was flawed and would ''open the doors to corporate America actually paying their employees salaries through dividends with no tax impact.''
Rep. Charles Rangel of New York, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, came to the same conclusion and warned it could cause a significant reduction in payroll taxes paid to Social Security and Medicare by the employer and employee.
Rangel asked the anal cysts on the Joint Committee on Taxation to consider possibility of tax avoidance when analyzing the policy. He said corporations might also manipulate the policy to eliminate capital gains tax liability or taxes on interest.
05/21/03 04:22 EDT
The Associated Press.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 08:46 AM
JRFML, these are the issues that DICKBUTKISS and Bontchev can't seem to rectify with eveyday life. They have "faith" that the CBs and the feed can manage the coming crisis. I don't. The pending implosion in the world of big finance will resonate right down to everyone, everywhere on the planet It's not something that will be confined to the pages of the WSJ, it will affect everything in ways that are impossible to calculate. You better know your bank very well. With banks these days, bigger may not be better. The larger they are, the more likely they are involved in this toxic sewage. Big or small, know your bank. Don't rely on paper or worse yet digital entries. Peachy-keen on the surface - one payment away from sudden death.
Posted 21 May 2003 - 08:56 AM
50% in phys au & ag, 50% in miners...
i may get blown up on the miners... then again i may not.
but one thing is certain, we are in uncharted waters and no one knows the outcome.
i do not pretend to, but instead draw some scary conslusions based upon the facts.
as doc says... "ignore them at your peril".
i keep a strong faith in my fellow man, as many of the posters here embody kiplings "if".
some more than others.
i enjoy these spirited debates immensely, it's good for our souls bob.
best to you,
Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:12 AM
finding capital stool far more interesting than previous haunts. the bear's bear tend to hibernate here.
i think soxbear over at prubear said that once.
prubear has a plethora of good posters.
i guess the context of the daily chatter wore on me.
the focus is too fragmented for my liking.
it's better here for me, far better.
and in no way am i knocking my old bear buddies there. there are some very exceptional posteres on that board.
would enjoy more of them dropping by here every so ofter and contributing.
was time to move on and i am glad i landed here.
these types of threads "drop off" too quickly over there.
find this kind of forum far more productive and worthwhile. at first i was a little lost with the general outlines, but now it makes perfect sense.
guess you either love it or hate it... i embrace it now.
back to getting my house in order...
Posted 21 May 2003 - 09:18 AM
How about the RV business? In Sept04 me and the misses will finally be free as the youngest will be entering college. We would like to purchase a used MH (27-33 ft) and give it a try. Any suggestions of a make/model short list that we should be on the lookout for? I'm assuming these RV's will be stacked in the desert next to the planes.
I do believe Hypertiger is correct also. Too many gaming the market. All are doing comparisons to 29-32 or 72-74 markets disregardind the grand experiment enviornment that we are in. They say (who are they? ) markets that overshoot to the upside tend to overshoot to the downside. If that is indeed going to be the case, people need to realize that the market at its peak traded 4 standard deviations above historical values. Does that suggest if we "overshoot" to the downside the market could go to trading 4 standard deviations below historical values? That is anarchy. Sitting and comparing markets did not allow one before hand to predict the extent of the markets rise and it won't be done on the downside either. I share your frustration as family and friends now just brush me off as a doom and gloomer. "You've been saying we are going into a depression for two years and it hasn't happened...yada yada...
What am I going to do with gold and silver? I have depositors insurance."
Anyway, I'm still trying to figure out the best way to protect my paper assets in the 401k. Get half of it by withdrawing and paying penalties and taxesthen buy physical? Or put it into a physical gold fund. I'm thinking I don't have too much time to decide.
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