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Japanese Experience Could Never Happen Here


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#1 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:16 PM

Latest comparison (updated to Nov 8th) at bottom of the page


http://www.moneytide.com/hans/spnk.asp

#2 Stutz

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 05:54 PM

810 for xmas? I love it. :P

#3 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 04:13 AM

" 810 for xmas? I love it. "

I doubt that. The part about 810 by xmas, that is, not that you wouldn't love it :)

But good chance of 700s possibly as soon as late March and maybe 600s by mid year.

Patience, patience, cycles to the downside don't have a lot of time left before they'll turn up and bully boyz will look at the charts and see the retrace of the Oct 10-Dec 2 rally as something to buy into.

Just my 2 cents worth.

#4 DrStool

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 10:10 AM

I decided to try this on my own.


Hmmmm....

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  • nicknas.jpg


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#5 DogBoy

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 12:12 PM

"bully boyz will look at the charts and see the retrace of the Oct 10-Dec 2 rally as something to buy into"

We'll likely see them run it up the old flagpole one more time.

But it'll be the last time in my view.

#6 Goldmember

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 12:36 AM

Very interesting chart Doc. Japan seemed to have settled out after the post-Gulf War recession and Clinton-Rubin-Uncle Al started tinkering, ensuring U.S. consumption of Japanese goods. The wild drop-off in March 2000 is a bit of an eye-opener as well. As far as what the U.S. market can do at this level where Japan settled out ten years ago, sort of, I just don't see any catalyst for global consumption of U.S. products or any new business cycle to take up the slack. This looks more and more like a global dead duck!

Japan may end up the lucky ones in all this if the Japanese central bank uses the fiat computer mouse to print money and buy up the worthless stock in crap companies the banks hold, giving Japan the edge in the global currency devaluation game. First goal scored by Japan when they announced 150 yen to the dollah would be desirable. The U.S. just scored and tied the game with the Treasury Secratary move. Score=1/1. Who scores next? Japan merely goes click on the mouse and buys more crappy real estate stock off the banks and devalue the yen some more. Christ, what a game! Krudlow was mouthing off on Crapvision Friday about how easy it is to do Uncle Al's job, click to Feed, click to drain. Japan clicks the mouse and buys up more crap stock off the banks. Back and forth in the currency hockey game........Fx Fox may be onto something with Forex gaming. And gold.......... get some while you can stoolies!

Clickety Klack! We's runnin right off the track! Look out below!
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#7 ThorAss

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 01:40 AM

Great chart Doc,

What I never really noticed before but often wondered about was what the heck was Japan doing while the rest of the world was having the Bull Market of all times. Well they were forming an 8 year bull-horn. What was at play was upward pull of world economics mixed with the downward pull of their domestic problems abd deflationary pressures. The sharp rise in the manufacturing base of China in conjunction with the end of the bull market (the 2 are not unrelated), then led to the continuation of the primary trend. It is unlikely that this will be repeated in the US without a visitation from aliens. There is nothing that is going to pull this one up like in Japan until the bear plays out. This to me is why the Japanese scenario from here on out will be less comparable.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#8 BAREister

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:05 AM

Anybuddy know if what the averages here and the GAWDALMITEYDOLLAH are tracing out INSYNC with MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S prognostica-SHUNS???

Tia.

He had some outrageous projections FUR the Yankee DOLLAH ass HRFF recallz.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#9 BAREister

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 03:12 AM

The symnetry twixt the S&Pee/Dowager and the Nicked-DIE r, heretoFUR ™ to this observer, purely coincidental. The DIE was cASSt ™ 'long' ago when the parabolic went vertical. It WILL retrace to a similar extent of Tokyo's now-crippled average. The BARE doubts if it will mirror it much FURther going FURward ™. There's a deep rooted tendency in followers of the markets to draw hysterical OOOOPS!!! historical ANALogies. History rhymes BUTT rarely repeats, eggsactly.

Lettuce c what The Fates, Three decree, FUR thee and me, shall we?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#10

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:05 AM

TK, the author of this article assumes that the Nikme has bottomed. I don't think that this is the case. Accordingly, if the comparison holds, the bear market on the ass-and-pee should continue well into 2010.

I think that Doc's comparison is more correct. See also this article which has comparison charts that pretty much agree with Doc's.

Regards,
Vesselin

#11 Hypertiger

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 08:10 AM

Japan's economy is the real new economy... But is still doomed they are less aware of "whats coming" then we are... But the U.S. is more doomed than them. in 2003 it will become far more apparent Unless the FED is going to buy the excess or "Bail out" the unemployed. I've studied plenty of "Paths" to their retarded conclusion and I'm sure they have a computer program and a supercomputer telling them their next move but this ain't sim city. moment of truth could happen at any time...

Pssst I'm sure it will be apparent to everyone here before anyone else... :blink:

Or when is next week going to show up....

Every day is one step closer to "Haywire"
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#12 ThorAss

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 09:14 AM

Ha I gnu it, Hypertiger is just BareAsster run thru a spellchecker. :shocked
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#13 DrStool

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:05 AM

Here's how I think it will play out. Our new rallying cry.

Five seventy four in twenty o four!

Hmm- seems I can't pull up the chart at the moment. Will try again later.

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#14 DrStool

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:47 AM

Here it is!

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#15

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 12:02 PM

Uh, Doc, that last chart assumes that we'll go down in one straight line - and, as we all know, the markets just don't do that. ;)

More likely, once this cyclical bear is over (probably the next year), we'll enter a prolonged sideways-down action that will look pretty much like Nikkei's and will be good for traders, because it will have a few quite nice swings. Then the final down leg will start.

Time frame - all this should last till 2010 at the very least, although 2017-2020 seems more likely to me.

Regards,
Vesselin





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