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Stretched Out Again


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#31 strikerm3

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:06 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Donít try and play around with a wounded or a sick dog. When its bite u donít know if itís got rabbies and how painful it may be. If u want more pain please don't let me stop u.

dont understand that. U mean going long is wrong? SG target just an idea....dont think it hurts anyone to hear an elliot wave take, I see Naz 1610 resistance,no waves necessary, that would be huge on the stocks Im in!!!

Pile, why are you so focused on the S&P?

Cuz unlike Nasty it has less upside risk and more downside reward once the bowels start moving again :lol:

Always consider risk-adjusted return. Somebody who used to be on this board had no clue to that fact.

Just compare RYTPX vs. RYVNX and tell me who is less likely to get burned and who is more likely to come out ahead in the long run w/o incessant market timing and trading which by the way leads to errors and losses.

I think that certain person who was once on this board can attest to that fact as he experienced them himself, I'm sure.

Stop micro-timing the market and start spending more time on making good picks. :lol:

thanks for reply.....makes good since.

#32 roidrage

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:08 PM

SPX is only down ~33% from all time highs, its got a bit of catching up to do.

catching down too :grin:

#33 MrHanky

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:10 PM

could this be considered the retest on lighter volume?

I don't see much volume except in csco and nvda.

Nothing


#34 Slothrop

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:12 PM

could this be considered the retest on lighter volume?

I don't see much volume except in csco and nvda.

Indeed, hanky.

#35 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:12 PM

Scottcardiff:

Not one white candle on the VXN since the March lows.

In fact I can't even find a decent one in the last 50 trading days.

Notice that the NYSE % Record High has been pinned to the absolute top every trading day in May.

Absolutely no letup in new highs.

Alan Newman's Emotional Intensity indicator must be completely blown off the charts........
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#36 strikerm3

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:12 PM

SP is capitalization weighted so it has the possiblity to accelerate on the downside and it includes financials so it has components which move with interest rates. Even though it is now managed like a mutual fund, I just like following it anyway.

The Nasdaq 100 is capitalization weighted according to a proprietary formula which can be changed on a quarterly basis. To each his own.

didnt think of it that way, thanks for comments guys.....didnt know about Naz 100 cap weighting changing quarterly.....have a great weekend all.

#37 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:18 PM

Here's a theory:

Maybe the Professional Riverboaters are covering their stock market shorts, closing their positions, and moving over to the Commodities Table:

Wheat:

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#38 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:19 PM

Corn

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#39 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:19 PM

Soybeans

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#40 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:24 PM

Nice little acceleration on the CRB into the close....

It even outran NVDA's intraday parabola.

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#41 MrHanky

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:26 PM

this is what the message boards are like....

IGNORE P/E: You shorts never learn!
by: fala1969 05/09/03 05:22 pm
Msg: 223729 of 223735

Look at AMZN with absolutely no E, moved from $5 to $31 nonstop. Give it a rest. Mo-Mo is here to stay.






this can't possibly last too much longer

Nothing


#42 2 floaters and a sinker

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:26 PM

Here's a theory:

Maybe the Professional Riverboaters are covering their stock market shorts, closing their positions, and moving over to the Commodities Table:

Hot money follows voliltility. And if the perception (out there, not here) is that the market is going to pinned until the elections, that greenspan has put a floor under the market and that it ain't going much higher because of valuations, it would make sense.

Or it's just another sign of total peso collapse. :D

#43 roidrage

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:33 PM

Maybe the Professional Riverboaters are covering their stock market shorts, closing their positions, and moving over to the Commodities Table:

Partying like it's 1975.

#44 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:37 PM

OK, PileDriver

You'll like this one.....

Thanks to Intodeep at Clearstation

Posted Image

Why are the words "Investor" and "Intelligence" used to describe the survey when it's clearly neither ;)

#45 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:38 PM

The thing about the oscillators is that their RSI's are still climbing. Until these indicators roll over, shorting is dangerous, witness NVDA today.

Anyone out there have any suggestions on how to become more "robotic", and completely remove emotions from trading?

Case in point, today I shorted NVDA at 20.50 area in the AM, covered 1/2 at 20 area, and stopped out the remaining at 20.60. I then bought May 22.5 calls for .30 and could have sold them for .45 bid at the close. A nice trade, except for the fact I have yet to be able to trade this way in size that would make a difference.  

I think that I have developed a trading system that works extremely well and could be expected to return between 10% and 50% per month. Yet I have not been able to "supersize" my trading positions.

On a small scale, using this system, I started with $1000 on March 26th. I look for chart patterns based on fibonacci relationships and volume surges. Extremely tight stops and open for re-entry.

After 6 weeks, the $1000 is $3850. The problem I'm having is that I can't mentally scale up to size. In other words, I'm afraid once I put $100,000 on a trade, I'll screw up and not stop out of a losing position. I've been scaling up the initial investment (ie. next trade will be $3850), so I'll eventually get to $100,000 investments.

I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading.

Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

I had the same problem. What I did is I got a trade book and paper traded 150k for about 90 days. You have to be honest with yourself about buy and sell points and make sure that the liquidity is large enough to fill your paper trade. Man, when I made a bad trade and whacked the profit it was like losing real money. Keep perfect records and make sure you record every trade as well as margin charges and trade commissions.

By the way when I went to real money my first 4 trades were losers, after that things smoothed out and I got into the same rythem I was in when it was just paper.

Hope that helps you.

Quicktrade

WH and I also did plenty of thinking on this topic. I think it boils down to:
1. backtesting
2. clearly defined rules
3. inner confidence that it will work.

After we first started developing our trading models, we first spent hours and hours backtesting them to give us the confidence that they work. Paper trading works too, although it's never the same until you've thrown real money at a system.

We wrote out the rules on index cards that are pinned up at eye-level to prevent "cheating" when the trade doesn't work.

In the beginning I was more cautious than WH about throwing real money at it, even though the backtests showed a very promising prognosis. So we started with smallish amounts and as the trades became more successful, it gave me more confidence to be bolder. After three months or so, I asked myself why on earth I didn't believe what the spreadsheets had told us from the start.

We're constantly tinkering at what we do and adding new permutations and combinations, so this is very much an ongoing issue for us. I personally don't think there's anything wrong with under-capitalizing in the beginning until you feel comfortable with what you're doing. After all, until you have sufficient confidence behind what you're doing, you're more likely to make mistakes.

Lastly, we keep detailed records of every trade, including % gain/loss and commissions.

Hope that helps, I'll look forward to reading from others,
MWH





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