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Stretched Out Again


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#16 Slothrop

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:39 PM

Mark is half-joking, I believe. It's a stretch to use e-wave measuring on "indicators" rather than on prices.

#17 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:40 PM

OK, PileDriver

You'll like this one.....

Thanks to Intodeep at Clearstation

Posted Image
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#18 strikerm3

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:42 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Donít try and play around with a wounded or a sick dog. When its bite u donít know if itís got rabbies and how painful it may be. If u want more pain please don't let me stop u.

dont understand that. U mean going long is wrong? SG target just an idea....dont think it hurts anyone to hear an elliot wave take, I see Naz 1610 resistance,no waves necessary, that would be huge on the stocks Im in!!!

Pile, why are you so focused on the S&P?

#19 Slothrop

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:42 PM

Scottcardiff: hard to say. I'm seeing stochastic and MACD at lower levels today than earlier this week or last week.

#20 scottcardiff

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:42 PM

"ABC " Down pattern setting up on the VIX.

A leg = 41 - 23 = 18 points

B leg = 23 to 26

C leg = 26 - 18 = 9


That will be the time to go short.

Dow = 11000
S & P = 1150
Nasdaq = 2500
VIX = 9

Some VIX targets I come up with.

1. Drop from 56 to 26 was 54%. Similar drop from 41 area would be 19

2. Fibo target off of the July 02 VIX top = 16.1

3. Fibo target off of the 2003 VIX double top = 19 area

Note: 19 area is also at bottom of downtrend channel.

4. Descending triangle/head and shoulders patterns on weekly = 9.5 area.

#21 supercolonblow

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:43 PM

Review of weekly charts looks like Tues May 6 intraday highs on spx and Nasdaq have not been taken out.
Rich, nice call on miners on ids end of day. Volume spike on GG right before the close.
Enjoy that steak PD!
Added uspix usprx at close today.
Take her down gently boys so nobody panics!

#22 strikerm3

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:44 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Speaking just for myself, I find that I'm trading retail, banks, tech, etc. , so the SP is more representative of what I trade.

The comp is basically MSFT, DELL, ORCL, QCOM and INTC.
Who really cares anymore? Still overvalued crap, just no volatility.

thanks, just wondering.

#23 scottcardiff

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:44 PM

I got screwed by Fidelity today for the very last time.

Here is the scoop...

At 9:40AM I place an order to short the QQQ's at market looking for a quick strike. Fifteen minutes later and my order still has not filled, so I call the 'gold account' team. I am informed that they are having system problems and that he would call down to the floor and cancel the order for me. Twenty-five minutes later at 10:25 AM I get an email informing me that my short on the QQQ's has been filled at the low print of the day. I call back to complain and in essence get told, sorry pal--maybe we can adjust the trade back to 28.10--but I will have to wait 24-hours to find out as they have lots of other disputed orders to review beside mine.

Of course I cannot prove it--but it sure does seem convenient that the MM would hold my market order for 45 minutes until just exactly the low tick of the day and then execute just as the squeeze began.

Yeah, I am pissed...and this is not the first time those crooks have done this to me.

Can anyone recommend a bear-friendly brokerage?

:angry:

Tradestation works great. Direct Access Trading Platform. Ameritrade works well also.

#24 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:45 PM

Mark/Sloth

I know Mark was joking. I was too :wink2:

But seriously, these stats are insane! :lol:

#25 rayok

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:45 PM

Well, duh! :P

#26 Quicktrade

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:52 PM

The thing about the oscillators is that their RSI's are still climbing. Until these indicators roll over, shorting is dangerous, witness NVDA today.

Anyone out there have any suggestions on how to become more "robotic", and completely remove emotions from trading?

Case in point, today I shorted NVDA at 20.50 area in the AM, covered 1/2 at 20 area, and stopped out the remaining at 20.60. I then bought May 22.5 calls for .30 and could have sold them for .45 bid at the close. A nice trade, except for the fact I have yet to be able to trade this way in size that would make a difference.

I think that I have developed a trading system that works extremely well and could be expected to return between 10% and 50% per month. Yet I have not been able to "supersize" my trading positions.

On a small scale, using this system, I started with $1000 on March 26th. I look for chart patterns based on fibonacci relationships and volume surges. Extremely tight stops and open for re-entry.

After 6 weeks, the $1000 is $3850. The problem I'm having is that I can't mentally scale up to size. In other words, I'm afraid once I put $100,000 on a trade, I'll screw up and not stop out of a losing position. I've been scaling up the initial investment (ie. next trade will be $3850), so I'll eventually get to $100,000 investments.

I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading.

Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

I had the same problem. What I did is I got a trade book and paper traded 150k for about 90 days. You have to be honest with yourself about buy and sell points and make sure that the liquidity is large enough to fill your paper trade. Man, when I made a bad trade and whacked the profit it was like losing real money. Keep perfect records and make sure you record every trade as well as margin charges and trade commissions.

By the way when I went to real money my first 4 trades were losers, after that things smoothed out and I got into the same rythem I was in when it was just paper.

Hope that helps you.

Quicktrade

#27 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:52 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Donít try and play around with a wounded or a sick dog. When its bite u donít know if itís got rabbies and how painful it may be. If u want more pain please don't let me stop u.

dont understand that. U mean going long is wrong? SG target just an idea....dont think it hurts anyone to hear an elliot wave take, I see Naz 1610 resistance,no waves necessary, that would be huge on the stocks Im in!!!

Pile, why are you so focused on the S&P?

Cuz unlike Nasty it has less upside risk and more downside reward once the bowels start moving again :lol:

Always consider risk-adjusted return. Somebody who used to be on this board had no clue to that fact.

Just compare RYTPX vs. RYVNX and tell me who is less likely to get burned and who is more likely to come out ahead in the long run w/o incessant market timing and trading which by the way leads to errors and losses.

I think that certain person who was once on this board can attest to that fact as he experienced them himself, I'm sure.

Stop micro-timing the market and start spending more time on making good picks. :lol:

#28 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:55 PM

OK, PileDriver

You'll like this one.....

Thanks to Intodeep at Clearstation

Posted Image

that's better :wink2:

And it doesn't even consider the "boner" popped 5/1 - 5/6 :lol:

Its probably now 60% bulls and 0% bears :grin:

#29 roidrage

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:58 PM

Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

SP is capitalization weighted so it has the possiblity to accelerate on the downside and it includes financials so it has components which move with interest rates. Even though it is now managed like a mutual fund, I just like following it anyway.

The Nasdaq 100 is capitalization weighted according to a proprietary formula which can be changed on a quarterly basis. To each his own.

#30 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 05:00 PM

SP is capitalization weighted so it has the possiblity to accelerate on the downside and it includes financials so it has components which move with interest rates.   Even though it is now managed like a mutual fund, I just like following it anyway.

The Nasdaq 100 is capitalization weighted according to a proprietary formula which can be changed on a quarterly basis.  To each his own.

...that too!

Plus playing Nasty isn't worth the headache. Played out whore.

SPX is only down ~33% from all time highs, its got a bit of catching up to do.





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